Delhi moves to follow through on IWT threat

Express Tribune

17-05-2025

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India is considering plans to dramatically increase the water it draws from a major river that feeds Pakistani farms downstream, expanding an over 100-year-old canal and building new water storage sites, according to people familiar with the matter.
Delhi suspended its participation in the Indus Waters Treaty of 1960, which governs usage of the Indus river system, shortly after 26 civilians were killed in Indian Illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (IIOJK). Without offering any evidence, India blamed Pakistan for the attack.
Pakistan vehemently denied any involvement in the incident, but the water accord has not been revived despite the two nuclear-armed neighbours agreeing to a ceasefire last week, following the worst fighting between them in decades.
In April, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi told officials to expedite planning and execution of projects on the Chenab, Jhelum and Indus rivers, three bodies of water in the Indus system that are designated primarily for Pakistan's use, six people told Reuters.
One of the key plans under discussion involves doubling to 120km the length of the Ranbir canal on the Chenab, which runs through India to Pakistan's agricultural powerhouse of Punjab, two of the people said. The canal was built in the 19th century, long before the treaty was signed.
India is permitted to draw a limited amount of water from the Chenab for irrigation, but an expanded canal— which experts said could take years to construct – would allow it to divert 150 cubic meters of water per second — up from about 40 cubic meters currently, according to official documents.
Details of the Indian government's deliberations on expanding Ranbir have not previously been reported. The discussions started last month and continue even after the ceasefire, one of the people said.
The Indian ministries responsible for water and foreign affairs, as well as Modi's office, did not respond to Reuters' questions. Indian hydropower giant NHPC, which operates many projects in the Indus system, also did not respond to an email seeking comment.
The water and foreign ministries of Pakistan did not respond to requests for comment but Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar told lawmakers this week that the government had written to India, arguing that suspending the treaty was unlawful and that Islamabad regarded it as remaining in force.
Any efforts by Delhi to build dams, canals or other infrastructure that would withhold or divert significant amount of flow from the Indus system to India "would take years to realise," said water security expert David Michel of the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies.
About 80% of Pakistani farms depend on the Indus system, as do nearly all hydropower projects serving the country of some 250 million. Islamabad said after India suspended the treaty in April that it considered "any attempt to stop or divert the flow of water belonging to Pakistan" to be an "act of war".
The treaty is widely seen as one of the world's most successful water-sharing accords, having survived several major wars and longstanding tensions between India and Pakistan. The treaty restricts India largely to setting up low-impact hydropower projects on the three rivers allocated to Pakistan.
Alongside the plans to expand Ranbir canal, India is also considering projects that would likely reduce the flow of water into Pakistan from rivers allocated to that country, according to two government documents seen by Reuters and interviews with five people familiar with the matter.
One document, an undated note prepared by a government company for officials considering irrigation plans, suggests that water from the Indus, Chenab and Jhelum "potentially be distributed into rivers" in three northern Indian states.
Delhi has also created a list of hydropower projects in its IIOJK that it hopes will expand capacity to 12,000 megawatts, up from the current 3,360 MW. The list, which was created by the power ministry and seen by Reuters, was not dated.
The prospective projects also include dams that can store large volumes of water, in what would be a first for India in the Indus river system, according to two people familiar with the matter. India has identified at least five possible storage projects, four of which are on tributaries of Chenab and Jhelum.
Pakistan has said that it is preparing legal action in several international forums, including the World Bank, which facilitated the treaty, as well as the Permanent Court of Arbitration or the International Court of Justice in The Hague.
Plea to IMF
Separately, in continued hostility towards Pakistan, Indian Defence Minister Rajnath Singh said on Friday that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) should reconsider a $1 billion loan to Pakistan, alleging it was "funding terror", a move denounced by Pakistan as proof of New Delhi's desperation.
"I believe any economic assistance to Pakistan is nothing less than funding terror," Singh told troops at an air force base in western India. India made similar plea to IMF but last week, the IMF approved a loan programme review for Pakistan, unlocking a $1 billion payment.
"India was the lone country which tried to stop it [IMF programme] and it failed. It again reflects Indian frustration. Trying to criticise an institution like IMF speaks about this desperation," Foreign Office spokesman Shafqat Ali Khan told reporters in Islamabad.