Why do members of Putin's inner circle keep dying?
Roman Starovoyt was found dead in his Tesla sedan on the side of a road in an affluent Moscow suburb recently, with investigators saying he died from a gunshot wound to the head.
An ornate ceremonial handgun was found at his side, with the obvious inference being that he took his own life.
But Starovoyt was one of Russia's ruling elite.
He was rich. He was powerful. He had everything to live for.
And self-inflicted death is not the most common cause of death among Russian President Vladimir Putin's inner circle. That's usually unfortunately-open upper-story windows. Tall flights of slippery stairs. Or unexpectedly toxic cups of tea.
The 53-year-old had barely served a year in his powerful federal cabinet role. Hours before his body was found, a single-line Kremlin statement sealed his fate: 'Roman Starovoyt was relieved of the post of Minister of Transport.'
Why is not a matter of public record. Practitioners of Kremlin power politics rarely deign to explain.
But Putin is under pressure. His war has cost Russia one million dead and wounded. He's spending more than eight per cent of the national budget to sustain his invasion.
And Ukraine shows no sign of surrendering after four years of fighting.
'For Putin, ending the war without meeting his core political objectives would be tantamount to a defeat and would leave the patriotic, ultranationalist bloc that he has cultivated and nurtured during the war deeply angered,' argues Kings College London War Studies Emeritus Professor Lawrence Freedman
'The more moderate Russian elite might be relieved by such an outcome, but with so little to show for such a costly effort, there would still be a dangerous reckoning. Many would begin to ask, 'Was it worth it?' and to wonder about the fallibility of Russia's leadership.'
Such questions are already being asked.
Putin faced a coup from his Wagner mercenary group in 2023. And a relentless toll of dead billionaires, entrepreneurs, parliamentarians and military commanders suggests discontent runs deep.
Starovoyt may have been seen as a suitably loyal Putin apparatchik. However, he was unable to keep himself separate from scandal.
Russia's internal air and rail travel systems are in chaos. Transport gridlock is the new norm amid Ukraine's deep-penetrating drone attacks.
And Starovoyt had been Governor of Kursk. Its defences failed spectacularly in August last year, allowing Ukrainian troops to occupy part of the territory for up to six months.
Whatever the cause, sudden death is the ultimate sign of Putin's displeasure.
And Starovoyt won't be the last.
Oligarch's Disease
Russia's State Duma approved a new transport minister the same day Starovoyt's body was discovered in the Moscow suburb of Odintsovo on July 7. The Governor of Novgorod Oblast, Andrei Nikitin, now fills the high-profile position.
But Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov waited until the following day to declare that parliament was 'shocked' at the 'tragic' news of Starovoyt's death.
Odds are Starovoyt was blamed for tarnishing Putin's unassailable image.
It's all part of the job.
'All dictators need loyal elites to survive in office and govern effectively,' explains political scientist Alexander Baturo of Dublin City University.
'In turn, most dictators tend to value loyalty over competence by rewarding more devoted officials… Most dictators pay relatively less regard for whether such officials also deliver adequate policy performance.'
It's all about ego. The leader's ego. Such leaders also dislike bad news.
'Vladimir Putin's decision to invade Ukraine in 2022 may partly have been a result of him being surrounded by 'yes-men', and not receiving adequate information and the potential risks involved in such an operation,' Baturo says.
Such loyalty is rewarded with a wink and a nod as tacit permission to skim as much from the top as one can safely get away with. Just don't expect support if anything goes wrong.
'And if you're no longer sufficiently sycophantic, there's a long list of crimes conveniently awaiting exposure.
'Sycophancy in Putin's Russia, as with other autocracies, may well mean that leaders do not always get the policies and outcomes they want delivered – just the political backers who flatter them the most,' Baturo concludes.
Putin's 'fall guys'
The surrender of Russian sovereign territory in Kursk to Ukrainian troops last year was not part of Putin's script. But, then, neither was his anticipated three-day 'special operation' to seize Ukraine supposed to be still going three years later.
Naturally, someone needed to be blamed.
So his eyes would naturally fall on the Governor who had controlled Kurk's purse strings for more than a decade: Starovoyt.
The Kremlin last year ordered an urgent investigation into the cause of the embarrassing Kursk retreat. And two of Starovoyt's former Kursk deputies were arrested in recent months.
Russian newspaper Kommersant reports that one of them, Aleksei Smirnov, was prepared to provide testimony incriminating Starovoyt of pocketing funds allocated for the construction of defensive emplacements along the border with Ukraine.
But it may have taken more than one embarrassing failure to seal Starovoyt's fate. A dictatorship's trains are always supposed to run on time.
So what if they don't?
Andrei Korneichuk was a longstanding associate of the minister. The 42-year-old Railway transport official reportedly suddenly collapsed and died during a business meeting the same day Starovoyt's body was found.
'It's highly unlikely this was a coincidence,' Prague-based Russian commentator Ivan Preobrazhensky told European media.
'He was sure Starovoyt wouldn't betray him under any circumstances...And then suddenly, it turns out that your 'protection' either shot himself — or was shot. Panic sets in, and that panic ends the way it ended'.
Former Russian defence minister Andrei Kartapolov has further fuelled speculation. As a former member of Putin's inner circle, he'd have a good idea of what happens to those who fall from the Russian dictator's favour.
He has suggested that Starovoyt died hours before the dismissal decree was published.
The transport minister was last seen in an official video Sunday. Putin's office issued its dismissal Monday - the same day the body was found.
Windows are deadly in Moscow
Starovolt and Korneichuk have joined a long list of dead Putin pals.
Pipeline tycoon Andrei Badalov mysteriously fell from a Moscow window on July 4. Outspoken Putin supporter and Olympic champion Buvaisar Saitiev, 49, also fell from a window in March.
It's a relentless, but strangely uniform, toll.
Open windows have claimed many of Russia's rich, famous and influential. Others have tumbled down stairs.
Some experienced strange but suddenly fatal symptoms. Several have allegedly resorted to suicide.
Some two dozen oligarchs died mysteriously in 2023 alone. And the toll was only marginally less last year.
It's not entirely unexpected.
'I want you to show solidarity with the government,' President Putin demanded after ordering Russia's richest and most powerful to assemble in Moscow shortly after he invaded Ukraine in February 2022.
The threat behind the statement was unspoken but obvious: 'Or else…'
Survivors of Putin's displeasure are scarce.
Former Russian Defense Minister (and close Putin camping pal) Sergei Shoigu lost his job late last year. He remains a public figure. But his time may be running out.
Several of his high-profile former associates have now been fired or arrested.
The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace says 2024 saw a 'monthslong purge' of Russia's Defense Ministry, resulting in the 'dismantling of the entire elite group that had developed around Shoigu over the decades'.
'Shoigu himself, although he has so far been kept out of harm's way by personal guarantees from the president, is forced to watch what is happening without any possibility of protecting his inner circle or stopping the new arrests.'
Another candidate for an open window is General Sergey Surovikin.
He saved Putin from humiliation by stabilising Russia's routed forces in 2022.
'Russian wars — no matter how bloody or disastrous — have a habit of producing popular generals,' Centre for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) analysts Irina Borogan and Andrei Soldatov state.
'If there's one thing that frightens Vladimir Putin, it's a popular general. He takes no chances with the military, despite the Kremlin's official proclamations to the contrary.
General Surovikin 'disappeared' after the 2023 Wagner mutiny.
Only in February did Russia's parliament, the Duma, address his fate.
'(He's) somewhere in Africa, but I don't know where exactly, because I never asked. But he is abroad,' parliamentarian Viktor Sobolev explained.
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