WNBA playoff outlook: Which teams have the easiest path to the postseason? What about home-court advantage?

Yahoo

6 days ago

With the WNBA postseason starting on September 14, the fight for playoff spots and seeding will only ratchet up in the coming weeks. One of the biggest factors in who makes it in and who gets home-court advantage is the remaining schedule. The uneven nature of the 2025 slate means that the teams who are traveling and facing top teams in the home stretch may have a tougher time.
The WNBA playoffs are structured differently from the NBA. The top eight teams, regardless of conference, move into the postseason. The rest of the format is familiar, with the team with the best record getting the top seed and home-court advantage throughout.
There will be two changes in the playoffs this year. The finals will increase from five to seven games, with a 2-2-1-1-1 format, meaning the higher seed would host the first two games, and the lower seed would get the next two, and then they will go back and forth with the higher seed getting to host a potential Game 7.
The first round will feature a 1-1-1 structure, so the higher seed will host the first and, if needed, third game. (In the previous playoff format, the lower-seeded team wouldn't get any games at home unless they took one of the first two games, which were on the road.)
The new format for the first round means getting home-court advantage isn't quite as important, as teams will now need to travel for at least one game, regardless of the seed. Still, teams will want to make it into the top four just for the chance to play more games at home, so let's take a look at the teams fighting for that all-important fourth playoff spot.
Phoenix Mercury
Current record and standing: 16-9; 3rd
Most important game: August 17 at Seattle
Outlook: The good news for Phoenix is that they have the easiest remaining schedule based on their opponents' winning percentage. Most of their remaining games are against teams further down the standings, and their final three games of the season are against the Sun, Sparks and Wings, all teams currently out of the playoff picture. Phoenix has struggled with injuries this season — their big three of Alyssa Thomas, Satou Saballly and Kahleah Copper has not played together much — so an easier schedule could allow the Mercury to give their starters a break in the run-up to the playoffs.
Seattle Storm
Current record and standing: 16-11, 4th
Most important game: September 5 at home vs. New York
Outlook: The Storm have the fourth-toughest remaining schedule in the league. In addition to their August games against the Dream and Mercury, they will play the Lynx twice, the Liberty once, and end the regular season against the Valkyries, who could be battling to make it into the playoffs in their first season. The Storm will need their stars, Nneka Ogwumike and Skylar Diggins, to lead the way — Diggins put up her first career triple-double in a blowout win over the Sun on Sunday.
Atlanta Dream
Current record and standing: 15-11; 5th
Most important games: August 13 and 15, away and then home against Seattle
Outlook: Atlanta is just a smidge behind Phoenix with the second-easiest remaining strength of schedule, but they do have a rough stretch in mid-August where they face Phoenix, Seattle twice, Golden State, Las Vegas, Minnesota and New York. If they can emerge from this run around the No. 4 spot, they have a good shot to hold on and earn home-court through the first round as they play their final five games against Los Angeles and Connecticut.
While the Mercury, Storm and Dream are fighting for home-court in the first round, they're all but assured a spot in the postseason. The Aces, Mystics and Valkyries are fighting for playoff spots, period — here's how their schedule affects them:
Las Vegas Aces
Current record and standing: 14-13; 7th
Most important game: August 23 at Washington
Outlook: It feels a bit surreal to think that the Aces — the team that won back-to-back titles in 2022 and 2023, the team with four Olympic gold medalists, including three-time MVP A'ja Wilson — might not make the playoffs in 2025. But if they can't navigate the rest of the season with more consistency, it could happen. Their strength of schedule is right in the middle of the road compared to the rest of the league, but the Aces do have some tough games in the schedule's final six weeks, including games against the Liberty and Lynx. The final three games of the season do offer some promise for the Aces, however, as the team will play the Sky twice and the Sparks once.
Washington Mystics
Current record and standing: 13-13; 8th
Most important game: August 30 at Golden State
Outlook: The young Mystics are in a good position to make it to the playoffs in Sydney Johnson's first year as the team's head coach, especially because they have a fairly easy schedule (third-easiest in the league). It's not a cupcake, as the Mystics will have to play the Lynx once and the Liberty twice, all on the road, but they could continue to surprise with their rookie duo, Sonia Citron and Kiki Iriafen, helping lead the charge.
Golden State Valkyries
Current record and standing: 12-13; 9th
Most important game: August 30 vs. the Mystics
Outlook: One of the best WNBA stories this season is the Valkyries, who could make the postseason in their first year in existence, all without a superstar. But it will not be easy for Golden State to break into the league's top eight with the sixth-toughest remaining schedule in the league. It's not just that the Valks will have to face the Mercury and Lynx twice and the Liberty once. It's their sheer number of games in the next six weeks. A particularly unforgiving stretch starts August 9 and ends August 19, with Golden State playing every other day. They then end the season on the road with games at Seattle and Minnesota. But if they make it through that with a postseason berth, they will be well-prepared for the playoffs behind head coach Natalie Nakase, a former assistant with the Aces.