What can the Vikings get in trade for No. 24 pick in NFL draft? Here's what history shows

New York Times

08-04-2025

Twenty minutes into his early morning media session last week at the NFL league meeting in Palm Beach, Fla., Kevin O'Connell smirked.
The Minnesota Vikings head coach had been talking about his team's plan at left guard. He left the door open for a potential newcomer via the NFL Draft, but that wasn't what spurred the wry smile. Instead, it surfaced during an acknowledgement of what Minnesota is working with in late April: four draft picks, only one of which is in the first two rounds.
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No team possesses less pick value for 2025 than the Vikings, according to Over the Cap's Fitzgerald-Spielberger draft chart.
How Minnesota got to this point is one conversation, but how the front office will navigate these circumstances is the more relevant one. Trading back in the first round is the most obvious path forward, but that doesn't mean it's a foolproof strategy.
Think back to 2022, if you can stomach it. General manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah exchanged two top-50 picks for three top-70 picks. It doesn't help that Lewis Cine, Andrew Booth Jr. and Ed Ingram are no longer on the roster, but even Adofo-Mensah has said, in hindsight, he would have sought more value.
This history is informative for the present. Because the Vikings are emerging from a bountiful free-agency period, they don't have many obvious needs. That should allow for more discipline and flexibility. In Palm Beach, O'Connell was not shy about his belief that the Vikings must generate value from the 2025 draft class, regardless of the pick allotment. That said, given all the factors — which include the widely held belief that this draft class has only a handful of elite prospects — it feels appropriate to explore what the Vikings could net with a trade back from No. 24.
"A lot of boxes got checked in a really positive way."
Head Coach Kevin O'Connell chatted with @TomPelissero this morning at the NFL Annual Meeting about what the #Vikings accomplished in free agency.
📺: https://t.co/LTkytMyAzR pic.twitter.com/z86ePVyUMd
— Minnesota Vikings (@Vikings) March 31, 2025
The Dallas Cowboys traded the No. 24 pick in last year's draft. The Detroit Lions wanted to move up for cornerback Terrion Arnold, so the teams struck a deal. Dropping five spots to No. 29 meant picking up an extra third-rounder. This was an obvious win for Dallas via multiple trade charts, with many surmising that the Cowboys had created an additional mid-round pick in value.
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This is typically the case with first-round trades in the 20s. Eleven teams have made similar moves down in the last five years. Most involve a surplus of a third- or fourth-round pick.
Adofo-Mensah has discussed studying draft data and how the probabilities of hitting on players change depending on where you're taking them.
'Every time you go back,' Adofo-Mensah said at the 2023 combine, 'you lose the odds of drafting (a certain caliber of elite player). Now, what do you gain? You gain volume by drafting good players who potentially have a lower chance of being great. It's just the trade-off.'
Minnesota's approach in 2022 signaled that the team was OK with that trade-off. But in 2024, the Vikings reversed course by trading up for edge rusher Dallas Turner. The team that agreed to the deal? The Jacksonville Jaguars, another franchise that has frequently been willing to move down.
The Jaguars traded back twice in 2022. Moving from No. 24 to No. 27 returned an extra fourth-rounder, fifth-rounder and seventh-rounder. The Baltimore Ravens fell a couple of spots in 2022 and landed a fourth-rounder. You might remember former Vikings general manager Rick Spielman trading the No. 25 pick in 2020 to the San Francisco 49ers for No. 31, a fourth-rounder and a sixth-rounder.
What types of packages can a team find if it is willing to exchange a late first-round pick for an early second-rounder? The Tennessee Titans and Jacksonville went this route in 2022, but neither scooped a notable package. One of the most interesting trades down in recent memory happened in 2020 when the New England Patriots parted with No. 23 for the Los Angeles Chargers' Nos. 37 and 71. Those picks became safety Kyle Dugger and defensive tackle Nnamdi Madubuike.
This gets at maybe the most relevant facet of any potential move. That year, the only safety picked between No. 23 and No. 37 was Xavier McKinney. The Patriots, aware enough of what positions most teams preferred, knew they could end up with a player they liked at that next spot.
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That's the Vikings' challenge: scavenging for information about what the teams picking behind them need and identifying areas of the draft where they can find likable players at positions they covet.
'Every draft, you kind of look at the top, the middle and the bottom and see where you want to be on the board,' Adofo-Mensah said several years ago. 'There is no exact science.'
The Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs are the first teams worth mentioning. They made a deal with each other in the first round last year, with Kansas City ascending to grab receiver Xavier Worthy. In the previous two drafts, Buffalo rose a couple of spots to take a prospect who intrigued it.
Buffalo has 10 picks in the 2025 draft, including two fourth-rounders and three fifth-rounders. Kansas City, meanwhile, has two third-rounders. Both are picking at the back of the first round, so any potential deal would likely involve an extra third-rounder at minimum.
With the Chiefs, the Vikings would also have to guard against the prospects the Chiefs could be coveting. Kansas City needs offensive line help. The Houston Texans, who are picking at No. 25, do, too. Fall back six or seven spots, and Minnesota could miss out on one of its targeted offensive linemen.
If the Vikings are willing to go further against the historical grain, it's also worth keeping tabs on the Cleveland Browns (No. 33), New York Giants (No. 34) and Las Vegas Raiders (No. 37). All three could be in the market for a quarterback. They could take one with their first-round selections in the top 10 or creep back into the first round to secure a fifth-year option on one of the quarterback prospects.
Cleveland, New York and Las Vegas have late third-round picks and early fourth-rounders. Would the Vikings be willing to drop approximately 10 spots for two extra mid-round picks? Or would they be more apt to stay at No. 24 and draft a more enticing player?
The answers to these questions might dictate their plans on draft night.
(Photo of Kwesi Adofo-Mensah: Stacy Revere / Getty Images)