FACT CHECK: Are politicians' claims about Scottish education data really true?
Pam Duncan-Glancy said that 'attainment in schools is declining' and that 'the attainment gap is widening.' She then went on to give a number of specific examples to back up her claim.
'…overall positive destinations are down…'
True.
The percentage of pupils in an initial positive destination for 2023/24 was 95.7%, down from 95.9% the previous year, confirming a decline of 0.2 percentage points.
'…more pupils left school with no qualifications than ever before…'
False.
The number leaving with no qualifications at or above SCQF level 3 has been increasing and is now higher than almost every other year, but is still lower than the figures from 2009/10.
In 2023/24 a total of 2.4% left school with no qualifications at level 3 or higher, which is up from 2.2% in both 2022/23 and in the final pre-pandemic year of 2018/19. In 2009/10 the figure was 2.8 percent.
'…fewer pupils left with one pass or more at SCQF levels 5 and 6…'
True.
The percentage who left school last year with at least one level 5 qualification was 83.5%, which was a decline from the 84.8% recorded the previous year.
The number achieving at least one level 6 qualification (which includes Highers) fell from 57.9% to 57.4%. Both figures are now at their lowest level since 2012/13.
'…and the gap in attaining a pass or more at those levels is up…'
True.
In terms of those leaving with at least one level 5 qualification, the gap between the most affluent and most deprived pupils is now 22.7 percentage points, which is higher than at any point in the last decade.
For level 6 qualifications the gap is 38.4 percentage points, which is the highest it has been since 2015/16.
'…Modern Apprenticeship starts are down…'
True.
Between April 2023 and March 2024 a total of 25,507 Modern Apprenticeships were commended. In the previous year, the number recorded was 25,365.
'…youth unemployment is up…'
True.
School leaver data shows that 4% were unemployed after three months, which is an increase of 0.2 percentage points on the previous year. Labour market statistics covering October 2022 to September 2023 also show that unemployment for those aged 16-24 increased by 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous year.
In response to these claims, Jenny Gilruth pushed back and argued that the situation with attainment and opportunity in Scottish education is much more positive.
'…the proportion of pupils achieving the expected level in literacy and numeracy across primary and secondary schools reached its highest level ever in 2023/24…'
Partly true.
The figures that Jenny Gilruth talks about have never been higher, but some are equal to the levels recorded in previous years. In primary schools, 74 percent of pupils met the expected standard in literacy, and this is indeed the highest level ever recorded. In numeracy, 80 percent of primary pupils reach the expected standard, which is the joint-highest level recorded alongside the figure for last year – although if we stop rounding to whole numbers, the data does show a small increase in the most recent year.
In secondary school, 88 percent of S3 pupils meet the expected standard in literacy, which is the same as the level from the previous year, and just one percentage point higher than the levels recorded for 2016/17. If we look specifically at Reading levels (which are one of three components of literacy scores) we actually see that there has been a decline since 2018/19. For numeracy, the number achieving the expected level is 90 percent, which is equal to the figure for 2018/19 and higher than other years.
It is important to note that the government changed the way it records this information when Nicola Sturgeon was First Minister, so when Jenny Gilruth refers to the 'highest ever' levels she is discussing data that only goes back to 2016/17.
'…the poverty-related attainment gap between young people from the most and least deprived areas meeting standards in literacy has also reached record levels…'
True. (It is reasonable to assume that Jenny Gilruth meant 'record lows')
For primary literacy the gap is 20.2 percentage points, just beating the previous low of 20.5 percentage points; amongst secondary pupils, the literacy gap is 12.7 percentage points, which is just over half a percentage point lower than the previous record of 13.3 points.
'…the gap in relation to our secondary pupils achieving third level in terms of literacy and numeracy has reached record lows too…'
True.
The attainment gap for secondary school literacy is 12 percentage points, while the previous low was 13.5 percentage points in 2017/18.
'…the percentage of those in a positive destination three months after leaving schools is 95.7% - that's the second highest since records began…'
Partly true.
The percentage in a positive destination was 0.2 percentage points higher last year, but otherwise the 95.7 percent recorded for 2023/24 is higher than all previous years with the exception of 2021/22, when the figure was also 95.7 percent.
'…the ACEL data tells us a much more positive story…'
True.
This refers to Achievement of Curriculum for Excellence Levels (ACEL), and is the source of the claims about literacy and numeracy levels in primary and secondary schools. This measurement system was introduced by the Scottish Government after Nicola Sturgeon promised to close the attainment gap and asked to be judged on her record for doing so. As part of these changes, the government scrapped the objective, national data that was previously generated by the Scottish Survey of Literacy and Numeracy and introduced a system that is much more subjective, far less precise, and much more open to manipulation. ACEL data does tell a much more positive story, but many would argue that this is because it was designed to do that very job.
'…when we look for example at examinations data as well we are seeing a trajectory post-pandemic of improvement…'
False.
The pass rate for Highers has declined in each of the past three years and in 2024 stood at 74.9 percent. This is 0.1 percentage points up on the figure from 2019, but is significantly lower than the rates recorded in the rest of the pre-pandemic period (2016, 2017, and 2018). The overall Higher attainment gap is now larger than at any point since the new qualifications were introduced nearly a decade ago.
At National 5, the overall pass rate is the lowest ever recorded and the attainment gap is higher than it has ever been. The same is true for Advanced Higher.
In terms of overall examinations data, things have been getting worse in the post-pandemic period, not better.
Data sources:
School leaver data (positive destinations and leaver attainment of qualifications)
Achievement of Curriculum for Excellence Levels (Literacy and numeracy)
Modern Apprenticeships statistics
Youth unemployment labour market data
Examinations data
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