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Independent Singapore
3 days ago
- Business
- Independent Singapore
America vs China: An avoidable war despite Thucydides' Trap
American soft power extends even to Chinese paramount leader Xi Jinping's family. His daughter, Xi Mingze, his only child, did not study at Tsinghua University like him but graduated from Harvard in 2014. He visited the United States several times, most notably in 1985, when, as a young provincial official, he spent two weeks in Iowa learning about American farming methods and stayed with an American family for three days. Yet, under his leadership, US-China tensions have escalated to the highest level since the early 1950s Korean War, when American soldiers fought the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA). As during the Korean War, America is urging other countries to contain China. Speaking at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth appealed to Asian nations to increase defence spending. However, it was not a call to arms. As noted by Singapore's Defence Minister Chan Chun Sing, Hegseth specifically said: 'We do not seek war … we do not seek to dominate or strangle China, to encircle or provoke. We do not seek regime change, nor will we instigate or disrespect a proud and historic culture.' Indeed, what the Americans are trying to do is contain China without confronting it militarily. From strict export controls on advanced technology to attempts to diversify supply chains, Washington is trying to curb Beijing's economic power and reduce dependence on China. Beijing may see it as an act of hostility. But its own actions – from expanding its naval presence to wooing other nations with investments under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) — are challenging the status quo, undermining Pax Americana. See also China's Path Not Taken In Kevin Rudd's view Former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd worries the tensions between the two countries may spill into bloody hostilities in what he calls an 'avoidable war'. That is the title of his book: The Avoidable War. The 2020s are 'the decade of living dangerously', he writes, the fallout unimaginable if the two countries go to war. According to him, 'armed conflict between China and the United States, while not yet probable, has become a real possibility'. He urges the two countries to take steps to avert war, like America and the former Soviet Union did after the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962. Indeed, as the Cold War demonstrated, superpower rivalry does not inevitably end in war. America and the former Soviet Union waged proxy wars, backing warring nations and rival leaders, but refrained from all-out war. There were military confrontations in Cuba and Berlin, but not gory battles. See also Australia says Xi's caring rhetoric does not match actions Will America and China follow the same course – geopolitical rivals but not warring enemies? Thucydides' Trap The danger that could trip them into full-scale war is called Thucydides' Trap. Named after the ancient Greek historian and Athenian general Thucydides, Thucydides' Trap is a concept popularised by the American political scientist Graham Allison. Discussed by Rudd and the animating idea behind an entire book by Allison, Thucydides' Trap is the hostilities unleashed when a rising power tries to displace a ruling power. Thucydides mentioned the phenomenon In his History of the Peloponnesian War. 'It was the rise of Athens and the fear that this instilled in Sparta that made war inevitable,' he wrote. The fifth-century BC Peloponnesian War was fought between Athens and Sparta and their allies, which included virtually every Greek city-state. It was the result of the then-dominant Sparta's fear of the growing might of Athens. Sparta eventually vanquished Athens after two decades of warfare. Thucydides' Trap is central to Allison's book, Destined for War, about America and China. The Harvard political scientist compares China's growing power to that of Athens before the Peloponnesian War. As Athens grew in importance, Sparta reacted with 'fear, insecurity, and a determination to defend the status quo'. The ensuing Peloponnesian War 'brought ancient Greece to its knees'. War is not inevitable between America and China, says Allison, but only if their leaders alter course. According to Allison, 'If Hollywood were making a movie pitting China against America on the path to war, central casting could not find two better leading actors than Xi Jinping and Donald Trump. Each personifies his country's deep aspirations of national greatness.' But a collision could be averted. 'If Xi and Trump listened to Lee Kuan Yew, they would focus first on what matters most: their domestic problems,' says Allison. Yes, Singapore's founding father, according to the Harvard scholar, could still mentor global leaders from beyond the grave. Featured image is from the Destined For War book cover
Yahoo
25-05-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
Cortaro Fire extinguished after 100 acres burned in the Tucson metro area
The Cortaro Fire reached 100% containment after burning through vegetation in the Santa Cruz riverbed in Marana near Tucson, according to the Arizona Department of Forestry and Fire Management. After pillars of dark smoke were sent into the sky midafternoon the day before, state firefighters fought alongside the Northwest Fire District to extinguish the fire by May 25. Tiffany Davila, spokesperson for the forestry department, said the fire had burned through about 111 acres in the Santa Cruz riverbed, near Silverbell and Cortaro roads. Crews remained on scene and continued to patrol the fire area, monitoring for any activity. The state returned command of the fire to the Northwest Fire District in Marana. Davila said the cause of the fire remained under investigation but believed it may have been human caused. In addition to the state forestry department, local firefighters received support from the Tucson Fire Department and the Golder Ranch Fire District, according to Anne-Marie Braswell, spokesperson for NWFD. Here's what we know about the fire in the Marana metro area and what closures were lifted. Davila said the fire was fueled by a mixture of salt cedar, cattail reeds and mesquite trees dried by recent hot temperatures. The fire started between Cortaro Farms and Ina roads, according to Davila. Just after 3:45 p.m., the NWFD reported the fire "declared under control" and that no structures were threatened. The Arizona Department of Transportation said both directions of the I-10 in Marana were open near the burn area, about 15 minutes north of downtown Tucson. Smoke could be seen from ADOT traffic cameras as the fire saw its most activity midafternoon May 24. ADOT reminded drivers to help prevent wildfires by keeping lit cigarettes in a vehicle, securing tow chains to prevent them from dragging and not parking near dry vegetation. Real-time traffic conditions could be found on Law enforcement had reopened nearby Cortaro Road and Crossroads Park after the fire caused a temporary closure. The library, which is closed every Saturday, closed early May 24 when the fire had spread to nearby portions of the Santa Cruz River, according to the town of Marana. Reach reporter Rey Covarrubias Jr. at rcovarrubias@ Follow him on X, Threads and Bluesky @ReyCJrAZ. This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: What to know about the Cortaro Fire near Tucson
