Israel's trying to wipe out Iran's nuke program. It won't be an easy kill.

Business Insider

15 hours ago

Israel launched an air assault against Iran early Friday morning that officials said is intended to damage Tehran's nuclear program.
Hundreds of Israeli warplanes participated in a series of widespread airstrikes targeting sites associated with Iran's nuclear and missile programs, as well as military leaders and air defense systems, in a major escalation that has already drawn a retaliatory attack from Tehran.
Specifically, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that his forces "struck at the heart" of the country's nuclear enrichment and weaponization programs, and targeted its main enrichment facility at Natanz. The extent of the damage is unclear so far, but analysts said it appeared to be limited based on satellite imagery.
Netanyahu had long pushed for a military approach to Iran's nuclear program, as opposed to the deal that the Trump administration was hoping to settle to prevent Tehran from building nuclear weapons.
Iran has said that its nuclear program is for civilian purposes.
However, military and nuclear experts say firepower alone won't be enough to completely wipe out Iran's nuclear program. It has many scientists with nuclear expertise and has stored its most critical facilities in bunkers buried deep underground.
This makes the facilities particularly challenging targets that, from the air, can only be reached by the largest bunker busters, which Israel lacks, or repeated strikes in the same spots.
Natanz, home to Iran's largest uranium enrichment site, is located several floors underground in the center of the country. The Israel Defense Forces said its airstrikes damaged an underground area of the facility that contains an enrichment hall with centrifuges, electrical rooms, and additional infrastructure.
Satellite imagery captured on Friday revealed what appears to be significant damage at Natanz, but only on the surface.
Overnight, Israeli strikes reportedly targeted strategic Iranian sites, including the Natanz nuclear facility, Iran's primary center for uranium enrichment. High-resolution imagery from @AirbusDefence, captured on June 13, 2025, reveals significant damage to the facility. pic.twitter.com/L7y9V64NIq
— Open Source Centre (@osc_london) June 13, 2025
Iran's other main enrichment site, Fordow, is buried even deeper in the side of a mountain and is the country's most "hardened" facility, said Darya Dolzikova, a senior research fellow for proliferation and nuclear policy at the UK-based Royal United Services Institute think tank.
In comments shared with Business Insider, Dolzikova said Fordow has not been affected by the Israeli strikes, nor have other locations. "Should Iran make a decision to produce a nuclear weapon, it would likely do that at hardened and potentially still secret sites," she said.
It's unclear what air-to-ground munitions Israel used to strike Natanz and the other targets affiliated with Iran's nuclear program. However, it would take a very large bunker-buster bomb to reach underground and destroy the more hardened sites.
The likely best weapon for the job is the US military's GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator, one of the most powerful non-nuclear bombs and the largest bunker buster in America's arsenal at 15 tons. These munitions can only be carried by the B-2 Spirit stealth bomber and the B-21 Raider in development.
Israel doesn't have bomber aircraft capable of carrying the largest bunker-buster munitions. The IDF shared footage showing its fighter jets — F-35s, F-16s, and F-15s — taking off and landing during the strikes. Weapons experts pointed out that some of the aircraft appear to be carrying 2,000-pound guided bombs. Israel's F-15I, though, can carry 4,000-pound anti-bunker bombs.
Military analysts with RUSI estimated in March that the Fordow site could be as deep as 260 feet underground, likely beyond the reach of even America's MOP. Damaging it would almost certainly require repeated strikes, likely over days or weeks.
US officials said Washington was not involved in the Israeli strikes. Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned Iran not to retaliate against American forces in the region, something Tehran and its allies have done in the past.
The US Navy has one aircraft carrier and six surface warships in the Middle East right now. These assets are capable of providing air defense in the event of a larger Iranian response. So far, Tehran has retaliated by launching dozens of drones at Israel.
Beyond the nuclear sites, Israeli officials said forces also went after other high-profile Iranian targets, including its top scientists, senior military commanders, air defenses, and ballistic missile program.