U.S. braces for uncertainty ahead of peak hurricane season amid NOAA upheaval

CBC

2 days ago

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One year after being hit by two powerful hurricanes just two weeks apart, Florida is bracing for its first peak hurricane season after sweeping federal cuts to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and its National Weather Service (NWS).
A branch of NOAA, the weather service is heavily relied upon across the U.S. for fast, accurate forecasts, including where and when a hurricane might hit. The NWS serves to inform local governments and emergency management, as well as members of the media and the public at-large.
More than 2,000 jobs eliminated at the research and forecasting agency this year have been attributed to the Trump administration. There are currently more than 3,000 vacancies across NOAA, and that has some scientists and meteorologists worried as peak hurricane season begins.
"My greatest concern is the lack of people that will be available to actually do the work that needs to be done, whether it's collecting observations or making a forecast," said John Cortinas, a former assistant administrator for science at NOAA.
The Trump administration is now pledging to rehire 450 staff at the NWS after eliminating more than 500 jobs there earlier this year. But new employees are unlikely to be in place to help as this hurricane season peaks next month.
"It takes time to train people. It takes time to acclimate them to the kinds of things that the weather service does, and the weather in the various areas in the region that they'll be responsible for," Cortinas said.
Gaps in data
NOAA is recognized as a world leader in hurricane research and forecasting, but the staff that remains is spread thin, and critical data collection is compromised, according to many former NOAA employees who spoke with CBC News.
Several of the 122 NWS offices have scaled down to non-24 hour operations, and others are without a meteorologist-in-charge.
"If it's a sunny day or there's no weather happening, the impacts of that are going to be minimal," he said. "But sometimes you're not always prepared for when something may pop up or something may happen. And so the 24-hour operation is important to maintain."
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The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is preparing for an above-average hurricane season, with almost 2,000 fewer staff than last year. For The National, CBC's Katie Nicholson goes to Florida, where forecasters say that cuts by the Trump administration are a threat to safety.
Many meteorologists and decision-makers rely on the information NOAA and its weather service provide, like Emmy-winning veteran broadcast meteorologist John Morales.
"We're going to have worse modelling. And this is already being observed," Morales said.
Weather balloons, usually released twice a day to gather data, are sometimes only being sent into the atmosphere once a day or sometimes not at all, he said.
Morales says he is also worried about how many times hurricane hunter aircraft will fly missions into storms this year. He relies on their data to make timely forecasts.
Last October, as Hurricane Milton rapidly intensified off the Florida coast, Morales was visibly shaken on air as he interpreted data coming to him live from a hurricane hunter plane in the storm.
"In those few seconds before getting punched up on air, I am looking at the barometric pressure as being measured by a hurricane hunter aircraft ... transmitting it to the National Weather Service, which in turn transmitted to us one of their partners in media," he said.
"It's very likely that without that hurricane hunter mission, we would have not seen how rapidly the hurricane was intensifying. So that's how crucial this information is."
NOAA's crucial forecasting and research is used by many countries, including Canada.
Environment and Climate Change Canada told CBC News it has contingency plans in place in case there are any interruptions to the data shared by the American agency. That includes relationships with several other meteorological organizations around the world.
"This collaboration will continue and can be enhanced if needed," ECCC wrote in an email.
Tied at the hip
Heading into peak hurricane season, NOAA has maintained predictions that this will be an above-average season, driven by unnaturally warm temperatures in the air and oceans, directly attributable to heat-trapping fossil fuel emissions.
"It's really a combustible mix to live in an era in which there is a higher chance that any tropical storm can become a Category 4 or 5 hurricane." says Morales. "We're getting more of the stronger hurricanes happening. Well, that's one element. Now we're going to mix it with degraded ability to study, monitor, forecast and warn … I'm very concerned."
Tampa Mayor Jane Castor has relied on NOAA's data to keep her city safe. She says she is holding her breath heading into hurricane season.
"Unfortunately, we're not going to find out the impact of those cuts until that storm comes. And so that is something that I'm very concerned about," she said.
The sudden loss of institutional knowledge at NOAA is compounded by the mass exodus of senior leadership at the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), the organization that responds to the storms with aid, before, during and for months after.
North Carolina's governor Josh Stein has pleaded that his government has lost billions, and new red tape requires any claims to FEMA over $100,000 go to the secretary of Homeland Security for sign off. That new rule was blamed by some for a slow response to the Texas flash floods in July.
"I stay out of politics. My job is to protect the community," said Pete Gomez, the director of Miami-Dade County's emergency management department. NOAA is a critical resource.
"We're tied at the hip with NOAA and the National Weather Service," he said. "We base a lot of our decisions on the advice that they're giving us. So we need to have the most accurate, up-to-date information possible," he said.
"If we're not getting timely, accurate information, then we can't make timely, accurate decisions."
Future losses
The Trump administration is also proposing an additional 27 per cent cut to NOAA in its 2026 budget, which would eliminate all research laboratories including the National Hurricane Center in Miami. So far, the plan has received a lot of pushback from Congress.
"Eliminating those laboratories would have real significant impacts not only on the things that are happening today, but on our ability to improve the way that we understand the environment," said Cortinas, referring to NOAA's world renowned leadership on hurricane research.
And as storms increase in frequency and intensity with climate change, there's an increased need to be able to pinpoint exactly where, when and how hard a storm will hit.
"The last thing you want is to have a high false alarm ratio, right?," said Morales. "You don't want to be over warning people for events that might affect the next town over, but not your town."
"To be able to do the research, to be able to narrow those warnings to specific communities as opposed to an entire state, that's what leads to better action when people are called to take action."