Madeline Stewart: Porsche Carrera Cup ambitions with top-10 finish in sight
Now in her third season racing Porsches in America, Stewart initially found success contesting the Porsche Sprint Challenge North America, where she finished
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NZ Herald
2 hours ago
- NZ Herald
NZ debt nears $1 trillion as growth moderates, savings fall
At the current rate of growth, we'll hit that landmark inside the next three years. The rate of growth has moderated in the past two years as the Government has sought to curb borrowing, and the housing market, which accounts for the largest chunk of our debt, has been flat. Businesses have also been hunkering down, afraid to invest and expand, and farmers are getting good returns but using them to address high debt levels. But while the rate at which we're borrowing has eased, so too has the rate at which we are saving and growing wealth. The easiest path out of debt is wealth creation, shrinking our net debt and our debt-to-GDP ratio. So going backwards on that front is a cause for concern. The big, ugly numbers In the year to May 31, we hit a total of $872.6 billion in gross debt. That figure is up from $827.3b last year, a rise of 5.4%. It represents an average of $163,717 in raw debt for every Kiwi in the country. The rate of growth is relatively subdued by the standards of previous years. In the first New Zealand Herald Nation of Debt feature, in 2016, the total gross debt figure was $492.5b. We have seen total debt rise 77% since then. That represents an average annual increase of 6.65%. Given we are still coming down from a period of high interest rates, it was not surprising that borrowing growth was subdued, said Reserve Bank adviser for financial stability assessment and strategy, Charles Lilly. 'We're still in a relatively contractionary phase,' he said. 'We want to see stability. We don't want credit debt off the scale and people taking too much risk.' On the downside, a lack of borrowing growth was more of an issue with the financial system if the banks were not willing to lend, he said. 'I think banks are still willing to lend; it's mainly from the demand side, they just don't have customers coming through the door.' Crown debt also continues to rise, despite the Government's efforts to curb spending. Core Crown borrowing (the baseline we've used since 2016) was $238.8b in the year to May 31, 2025. That's up from $215b in the year to May 30, 2024 – an increase of 11%. It follows an increase of 11% for the previous year. While the coalition Government hasn't been able to stop Crown debt rising in double digits, it has at least reduced the annual rate of increase. It was 27% and 17% respectively in the years to May 2022 and May 2023. Crown debt is always a hot political topic. Wellington business editor Jenée Tibshraeny will take a deep dive into the state of the Government books tomorrow in part two of this series. The other side of the ledger Of course, the nominal figures still look scary. So does your mortgage if you don't weigh it against the value of your house. It is important to compare the gross debt figure to our saving rates and assets to add more context. Unfortunately, the latest Stats NZ figures (for the year to March) showed New Zealanders' household net wealth has fallen. Household net worth, the value of all assets owned by households less the value of their liabilities, fell $25.4b to $2.42 trillion in the March 2025 quarter. That is still almost three times the total gross debt figure. But in the year ended March 2025, household net worth fell $23.1b (0.9%), after a rise of $61.2b (2.5%) in the year ended March 2024. We're currently headed in the wrong direction. Most of that fall will be related to house prices, although some of it can be attributed to lower savings rates. Stats NZ's household saving data shows how much households are saving out of their current income (ie current income less current consumption). The data shows savings fell $392 million to minus $1.6b in the March 2025 quarter. Sector by sector Housing It should come as no surprise that the nation's mortgage debt accounts for the bulk of what we owe. Housing debt shot up during the big housing booms in the middle of the last decade and again during the first blush of Covid as stimulus money and low interest rates bolstered property prices. In the year to May 2016, the annual rate of increase for total housing debt was 9.2%, in 2021 it was 11.5%. If we look back further, it topped 16% in 2004. So this year's increase of 4.7% looks modest in comparison. It represents a slight increase on the even more modest 3.3% rise in the year to May 2024. That lift in mortgage debt may reflect the slight uptick in prices late last year and early this year (albeit something of a false start for those waiting on a full-blown housing market recovery). But the level of borrowing has also been lifted by record numbers of first-home buyers coming into the market, and fewer investors, said the RBNZ's Lilly. The former typically need to borrow more from the bank than the latter. If the housing market picks up later this year, as many pundits expect, then we'll likely see the rate of increase in mortgage borrowing follow, he says. Mortgage debt, most of which we owe to Australian banks, is a feature of the New Zealand economy that tends to worry international credit agencies more than our Crown debt. It has been a concern for the Reserve Bank in the past. 'In the current environment, subdued is definitely the theme,' Lilly said. Business Business borrowing barely lifted in the past year – and that is not good news for the economy. At $136.5b in the year to May 31, it was up just 0.6%. Businesses typically borrow to invest in new equipment that will improve productivity or to expand, taking on staff, to grab more market share. None of that stuff has been a feature of the past year. In fact, the opposite has been the case. Many businesses are struggling to survive. Those that desperately need cash to stay in business aren't going to get it from a bank. The struggle for many retail businesses is also highlighted in the relatively anaemic growth in personal consumer lending. At $14.5b, it is up 1.1% in the year to May 31. NZ Herald retail reporter Tom Raynel will take a closer look at the consumer borrowing trends later this week as part of the Nation of Debt series. For larger businesses, issues such as global uncertainty and tariffs would be limiting the appetite to borrow and take risks, Lilly said. It was also the case that the commercial property sector remained very weak, he said. Agriculture Unlike the struggling urban business sector, farmers have been benefiting from strong international export prices in the past year. Numerous commentators have suggested increased spending in the agricultural sector should buoy the regional economies and eventually flow through to the cities. The borrowing data for the past year offers some clues as to why that may take longer than many expect. Total agricultural debt is down 1% for the year to May 31, to $62.8b. Farmers appeared to be using their increased earnings to pay down debt in the first instance, Lilly said. This wasn't a bad thing; it is only a few years ago that the Reserve Bank was highlighting dairy debt as a significant risk to New Zealand's financial stability, he said. By the numbers That big, ugly number in our graphic is New Zealand's total gross debt. It combines the latest Reserve Bank figures for private debt with Treasury numbers for Crown debt and Local Government Funding Agency data on council debt, and IRD's data on student loans. The Reserve Bank figures include housing debt, consumer debt, business debt and agricultural debt to June 30. These are updated monthly by the central bank as part of its brief to monitor and maintain financial stability. The Crown debt figure is taken from the Treasury's Interim Financial Statements (11 months to May 31) and is the figure for core Crown borrowings. This is different from the net core Crown debt figure often used by politicians when discussing debt-to-GDP ratios. We use this (on Treasury's advice) as it is a gross debt figure but excludes debt held by state-owned enterprises, which would have been covered in the Reserve Bank statistics. The debt figure supplied by the Local Government Funding Agency is gross debt for the year to June 30, 2024. It captures all core council activities (Watercare, Auckland Transport, etc) but excludes some commercial activities (eg Christchurch City Council's Orion lines company, Port of Lyttelton, Christchurch Airport) as these would also be included in RBNZ data. Student loan debt is from the IRD statistics to March 2025. COMING UP IN THIS SERIES Tomorrow: Gov't debt: Are higher taxes inevitable? Wednesday: Consumer debt: What are Kiwis borrowing for? Thursday: Student debt: How big? How bad? Liam Dann is Business Editor at Large for the New Zealand Herald. He is a senior writer and columnist, as well as presenting and producing videos and podcasts. He joined the Herald in 2003.
The Spinoff
2 hours ago
- The Spinoff
What are you on about? We don't have an oversupply of housing
We don't have too many houses, and even if we did, having 'too many houses' is like having 'too many bowls of Kiwi onion dip'. It's not a real problem. Christine Fletcher and Troy Churton's recent treatise on why we shouldn't let people build so much housing in Auckland is mostly standard fare. The Albert-Eden-Puketāpapa councillor and her partner in urban crime from the Orākei Local Board worry for the city's special character areas. They argue our existing plans are sufficient. But then, a surprise. The pair deliver a warning that would have been unheard of just a few years ago, when renters were clambering over each other to lease mould-ridden houses in the back blocks of Blockhouse Bay. If the government insists on making them legalise apartments near train stations, they intone, the city could end up with an oversupply of housing. Fletcher and Churton aren't the only ones cautioning about the risk of us overindulging and becoming engorged on homes. Property coach Steve Goodey has complained repeatedly to RNZ about what he sees as a growing glut of townhouses in Auckland. The situation is so severe that in some cases it's resulting in house vendors reducing their asking prices, or even more sickeningly, landlords offering discounts to tempt tenants into their investment properties. Bank economists have also tentatively raised the spectre of us having ' too much of a good thing '. Real estate firms go even further, bullying our weighty and 'bloated' property market. These concerns are notable for being what scientists would term 'total bullshit'. Auckland's median house price is still just shy of $1 million. That's 7.7 times the city's median household income, and though that ratio has come down in recent years thanks to a classic one-two combo of a construction boom and crippling recession, it still comfortably rates as severely unaffordable on the scale set up by the Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey. The rest of the country isn't faring much better, with a median multiple of 6.3. In Queenstown, that rises to 12.5, a number so high that just thinking about buying a house there will bankrupt you. These are not the hallmarks of a market awash in surplus housing. Landlords might point instead to our 'soaring' rental vacancy rates. But even those still top out at a tick over 5% in Wellington, 4% in Auckland, and about 3% in the rest of the country. We've got a long way to go before we get to the 10% vacancy rate studies set as a benchmark for rental price stability. New Zealand has had a malfunctioning property market for so long that the first glimmer of normality is being treated like a catastrophe. Could it be that the problem isn't so much housing oversupply, but instead that our property-owning class is experiencing unfamiliar pangs of withdrawal after having the needle of untaxed capital gains partially removed from its arm? Is it possible that investors are screaming, not because the market has gone bung, but because tenants no longer have to sacrifice their firstborn to get a barely maintained bungalow? Even if they're right though, and we're in the midst of a massive housing glut, what's the problem again? Having too many houses is like having too many bowls of Kiwi onion dip. All it means is that you have a lot of delicious options to choose from at the post-funeral snack table. The urban economist Stu Donovan uses another, more disgusting, food as an illustration. He compares housing stocks to the baked bean section at the supermarket. 'You go into the supermarket and the shelves are stocked. Those tins of baked beans on the shelves are effectively like vacant housing in the housing market,' he says. 'When there are vacancies, you can walk into the supermarket and there's a bunch of beans on the shelves and you just grab one if you need it.' For the last few decades, the shelves have been all but bare in New Zealand's housing market. Now there are some options available. There could be a few downsides to that so-called oversupply. Slowing demand may cause a downturn in the construction sector until the market picks up, especially if the government is doing something weird like cancelling dozens of public infrastructure and housing projects during a recession. Some landlords and property speculators might lose money for pretty much the first time in our nation's history. But for the rest of us, it means no longer exchanging a kidney for the first rental that comes along, or competing against hordes of moneyed investors at almost every auction. It means finally walking into that supermarket, finding a range of affordable beans on offer, and maybe, just maybe, even getting a decent bargain. That sounds like a good problem to have. You might even say it's not actually a problem at all.
Otago Daily Times
2 hours ago
- Otago Daily Times
Satin Doll best chance for new Stewart partnership
The 2025-26 racing season marked the beginning of a new era for nonagenarian trainer Leonard Stewart as granddaughter Lacy Stewart joined him in partnership. Based at Phar Lap Raceway, Stewart has had the assistance of Lacy for several years, and it was only a matter of time before her name was in the racebook alongside his. "She's been helping me for the last few years, so it was well overdue to happen,' Stewart said. "We get on pretty well, we see eye to eye and there's never been any arguments. It's quite special training with family. She loves the horses and does a good job with them" Throughout their lives, horses have kept the pair closely connected, and Stewart recalled thoroughbreds always being the preferred choice for his granddaughter. "It all started when she was about 4 or 5, and she was wandering around while I was drying a horse off,' Stewart said. "I said to her, 'Lacy, I must get you a pony', and if there was a prize for the biggest pout, she would've won it by a length. The foot stamped and she said 'I don't want pony, I want racehorse'. "Later on when she went to university, she took one that wasn't fast enough to be a racehorse up to ride around the roads around Christchurch, so she's always been involved in the horses. "She's got a good eye for a horse as well" The Stewarts presented just a handful of runners during Grand National week last week, but they will have a strong representation at Oamaru tomorrow, 10 horses accepting into the meeting. Leading their charge is last-start-winning mare Satin Doll, who will aim to repeat her most recent effort at the track when contesting the rating 65 Oamaru Scaffolding (1200m). "She's come through that race well. She's a nuggety little horse that does what she has to. She eats, sleeps and works,' Stewart said. "Gosen [Jogoo, jockey] rode her very well to win, but it was also a very good effort from the horse. We have worked her along quietly and she's fairly well" Tranquil Eyes filled the quinella behind Satin Doll in that race and comes into the Bernard Francis Potts and Associates Maiden (1200m) in search of an elusive first success. Their stablemate, Queen Of Kings, enters the One Smart Coffee Maiden (1600m) with a similar profile, and Stewart is looking forward to seeing their progression in the new term. "Like Queen Of Kings, she [Tranquil Eyes] will be much stronger and more mature this spring,' he said. "At the moment, she's just doing it on ability and goes out and does her best. "They're going well, but you never know what you're going to strike in a maiden field" Peachy Keen will resume off a decent spell in the rating 75 Kelvin Tyler Racing (1400m) with the benefit of the minimum of 54kg under Jogoo. "He's coming up very well. He's been working well and he won't mind the track on Friday,' Stewart said. "In saying that, since they put the drain in at Oamaru, it's made a big difference to that track. "I think it'll be a nice surface with that drainage. Oamaru are a very progressive club and do a great job" In the same event, newcomer Flying Dubawi will take his place aiming to overcome recent barrier woes that have hindered his chances. The 6-year-old won two races in a 30-start career in Australia and has been with the Stewarts for just under two months. "He has had a few shifts around, but he's won a couple in Australia, so he'd have to have a bit of ability,' Stewart said. "He's a big strong horse — he's just got little issues that we're trying to iron out. ''We put him through the gates and gave him a bit of interval training, and he reacted well, but at Riccarton last Saturday, he was moving back and lost a couple of lengths at the start. "Through no fault of the rider, he covered quite a bit of ground, so I think there is potential there" — News Desk By Jess de Lautour
