Intel Stock Q1: More Pain Before Progress?
Logo of Intel Arc, graphics card is seen inside a desktop computer which are kept on display in a ... More stall during a comic-con event in Mumbai, India, on 12 April, 2025. (Photo by Indranil Aditya / Middle East Images / Middle East Images via AFP) (Photo by INDRANIL ADITYA/Middle East Images/AFP via Getty Images)
Intel is scheduled to announce its earnings on Thursday, April 24, 2025. Analysts expect the company to break even this quarter, forecasting an EPS of $0, compared to adjusted earnings of approximately $0.18 per share in the same quarter last year. Revenue is projected to fall by around 3% to $12.31 billion. Intel has been facing considerable challenges in its CPU segment due to continued market share erosion in both server and client computing, along with modest overall market growth. Additionally, the industry's broader shift from CPUs to GPUs in the AI era has weighed on Intel's performance. Historically, Intel stock has tended to underperform following earnings releases, with the stock delivering positive returns just 30% of the time one day after earnings over the past five years.
Intel currently holds a market capitalization of $82 billion. Over the past twelve months, the company generated $53 billion in revenue but operated at a loss, posting an operating loss of $4.7 billion and a net loss of $19 billion. For those seeking upside with less volatility than individual equities, the Trefis High-Quality portfolio offers an alternative. It has outperformed the S&P 500 and returned over 91% since its launch.
See earnings reaction history of all stocks
Key observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
Additional data on 5-day (5D) and 21-day (21D) post-earnings returns is presented in the table below.
INTC observed 1D, 5D, and 21D post-earnings return
A lower-risk approach (though only if correlation is meaningful) involves analyzing the relationship between short- and medium-term post-earnings returns. Traders can identify the strongest correlation and position accordingly. For example, if there's a strong correlation between 1D and 5D returns, a positive 1D result may suggest a 'long' position over the next 5 days. Below is correlation data based on both 5-year and 3-year (more recent) datasets. Note that 1D to 5D correlation refers to the relationship between the one-day return post earnings and the subsequent 5-day return.
INTC Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns
Peer earnings performance can also influence how a stock reacts to its own results. Often, some impact is priced in before the company announces its results. Below is historical post-earnings performance data for Intel compared with peers who reported just ahead of Intel. Peer results are also based on one-day (1D) post-earnings movements.
INTC Correlation With Peer Earnings
Learn more about the Trefis RV strategy, which has outperformed its all-cap stock benchmark—a combination of the S&P 500, S&P MidCap, and Russell 2000—generating strong investor returns. For those seeking higher returns with lower volatility than stocks like Intel, the High Quality portfolio is worth a look, as it has delivered over 91% returns since inception.
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