America vs China: An avoidable war despite Thucydides' Trap

Independent Singapore

2 days ago

American soft power extends even to Chinese paramount leader Xi Jinping's family. His daughter, Xi Mingze, his only child, did not study at Tsinghua University like him but graduated from Harvard in 2014.
He visited the United States several times, most notably in 1985, when, as a young provincial official, he spent two weeks in Iowa learning about American farming methods and stayed with an American family for three days. Yet, under his leadership, US-China tensions have escalated to the highest level since the early 1950s Korean War, when American soldiers fought the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA).
As during the Korean War, America is urging other countries to contain China. Speaking at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth appealed to Asian nations to increase defence spending. However, it was not a call to arms. As noted by Singapore's Defence Minister Chan Chun Sing, Hegseth specifically said: 'We do not seek war … we do not seek to dominate or strangle China, to encircle or provoke. We do not seek regime change, nor will we instigate or disrespect a proud and historic culture.'
Indeed, what the Americans are trying to do is contain China without confronting it militarily. From strict export controls on advanced technology to attempts to diversify supply chains, Washington is trying to curb Beijing's economic power and reduce dependence on China. Beijing may see it as an act of hostility. But its own actions – from expanding its naval presence to wooing other nations with investments under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) — are challenging the status quo, undermining Pax Americana. See also China's Path Not Taken In Kevin Rudd's view
Former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd worries the tensions between the two countries may spill into bloody hostilities in what he calls an 'avoidable war'. That is the title of his book: The Avoidable War. The 2020s are 'the decade of living dangerously', he writes, the fallout unimaginable if the two countries go to war. According to him, 'armed conflict between China and the United States, while not yet probable, has become a real possibility'. He urges the two countries to take steps to avert war, like America and the former Soviet Union did after the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962.
Indeed, as the Cold War demonstrated, superpower rivalry does not inevitably end in war. America and the former Soviet Union waged proxy wars, backing warring nations and rival leaders, but refrained from all-out war. There were military confrontations in Cuba and Berlin, but not gory battles. See also Australia says Xi's caring rhetoric does not match actions
Will America and China follow the same course – geopolitical rivals but not warring enemies? Thucydides' Trap
The danger that could trip them into full-scale war is called Thucydides' Trap. Named after the ancient Greek historian and Athenian general Thucydides, Thucydides' Trap is a concept popularised by the American political scientist Graham Allison.
Discussed by Rudd and the animating idea behind an entire book by Allison, Thucydides' Trap is the hostilities unleashed when a rising power tries to displace a ruling power.
Thucydides mentioned the phenomenon In his History of the Peloponnesian War. 'It was the rise of Athens and the fear that this instilled in Sparta that made war inevitable,' he wrote.
The fifth-century BC Peloponnesian War was fought between Athens and Sparta and their allies, which included virtually every Greek city-state. It was the result of the then-dominant Sparta's fear of the growing might of Athens. Sparta eventually vanquished Athens after two decades of warfare.
Thucydides' Trap is central to Allison's book, Destined for War, about America and China.
The Harvard political scientist compares China's growing power to that of Athens before the Peloponnesian War. As Athens grew in importance, Sparta reacted with 'fear, insecurity, and a determination to defend the status quo'. The ensuing Peloponnesian War 'brought ancient Greece to its knees'.
War is not inevitable between America and China, says Allison, but only if their leaders alter course.
According to Allison, 'If Hollywood were making a movie pitting China against America on the path to war, central casting could not find two better leading actors than Xi Jinping and Donald Trump. Each personifies his country's deep aspirations of national greatness.'
But a collision could be averted. 'If Xi and Trump listened to Lee Kuan Yew, they would focus first on what matters most: their domestic problems,' says Allison. Yes, Singapore's founding father, according to the Harvard scholar, could still mentor global leaders from beyond the grave.
Featured image is from the Destined For War book cover