Dollar lower as ME conflict continues
NEW YORK: The US dollar traded mostly lower against the yen and edged higher against the Swiss franc on Wednesday as fighting between Israel and Iran spurred investors to scoop up safe havens, while a pending Federal Reserve rates decision restrained volatility.
Israel has bombarded arch-enemy Iran over the past six days to halt its nuclear activity and has asserted the need for a change of government in the Islamic Republic.
The US military is also bolstering its presence in the region, Reuters reported, stirring speculation about US intervention that investors fear could widen the conflict in an area with critical energy resources, supply chains and infrastructure.
Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said in a statement read by a state television presenter on Wednesday that his country would not accept US President Donald Trump's call for an unconditional surrender.
The dollar has resumed its role as a safe haven, having gained around 1% against both the Japanese yen and Swiss franc since last Thursday. On Wednesday, the US currency took a breather, edging fractionally lower against the yen and the franc and more noticeably so against the euro and the pound.
'A lot of the (dollar's) safe haven appeal has faded, and that's why the move has been relatively limited so far,' said Matt Weller, global head of market research at StoneX.
'I think traders are just coming around to that realization and looking ahead to what I expect to be a very dovish hold from the Federal Reserve this afternoon.'
Against a basket of six other major currencies, the dollar is still down around 8% so far this year, as confidence in the US economy and the reliability of Trump's administration as a trading and diplomatic partner has faded.
With the Fed's decision on interest rates just hours away and US markets closed on Thursday for the Juneteenth federal holiday, activity in currencies was muted.
Against the yen, the dollar fell 0.27% to 144.88 and was steady against the franc at 0.8169 francs.
Traders expect the US central bank to leave borrowing costs unchanged and will parse what Chair Jerome Powell says about the outlook for growth and inflation.
Uncertainty was already running high and recent data have begun to show the impact of Trump's erratic approach to trade and tariffs. The escalation of conflict in the Middle East, and the surge in crude oil prices to about $75 a barrel, have further complicated the picture for policymakers.
'I think everyone had expected they would shift dovish, but just given the CPI report and some of the underlying employment data recently, with the Iran situation kicking off and oil prices higher, we'll see how the Fed threads the needle,' said Brad Bechtel, global head of FX, at Jefferies.
'But I think most would expect they're going to be keeping their options open, remaining a little more cautious, which probably doesn't impact the dollar too much.'
The dollar kept to weaker ranges even after data showed the number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits fell, but stayed elevated.
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Business Recorder
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