Ukraine's Alaska agenda: Kiev wants a lasting ceasefire, NATO-backed security, reparations, and sustained sanctions on Russia

Economic Times

a day ago

Synopsis
As Trump and Putin prepare to meet in Alaska, Ukraine seeks assurances that its interests won't be sacrificed. Kyiv insists on a durable ceasefire, Russian reparations for war damages estimated up to $1 trillion, and binding security guarantees via NATO and the EU. Ukraine also demands the return of abducted children and prisoners of war, alongside maintaining sanctions on Russia.
AP Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy attends a joint press statement with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz following talks with European and US leaders in Berlin, Germany, Wednesday, Aug. 13, 2025. (AP Photo/Ebrahim Noroozi) As US President Donald Trump prepares to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska on Friday, August 15, Ukraine hopes for an agreement that will meet its demands of stopping the war and preventing future aggression. But since Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will not attend this meeting, Kyiv fears being left out of negotiations that could decide its fate.Ukraine and its European allies also fear that Friday's Alaska summit between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin could yield a settlement that sacrifices Kyiv's interests for the appearance of peace. President Zelensky will hold a pre-summit call with Trump alongside European leaders on Wednesday, August 13, to lay out non-negotiable red lines, including a durable ceasefire, full participation in talks, and compensation for war damage estimated at up to $1 trillion.Zelensky has warned that any decisions made without Ukraine 'are at the same time decisions against peace,' as quoted by Politico. Ukrainian officials say Putin's ultimate goal is not just holding territory but ending Ukraine's independence. These are Kyiv's longstanding demands, which they are eagerly hoping to meet.
Kyiv insists on a durable ceasefire before discussing any territorial issues, rejecting US suggestions of 'land swaps' involving the Donbas.Zelenskyy says ceding the region would invite future offensives and undermine Ukraine's sovereignty.NATO's Mark Rutte has floated a possible compromise in which some areas remain under Russian control but are legally recognized as Ukrainian.'When it comes to this whole issue of territory, when it comes to acknowledging, for example, maybe in a future deal that Russia is controlling de facto, factually some of the territory of Ukraine, it has to be effectual recognition, and not a political de jure recognition,' he told ABC.Ukraine insists that Moscow must bear the financial burden for the destruction it has inflicted (by starting a war), a toll estimated between $500 billion and $1 trillion in damages to infrastructure, homes, and livelihoods.German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, speaking at the Ukraine Recovery Conference last month, underlined this demand:'Russia must pay for the approximately €500 billion in damages caused. Until this happens, Moscow must not be granted access to its frozen assets.'Ukraine points to the fact that close European allies hold significant Russian state assets, with almost €200 billion frozen in Belgium alone, as a major source of leverage. Kyiv believes these funds must remain inaccessible to Moscow until full reparations are made.President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has made clear that only full membership in NATO and the European Union can guarantee Ukraine's long-term security:A Politico article quotes Zewleanskey, 'Will we be in NATO? In the EU? I haven't heard anything — simply not a single proposal that would guarantee that a new war won't start tomorrow. We need security guarantees that will preserve, first of all, our state, a sovereign state, our independence.'However, Ukraine faces pushback: US President Donald Trump has ruled out NATO membership, a stance quietly backed by some European capitals, and Moscow demands a permanent NATO veto for Ukraine. Zelenskyy also criticizes EU member states that are hesitant to admit a large, poor country with a vast agricultural sector.For now, European partners, not the US, are Ukraine's primary source of military assistance. Since the war began, Europe has provided at least €73.9 billion in military aid, compared to €64 billion from the US, according to the Kiel Institute.Ukraine demands the immediate return of nearly 20,000 children, who it says were abducted by Russia. Only 1,453 have been returned so far, often through mediation by Qatar and other states.Moscow claims these transfers are evacuations to safety, but refuses to return the children to their families, instead placing them in adoption systems and subjecting them to Russian propaganda. In 2023, the ICC issued an arrest warrant for President Vladimir Putin over the unlawful deportation of children from occupied Ukraine to Russia.On prisoners of war, there has been more progress: more than 2,000 POWs have been exchanged under Trump's mediation, but thousands remain in Russian custody without access for international human rights monitors.Kyiv, backed by European allies, demands that existing primary and secondary sanctions remain in place and even be strengthened. They argue that easing sanctions or resuming trade with Russia would allow Moscow to rebuild its war machine.Economist Timothy Ash estimates the war has already cost Russia about $2 trillion, nearly equivalent to its annual GDP.The risks for Ukraine are clear. As he told Politico, 'Ukraine could survive the war, but not survive the peace,' if a bad deal undermines its security and sovereignty.