Opinion - Why U.S.-Mexico energy interdependence must be strengthened
Over the last decade, the U.S. has emerged as an energy superpower, not only in terms of production but also as a dominant exporter of natural gas and refined petroleum products. This transformation has redefined the U.S. trade balance in energy, turning a long-standing deficit into a robust surplus.
Nowhere is this shift more consequential than in the U.S.-Mexico energy relationship.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates that natural gas exports to Mexico reached 199.2 billion cubic feet in January. That number is stunning when we consider that in January of 1990, the U.S. exported less than 1 billion cubic feet to Mexico, and by January 2012 was still only exporting 23.4 billion.
Today, Mexico imports more than 70 percent of its natural gas from the U.S., and a significant share of its gasoline, diesel and jet fuel as well, valued at $33.63 billion in 2024. These imports are not a luxury — they are essential for Mexico's industrial growth, transportation system and power generation.
For Mexico, reliable access to competitively priced U.S. energy is essential to sustaining economic growth, enabling industrial competitiveness and stabilizing the electric grid. At the same time, for the U.S., Mexico has become an indispensable customer, so much so that any downturn in Mexican demand would ripple through U.S. refineries, gas producers and the infrastructure companies that have built pipelines and terminals to serve the southern market.
This is a story of mutual interdependence, yet it is too often overlooked in political and policy debates in both countries. In times of flux for U.S foreign relations, and with a Mexican government committed to the principle of energy sovereignty, it is worth recognizing that the energy trade across our shared border is one of the most strategically important economic relationships we have — and one that deserves proactive stewardship.
Mexico's demand for natural gas has grown dramatically in recent years, driven by a combination of industrial expansion and the shift from oil-fired to gas-fired electricity generation. Yet domestic production has not kept pace.
Pemex, the state-owned oil and gas company, continues to underperform and investment in gas exploration and production has plummeted, while private investment has struggled to gain traction amid regulatory uncertainty. As a result, imports from the United States have filled the gap, with cross-border pipeline flows reaching record highs.
In 2024, the U.S. exported over 1 million barrels per day of refined petroleum products to Mexico, making it the single largest market for U.S. refiners. Mexico's aging refinery fleet cannot keep up with domestic demand for gasoline and other products.
The new Olmeca refinery at Dos Bocas, Tabasco, offers hope for Mexican refining, but without ongoing investment, other Mexican refineries will continue to operate at well below their capacity. Gasoline exports from the U.S. will continue to be essential for Mexico for many years to come.
The stakes are high. Mexico's manufacturing sector, including its booming automotive and aerospace industries, depends on stable and affordable energy. So does the everyday functioning of its economy.
If energy supplies were to falter due to political decisions, infrastructure failures or global price shocks, Mexico's economy would slow, with cascading effects across the region.
For U.S. gas producers and refiners, Mexico represents more than a convenient export market — it is a crucial buffer against domestic oversupply and price volatility.
The shale revolution has unlocked massive quantities of gas in Texas, Louisiana and Appalachia. Meanwhile, U.S. refineries, particularly along the Gulf Coast, are some of the most efficient and high-capacity facilities in the world. They depend on consistent offtake to remain profitable.
The symbiosis is clear: Mexico needs reliable energy imports to power its economy, and the United States benefits enormously from growing Mexican demand.
This dynamic has created jobs on both sides of the border, from Texas gas fields to Mexican manufacturing plants. It has also fostered deeper integration of infrastructure, with cross-border pipelines, rail links and storage facilities, with much more investment needed in the coming years.
Yet this interdependence is not without risk. In recent years, political uncertainty and nationalist rhetoric have threatened to disrupt the flow of energy trade. Mexico's efforts to reassert state control over its energy sector, including revisions to electricity market rules, slow permitting for private infrastructure, and the nationalization of certain assets, have introduced friction into what was once a smooth and expanding partnership.
In the U.S., political calls for energy dominance sometimes overlook the benefits of energy exports, while cross-border trade issues ranging from tariffs to environmental disputes can add further complexity. Climate-related concerns and the energy transition add another layer, as both countries seek to balance fossil fuel trade with renewable energy goals.
If Mexico's economy stumbles due to political instability, energy shortages, or falling investment, demand for U.S. gas and fuel will decline. And that could spell trouble for American producers and workers who depend on that export income.
Rather than retreating into nationalist positions or letting the energy relationship drift, policymakers on both sides of the border should treat U.S.-Mexico energy interdependence as a strategic asset.
This means ensuring policy stability and regulatory cooperation to maintain open energy trade channels. It means investing in cross-border infrastructure and exploring joint ventures in storage, liquefied natural gas and clean energy to future-proof the relationship. It means reinvigorating the bilateral energy dialogue to manage risks and formally strengthening the energy relationship through the USMCA review.
In the years ahead, Mexico will need more energy to power its ambitions, and the U.S. is uniquely positioned to supply it. But that relationship must be nurtured, not taken for granted.
A strong, growing Mexico is good for the U.S. And a thriving U.S. energy sector is good for Mexico. The energy relationship that binds our countries is not just a pipeline, but a shared economic future. Let's protect it.
Duncan Wood is an independent analyst and former president of the Pacific Council on International Policy.
Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Yahoo
7 hours ago
- Yahoo
Election of Mexico's first Indigenous Supreme Court justice in 170 years raises hope and skepticism
MEXICO CITY (AP) — In his campaign for Mexico's Supreme Court, Hugo Aguilar sent a simple message: He would be the one to finally give Indigenous Mexicans a voice at one of the highest levels of government. 'It's our turn as Indigenous people ... to make decisions in this country,' he said in the lead up to Sunday's first judicial elections in Mexican history. Now, the 52-year-old Aguilar, a lawyer from the Mixtec people in Mexico's southern Oaxaca state, will be the first Indigenous Supreme Court justice in nearly 170 years in the Latin American nation, according to Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum. He could lead the high court. The last Indigenous justice to do so was Mexican hero and former President Benito Juárez, who ran the court from 1857 to 1858. For some, Aguilar has become a symbol of hope for 23 million Indigenous people long on the forgotten fringes of Mexican society. But others fiercely criticize his past, and worry that instead of representing them, he will instead stand with the ruling party, Morena, that ushered him onto the court. Top vote getter in controversial contest Supporters cite Aguilar's long history of working on Indigenous rights, while critics say that more recently he's helped push the governing party's agenda, including former President Andrés Manuel López Obrador's massive infrastructure projects, at the expense of Indigenous communities. Aguilar's team said he would not comment until after official results were confirmed. 'He's not an Indigenous candidate,' said Francisco López Bárcenas, a distinguished Mixtec lawyer from the same region as Aguilar who once worked with him decades ago. He applauded the election of an Indigenous justice, but said 'He's an Indigenous man who became a candidate.' Aguilar was elected in Mexico's first judicial election, a process that's been criticized as weakening Mexico's system of checks and balances. López Obrador and his party overhauled the judicial system the populist leader was long at odds with. Instead of appointing judges through experience, voters elected judges to 2,600 federal, state and local positions. But the vote was marked by a very low voter turnout, about 13%. López Obrador and his successor and protege President Claudia Sheinbaum claimed the election would cut corruption in the courts. Judges, watchdogs and political opposition called it a blatant attempt to use the party's political popularity to stack courts in their favor, and gain control of all three branches of Mexico's government. While votes are still being counted in many races, the tally of results for nine Supreme Court justices came in first. The vast majority of the justices hold strong ties to the ruling party, handing Morena potential control over the high court. Aguilar's name was among those that appeared on pamphlets suggesting which candidates to vote for, which electoral authorities are investigating. A focus on Indigenous rights Aguilar scooped up more than 6 million votes, more than any other candidate, including three who currently serve on the Supreme Court. The victory opened the possibility of Aguilar not just serving on the court, but leading it. Critics attributed his win to Mexico's highly popular president repeatedly saying she wanted an Indigenous judge on the Supreme Court in the lead up to the election. On Wednesday she said she was thrilled he was on the court. 'He is a very good lawyer,' she said. 'I have the privilege of knowing his work not just on Indigenous issues, but in general. He has wide knowledge and is a modest and simple man.' The Supreme Court has handed down decisions that, for example, establish the right of Indigenous people to be assisted by interpreters who speak their native language and defense attorneys in any legal process. But there remain significant outstanding issues like territorial disputes in cases of mega-projects. Aguilar began his career in Oaxaca's capital, working for SERmixe, an organization advocating for Indigenous rights as a law student in his mid-20s. Sofía Robles, a member of the organization remembers young Aguilar being passionate, choosing to be a lawyer to advocate for Indigenous communities often living in poverty and out of reach of the law. 'He had this conviction, and there were many things he wouldn't conform with,' 63-year-old Robles said. 'From the very beginning, he knew where he came from.' Despite coming from a humble working-class family, he would work for the organization for free after his law classes. He later worked there as a lawyer on agrarian issues for 13 years. After the Zapatista uprising in 1994, a guerrilla movement fighting for Indigenous rights in southern Mexico, Aguilar worked to carry out constitutional reforms recognizing the basic rights of Mexico's Indigenous people. Robles said she believes he will bring that fight she saw in him to the Supreme Court. 'He gives us hope,' she said. 'Aguilar is going to be an example for future generations.' Ties to governing party But others like Romel González Díaz, a member of the Xpujil Indigenous Council in a Mayan community in southern Mexico, cast doubt on if Aguilar would truly act as a voice for their community. Aguilar's work came under fire when he joined the government's National Institute of Indigenous Peoples at the beginning of López Obrador's administration in 2018. It was then that he began to work on a mega-project known as the Maya Train fiercely criticized by environmentalists, Indigenous communities and even the United Nations. The train, which runs in a rough loop around the Yucatan peninsula, has deforested large swathes of jungle and irreversibly damaged an ancient cave system sacred to Indigenous populations there. Aguilar was tasked with investigating the potential impacts of the train, hearing the concerns of local Indigenous communities and informing them of the consequences. That was when González Díaz met Aguilar, who arrived with a handful of government officials, who sat down for just a few hours with his small community in Xpujil, and provided sparse details about the negative parts of the project. González Díaz's organization was among many to take legal action against the government in an attempt to block train construction for not properly studying the project's impacts. The environmental destruction left in the project's wake is something that continues to fuel his distrust for Aguilar. 'The concern with Hugo is: Who is he going to represent?' González Díaz said. 'Is he going to represent the (Morena) party or is he going to represent the Indigenous people?'
7 hours ago
Election of Mexico's first Indigenous Supreme Court justice in 170 years raises hope and skepticism
MEXICO CITY -- In his campaign for Mexico's Supreme Court, Hugo Aguilar sent a simple message: He would be the one to finally give Indigenous Mexicans a voice at one of the highest levels of government. 'It's our turn as Indigenous people ... to make decisions in this country,' he said in the lead up to Sunday's first judicial elections in Mexican history. Now, the 52-year-old Aguilar, a lawyer from the Mixtec people in Mexico's southern Oaxaca state, will be the first Indigenous Supreme Court justice in nearly 170 years in the Latin American nation, according to Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum. He could lead the high court. The last Indigenous justice to do so was Mexican hero and former President Benito Juárez, who ran the court from 1857 to 1858. For some, Aguilar has become a symbol of hope for 23 million Indigenous people long on the forgotten fringes of Mexican society. But others fiercely criticize his past, and worry that instead of representing them, he will instead stand with the ruling party, Morena, that ushered him onto the court. Supporters cite Aguilar's long history of working on Indigenous rights, while critics say that more recently he's helped push the governing party's agenda, including former President Andrés Manuel López Obrador's massive infrastructure projects, at the expense of Indigenous communities. Aguilar's team said he would not comment until after official results were confirmed. 'He's not an Indigenous candidate,' said Francisco López Bárcenas, a distinguished Mixtec lawyer from the same region as Aguilar who once worked with him decades ago. He applauded the election of an Indigenous justice, but said 'He's an Indigenous man who became a candidate.' Aguilar was elected in Mexico's first judicial election, a process that's been criticized as weakening Mexico's system of checks and balances. López Obrador and his party overhauled the judicial system the populist leader was long at odds with. Instead of appointing judges through experience, voters elected judges to 2,600 federal, state and local positions. But the vote was marked by a very low voter turnout, about 13%. López Obrador and his successor and protege President Claudia Sheinbaum claimed the election would cut corruption in the courts. Judges, watchdogs and political opposition called it a blatant attempt to use the party's political popularity to stack courts in their favor, and gain control of all three branches of Mexico's government. While votes are still being counted in many races, the tally of results for nine Supreme Court justices came in first. The vast majority of the justices hold strong ties to the ruling party, handing Morena potential control over the high court. Aguilar's name was among those that appeared on pamphlets suggesting which candidates to vote for, which electoral authorities are investigating. Aguilar scooped up more than 6 million votes, more than any other candidate, including three who currently serve on the Supreme Court. The victory opened the possibility of Aguilar not just serving on the court, but leading it. Critics attributed his win to Mexico's highly popular president repeatedly saying she wanted an Indigenous judge on the Supreme Court in the lead up to the election. On Wednesday she said she was thrilled he was on the court. 'He is a very good lawyer,' she said. 'I have the privilege of knowing his work not just on Indigenous issues, but in general. He has wide knowledge and is a modest and simple man.' The Supreme Court has handed down decisions that, for example, establish the right of Indigenous people to be assisted by interpreters who speak their native language and defense attorneys in any legal process. But there remain significant outstanding issues like territorial disputes in cases of mega-projects. Aguilar began his career in Oaxaca's capital, working for SERmixe, an organization advocating for Indigenous rights as a law student in his mid-20s. Sofía Robles, a member of the organization remembers young Aguilar being passionate, choosing to be a lawyer to advocate for Indigenous communities often living in poverty and out of reach of the law. 'He had this conviction, and there were many things he wouldn't conform with,' 63-year-old Robles said. 'From the very beginning, he knew where he came from.' Despite coming from a humble working-class family, he would work for the organization for free after his law classes. He later worked there as a lawyer on agrarian issues for 13 years. After the Zapatista uprising in 1994, a guerrilla movement fighting for Indigenous rights in southern Mexico, Aguilar worked to carry out constitutional reforms recognizing the basic rights of Mexico's Indigenous people. Robles said she believes he will bring that fight she saw in him to the Supreme Court. 'He gives us hope,' she said. 'Aguilar is going to be an example for future generations.' But others like Romel González Díaz, a member of the Xpujil Indigenous Council in a Mayan community in southern Mexico, cast doubt on if Aguilar would truly act as a voice for their community. Aguilar's work came under fire when he joined the government's National Institute of Indigenous Peoples at the beginning of López Obrador's administration in 2018. It was then that he began to work on a mega-project known as the Maya Train fiercely criticized by environmentalists, Indigenous communities and even the United Nations. The train, which runs in a rough loop around the Yucatan peninsula, has deforested large swathes of jungle and irreversibly damaged an ancient cave system sacred to Indigenous populations there. Aguilar was tasked with investigating the potential impacts of the train, hearing the concerns of local Indigenous communities and informing them of the consequences. That was when González Díaz met Aguilar, who arrived with a handful of government officials, who sat down for just a few hours with his small community in Xpujil, and provided sparse details about the negative parts of the project. González Díaz's organization was among many to take legal action against the government in an attempt to block train construction for not properly studying the project's impacts. The environmental destruction left in the project's wake is something that continues to fuel his distrust for Aguilar. 'The concern with Hugo is: Who is he going to represent?' González Díaz said. 'Is he going to represent the (Morena) party or is he going to represent the Indigenous people?'
Hamilton Spectator
7 hours ago
- Hamilton Spectator
Election of Mexico's first Indigenous Supreme Court justice in 170 years raises hope and skepticism
MEXICO CITY (AP) — In his campaign for Mexico's Supreme Court, Hugo Aguilar sent a simple message: He would be the one to finally give Indigenous Mexicans a voice at one of the highest levels of government. 'It's our turn as Indigenous people ... to make decisions in this country,' he said in the lead up to Sunday's first judicial elections in Mexican history. Now, the 52-year-old Aguilar, a lawyer from the Mixtec people in Mexico's southern Oaxaca state, will be the first Indigenous Supreme Court justice in nearly 170 years in the Latin American nation, according to Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum. He could lead the high court. The last Indigenous justice to do so was Mexican hero and former President Benito Juárez, who ran the court from 1857 to 1858. For some, Aguilar has become a symbol of hope for 23 million Indigenous people long on the forgotten fringes of Mexican society. But others fiercely criticize his past, and worry that instead of representing them, he will instead stand with the ruling party, Morena, that ushered him onto the court. Top vote getter in controversial contest Supporters cite Aguilar's long history of working on Indigenous rights, while critics say that more recently he's helped push the governing party's agenda, including former President Andrés Manuel López Obrador's massive infrastructure projects, at the expense of Indigenous communities. Aguilar's team said he would not comment until after official results were confirmed. 'He's not an Indigenous candidate,' said Francisco López Bárcenas, a distinguished Mixtec lawyer from the same region as Aguilar who once worked with him decades ago. He applauded the election of an Indigenous justice, but said 'He's an Indigenous man who became a candidate.' Aguilar was elected in Mexico's first judicial election, a process that's been criticized as weakening Mexico's system of checks and balances. López Obrador and his party overhauled the judicial system the populist leader was long at odds with. Instead of appointing judges through experience, voters elected judges to 2,600 federal, state and local positions. But the vote was marked by a very low voter turnout, about 13%. López Obrador and his successor and protege President Claudia Sheinbaum claimed the election would cut corruption in the courts. Judges, watchdogs and political opposition called it a blatant attempt to use the party's political popularity to stack courts in their favor, and gain control of all three branches of Mexico's government. While votes are still being counted in many races, the tally of results for nine Supreme Court justices came in first. The vast majority of the justices hold strong ties to the ruling party, handing Morena potential control over the high court. Aguilar's name was among those that appeared on pamphlets suggesting which candidates to vote for, which electoral authorities are investigating. A focus on Indigenous rights Aguilar scooped up more than 6 million votes, more than any other candidate, including three who currently serve on the Supreme Court. The victory opened the possibility of Aguilar not just serving on the court, but leading it. Critics attributed his win to Mexico's highly popular president repeatedly saying she wanted an Indigenous judge on the Supreme Court in the lead up to the election. On Wednesday she said she was thrilled he was on the court. 'He is a very good lawyer,' she said. 'I have the privilege of knowing his work not just on Indigenous issues, but in general. He has wide knowledge and is a modest and simple man.' The Supreme Court has handed down decisions that, for example, establish the right of Indigenous people to be assisted by interpreters who speak their native language and defense attorneys in any legal process. But there remain significant outstanding issues like territorial disputes in cases of mega-projects. Aguilar began his career in Oaxaca's capital, working for SERmixe, an organization advocating for Indigenous rights as a law student in his mid-20s. Sofía Robles, a member of the organization remembers young Aguilar being passionate, choosing to be a lawyer to advocate for Indigenous communities often living in poverty and out of reach of the law. 'He had this conviction, and there were many things he wouldn't conform with,' 63-year-old Robles said. 'From the very beginning, he knew where he came from.' Despite coming from a humble working-class family, he would work for the organization for free after his law classes. He later worked there as a lawyer on agrarian issues for 13 years. After the Zapatista uprising in 1994, a guerrilla movement fighting for Indigenous rights in southern Mexico, Aguilar worked to carry out constitutional reforms recognizing the basic rights of Mexico's Indigenous people. Robles said she believes he will bring that fight she saw in him to the Supreme Court. 'He gives us hope,' she said. 'Aguilar is going to be an example for future generations.' Ties to governing party But others like Romel González Díaz, a member of the Xpujil Indigenous Council in a Mayan community in southern Mexico, cast doubt on if Aguilar would truly act as a voice for their community. Aguilar's work came under fire when he joined the government's National Institute of Indigenous Peoples at the beginning of López Obrador's administration in 2018. It was then that he began to work on a mega-project known as the Maya Train fiercely criticized by environmentalists, Indigenous communities and even the United Nations. The train, which runs in a rough loop around the Yucatan peninsula, has deforested large swathes of jungle and irreversibly damaged an ancient cave system sacred to Indigenous populations there. Aguilar was tasked with investigating the potential impacts of the train, hearing the concerns of local Indigenous communities and informing them of the consequences. That was when González Díaz met Aguilar, who arrived with a handful of government officials, who sat down for just a few hours with his small community in Xpujil, and provided sparse details about the negative parts of the project. González Díaz's organization was among many to take legal action against the government in an attempt to block train construction for not properly studying the project's impacts. The environmental destruction left in the project's wake is something that continues to fuel his distrust for Aguilar. 'The concern with Hugo is: Who is he going to represent?' González Díaz said. 'Is he going to represent the (Morena) party or is he going to represent the Indigenous people?' Error! Sorry, there was an error processing your request. There was a problem with the recaptcha. Please try again. You may unsubscribe at any time. By signing up, you agree to our terms of use and privacy policy . This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google privacy policy and terms of service apply. Want more of the latest from us? Sign up for more at our newsletter page .
