Canadian National Railway Lowers 2025 Outlook Amid Tariff Uncertainty
The freight railway company reported net income of 1.17 billion Canadian dollars (US$859.8 million), or C$1.87 a share, up from C$1.11 billion, or C$1.75 a share, from the prior year.
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Yahoo
an hour ago
- Yahoo
N.B. tariff aid largely untapped as Trump deadline looms
New Brunswick's tariff response plan, announced back in March, has seen few requests for help from businesses or communities, despite warnings about the province's precarious position, with more than 90 per cent of exports destined for the United States. For example, two emergency tariff funds, set aside for labour adjustments and impacted communities, have had no takers, except for Campobello Island, which got $186,000 for an early start to its summer ferry service. As for Saint John, identified as Canada's most vulnerable city, private investment appears to be booming, from development on the waterfront, to mammoth investments at the refinery and the west side pulp mill. Port Saint John says it's on track to have the most growth, ever. | Why early fears of Trump tariffs have yet to be realized: Economist Herb Emery says this is because the worst harm from tariffs and tariff uncertainty has yet to materialize and may not become apparent for another year or two or more. 'We're in kind of a weird window, where the full tariff impact hasn't hit yet," Emery said. "But it is starting to impact decision-making. Do you build your next plant in the United States or do you try to expand in New Brunswick?" Aug. 1 deadline looming Premier Susan Holt says the push is on to get the best deal for Canada ahead of an Aug. 1 deadline set by U.S. President Donald Trump. Without one, Trump has threatened to push a tariff on imports from Canada to 35 per cent from 25 per cent, although exemptions would include goods that comply with the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement. Also looming is an anti-dumping countervailing duty on Canadian lumber, set to rise from 14.54 per cent to 34.5 per cent, "within weeks," according to Forest NB, an industry association. This week, Arbec Forest Products blamed market conditions when it announced a six-week shutdown, starting in September at its Miramichi plant, where it makes wood panels for housing construction. . "Like many other New Brunswick businesses, our exports to the U.S. have been drastically affected by the current tariff situation," general manager Adam Stone said in a written statement. "We are hopeful that this pause in production will allow us to rebalance our inventories and find additional markets." Arbec said 113 employees will be affected, including 29 who won't have jobs when operations resume. The company said it's working closely with government agencies to assist affected workers. Meanwhile, forestry giant, J.D. Irving Ltd. is spending $1.1 billion to upgrade its boiler at the Irving Pulp and Paper mill in Saint John, and the Irving Oil refinery is upgrading its fluid catalytic cracking unit, which produces gasoline and diesel, at a cost of $100 million. Seafood holding steady New Brunswick seafood continues to enter the United States without a Trump tariff. "Spring production went well," said Geoff Irvine, executive director at the Lobster Council of Canada. "Demand was steady. "There are no [U.S.] tariffs today, but there is uncertainty about tariffs and that's almost as bad." Refined petroleum products and electricity produced in New Brunswick are also entering the United States tariff free. In February, Irving Oil warned customers in Maine, it would pass along the costs of Trump's 10 per cent tariff on energy but then reversed that decision after tariffs were paused. Statistics Canada shows mixed results for New Brunswick exports since Trump was sworn into office late in January. Comparing the first five months of this year with the first five of 2024, the total value of New Brunswick exports to the U.S. fell 2.8 per cent, according to data from Statistics Canada. Broken down by sector, fish and farm products fell 2.5 per cent, forestry and building products slipped two per cent but energy product exports rose 4.5 percent. None of it has dampened volume at Port Saint John, which is having a banner year. "We get asked that a lot," said Craig Bell Estabrooks, the port's CEO. "What is the shipping activity at the port? What are the volumes looking like? And we're proud to report that they're very, very strong." Estabrooks said container volumes are significantly higher than the port has ever seen. "It's growth that we were hoping for earlier in the year. But with the uncertainty, we didn't know if it was going to materialize, but it certainly has." Campobello line item Residents on Campobello Island face an hour-long drive, over the bridge to Lubec, Maine, and then through the U.S. and back into mainland New Brunswick, where they purchase supplies. That's when the ferry isn't running. This year, the island was singled out for assistance. The ferry started in May, one month early and residents are exempt from paying retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods coming in. "It was so helpful just to get that little bit because, you know, the average person that works maybe didn't mind paying, you know, 20 bucks or something on a bunch of groceries for a tariff, but you know, there's people that just couldn't afford it," said Campobello Mayor Harvey Matthews Matthews said he hasn't noticed a lot of change in the local economy, although he thinks the number of American visitors may be down. He said some U.S. citizens who own property on the island have yet to show up for the summer and that feels unusual. Otherwise, he says people are managing as before. "I'm a fisherman," Matthews said. "I guess everything was the same. What we shipped to the States is still going to the States, and what goes the other way is still going the other way. But that could change any minute. "You know, it just takes one announcement."
Politico
an hour ago
- Politico
Deadline vs. deal
Presented by Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Canada Playbook | Follow Politico Canada Thanks for reading Canada Playbook. Happy Friday! In today's edition: → Canada's quiet push to shape Trump's next trade deal. → The U.S. billionaire fighting to save 400 B.C. ostriches. → Pentagon ghosts the Halifax International Security Forum. MORNING MONEY: CAPITAL RISK — POLITICO's flagship financial newsletter has a new Friday edition built for the economic era we're living in: one shaped by political volatility, disruption and a wave of policy decisions with sector-wide consequences. Each week, Morning Money: Capital Risk brings sharp reporting and analysis on how political risk is moving markets and how investors are adapting. Want to know how health care regulation, tariffs or court rulings could ripple through the economy? Start here. Trade war HIGH-PRESSURE SYSTEM — Canada-U.S. Trade Minister DOMINIC LEBLANC says he'll be back in Washington next week as 'complex negotiations' toward a new trade and security deal inch toward that Aug. 1 deadline. LeBlanc had a 'productive, cordial meeting' with U.S. Commerce Secretary HOWARD LUTNICK in D.C. on Wednesday night. — Like the PM: The minister is emphasizing that Canada plans to 'take the time necessary to get the best deal.' — Rinse and repeat: Canada's Ambassador to the U.S., KIRSTEN HILLMAN, told reporters Thursday that negotiations will continue 'until the deal is the right deal.' — Deadline pressure: DONALD TRUMP has set an Aug. 1 deadline for reaching agreements or setting steep new tariffs on more than 100 countries. The president said all the reciprocal tariffs coming Aug. 1 will range from 15 percent to 50 percent, Bloomberg reports. — On Capitol Hill: Trade reporter DANIEL DESROCHERS reports Republican lawmakers are sounding upbeat after back-to-back meetings with U.S. Trade Representative JAMIESON GREER, praising the agreements the administration has notched and projecting optimism that there's more to come. — Not everyone's cheering: Desrochers and CHRIS MARQUETTE report that Trump's 'massive' deal with Japan is giving U.S. automakers heartburn. — Over in Europe: The European Union is eyeing a Japan-style deal that sets a 15 percent U.S. baseline tariff — but is ready to retaliate if no agreement can be reached by the Aug. 1 deadline, POLITICO's KOEN VERHELST, ANTONIA ZIMMERMANN and NETTE NÖSTLINGER report. CONVERSATION STARTER CHECK-IN WITH TRUMP 1.0 — WILBUR ROSS, who served as U.S. Commerce secretary from 2017 to 2021 and was a key figure in the Trump administration's first-term trade agenda, told POLITICO's ARI HAWKINS that his former boss is now acting with even greater brashness to impose an agenda that hammers American adversaries. This exchange stood out from where we sit. Here's Ross in his own words: What do you think is Trump's biggest achievement overall in the trade arena since taking office? 'The biggest achievement is not having a trade war. 'Think about it — Trump has changed the rules of the game. Let's say SCOTT [BESSENT] is right that [the U.S. is drawing in] $300 billion a year. What president has ever extracted [that value] from foreign countries? 'And it's not just directly through trade. 'Look at the deal he made with the NATO countries on Ukraine. Here, we get credit for selling them some of the most advanced weapons in the world — and yet it's not costing us anything. 'The other fascinating thing is that countries are now thrilled to end up paying us a 15 percent tariff. Think about it — when Trump made his first announcement, if he had said, 'We're going to insist on 15 percent from everybody,' the world would have been in an uproar. Now people say, 'Oh, only 15 percent? Thank you very much, Mr. President.'' Pro subscribers can read the interview here. THE ROOMS THAT MATTER — PM Carney has no public events on his schedule. TALK OF THE TOWN BIRDS OF A FEATHER — U.S. billionaire and Republican megadonor JOHN CATSIMATIDIS is personally appealing to Prime Minister MARK CARNEY to spare a flock of about 400 British Columbia ostriches from government-ordered slaughter following exposure to avian flu. Catsimatidis, a longtime friend of President DONALD TRUMP, wrote to the PM, asking him to save the ostriches — or else ship them to the United States. He's also reached out to Alberta Premier DANIELLE SMITH, Ontario Premier DOUG FORD and former Prime Minister STEPHEN HARPER. 'I spoke to Donald Trump about it,' Catsimatidis said. 'He knows about it.' — State of play: The U.S. Food and Drug Administration has offered to test the ostriches after they survived a bird flu outbreak on a British Columbia farm. And MEHMET OZ, the administrator for the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, has said he'll house the ostriches on his Florida ranch. The challenge to the Canadian Food Inspection Agency cull order is now before the Federal Court of Appeal in Ottawa. A decision is expected this month. 'Look, we're not here to fight. We think they're iconic animals. We think that there's a benefit to saving their lives,' Catsimatidis told Playbook. 'In America, we all have a heart, and the president even pardons turkey on Thanksgiving Day in the United States. So I just want the prime minister to have a heart and do the right thing,' he added. — Crickets: The Prime Minister's Office has declined a chance to weigh in. In Muskoka, Ontario, earlier this week, the PM said he wasn't going to comment. — No signs of budging: Behind the scenes, Liberal officials cite long-standing policies that call for a cull of birds exposed to avian flu, a health and safety concern in Canada. — Phone a friend: Catsimatidis, a known animal lover, continues to sound the alarm over the issue to top U.S. figures including Dr. Oz and Health and Human Services Secretary ROBERT F. KENNEDY JR. — Flock together: Both Smith and Ford said this week in Huntsville that they believe the birds should be saved. 'If we can find a better way than doing mass culls in any situation like this, I think it's probably worth it to try to find a better way to do it,' Smith said. Ford said he's spoken to Catsimatidis many times about the ostriches. 'I'm an animal lover and I wanna do everything I can to help them,' the premier said this week. WHO'S UP, WHO'S DOWN Up: Anger levels in the West Wing. Down: Expectations for Aug. 1. Want more POLITICO? Download our mobile app to save stories, get notifications on U.S.-Canada relations, and more. In iOS or Android . For your radar HALIFAX HIT — The Pentagon has suspended participation in all think tank and research events, POLITICO's JACK DETSCH reported Thursday, citing an email sent to staff. The Pentagon's public affairs office is also reviewing attendance policy at major security conferences — and it explicitly banned attendance at the Halifax International Security Forum, the annual confab in Nova Scotia that gathers senior military brass, Western politicians, academics and journalists. It's unclear why that forum was singled out, Detsch reported. Canada's defense minister typically plays a major role in Halifax, taking bilateral meetings with counterparts and leading onstage discussions. DAVID MCGUINTY's office declined comment Thursday. — Canadian response: The Ottawa-based Canadian Global Affairs Institute convenes conferences on defense and security — with Americans on the agenda. CGAI president DAVID PERRY called a reduced U.S. footprint 'a shame' in such an uncertain geopolitical moment. 'The U.S. remains the lead Western security and defense ally, and particularly as America goes through a significant evolution of its global defense posture, it's more important than ever for the rest of the Western alliance to understand what the Americans are thinking,' Perry told POLITICO. MORNING MUST-CLICKS — OLLIE WILLIAMS of Cabin Radio has a report on Carney's visit to Inuvik. CBC News has more on Carney's meeting with NATAN OBED, president of Inuit Tapiriit Kanatami, and other Inuit leaders. — The PM is calling for Israel to relinquish control of aid delivery to Gaza. The Globe's STEVE CHASE has the story. — FAKIHA BAIG of The Canadian Press weighs in on the upcoming federal by-election in Battle River-Crowfoot. — POLITICO's CAITLIN OPRYSKO reports that the first six months of Trump's term have produced a cash cow of historic magnitude for the lobbying industry in Washington. — CALDER MCHUGH writes on Trump's 'South Park' problem. PLAYBOOKERS Birthdays: HBD to journo PAUL PARK, senior producer of CBC's 'The House' JENNIFER CHEVALIER, former P.E.I. premier and retired Sen. CATHERINE CALLBECK, former Montreal Mayor DENIS CODERRE, B.C. Cabmin BOWINN MA (40!) and MADISON KUCHAR of McMillan Vantage. Saturday: Hill journo PAUL WELLS, Bloomberg's RANDY THANTHONG-KNIGHT, the Canada West Foundation's GARY MAR, Bluesky's JANICE NICHOLSON, Navigator's COLIN MACDONALD and Maple Leaf Strategies' DIMITRI PANTAZOPOULOS. Sunday: Former Cabmins PETER KENT and BEV ODA, retired Sens. CAROLYN STEWART OLSEN and CLAUDETTE TARDIF, and former MPs COLIN FRASER and SHAWN MURPHY. Also celebrating: JULIE CHAISSON, executive director of the Nova Scotia PC caucus office. Movers and shakers: VIRGINIA MEARNS is Canada's new Arctic ambassador. Mearns was formerly senior director of Inuit relations at the Qikiqtani Inuit Association. Send Playbookers tips to canadaplaybook@ LOBBY WATCH — Troilus Gold Corporation logged recent meetings with Prime Minister MARK CARNEY, Energy Minister TIM HODGSON, Environment Minister JULIE DABRUSIN, Industry Minister MÉLANIE JOLY, Finance Minister FRANÇOIS-PHILIPPE CHAMPAGNE, Quebec Lieutenant STEVEN GUILBEAULT and Canada-U.S. Trade Minister DOMINIC LEBLANC. — Mattamy Homes posted a June 27 meeting with Housing Minister GREGOR ROBERTSON and senior staff from his office; Deputy Minister PAUL HALUCHA; and KYLE FOX, deputy policy director to Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne. — McKesson Canada, a network of pharmacies that includes Guardian, I.D.A. and The Medicine Shoppe brands, posted a July 17 meeting with ANIE PERRAULT, acting chair of the Patented Medicine Prices Review Board. Earlier this month, The Globe and Mail reported on the federal regulator's new guidelines for monitoring drug prices. — Calian Group logged a July 23 meeting with Lt.-Gen. MICHAEL WRIGHT, commander of the Canadian Army. Top priority: 'Canada's plans to increase defence spending, and supporting defence / national security capability development.' PROZONE For Pro subscribers, our latest policy newsletter. From Pro trade reporter DOUG PALMER: As Trump raises tariffs, companies find ways to cheat — and risk getting caught. In other Pro headlines: — UN court declares countries must tackle climate change. — White House gives Chevron green light to resume oil production in Venezuela. — What clean energy bosses say about Trump's attacks on renewables. — Trump's AI plan meets a stressed American electric grid. — With US out of picture, EU tries to fill the climate void with China. — Trump's minerals adviser moves to inner White House circle. TRIVIA Thursday's answer: On July 24, 1984, then-federal party leaders JOHN TURNER, BRIAN MULRONEY and ED BROADBENT met in the first televised election debate held solely in French. Props to JOHN MERRIMAN, JOHN PEPPER, SHAUGHN MCARTHUR, ELIZABETH BURN, JOANNA PLATER, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, ANDREW SZENDE. Friday's question (via reader DARREN MAJOR): In 2013, HULK HOGAN arm-wrestled then-Mayor ROB FORD to help promote the Fan Expo convention in Toronto. What other 1980s wrestler challenged Ford to an arm wrestling match — but never got one? Think you know your 1980s wrestlers? Hit us back: canadaplaybook@
Yahoo
7 hours ago
- Yahoo
Canada's trade team downplays chances of deal with Trump by Aug. 1
With the clock ticking on U.S. President Donald Trump's threat to boost tariffs on some Canadian exports to 35 per cent starting Aug. 1, Canada's top trade negotiators are downplaying the likelihood of reaching a deal by that deadline. Dominic LeBlanc, minister responsible for Canada-U.S. trade, and Canada's ambassador to the U.S., Kirsten Hillman, wrapped up two days of meetings with Republican senators. These included a brief sit-down between LeBlanc and Howard Lutnick, the U.S. secretary of commerce and Trump's point man on tariffs. "We've made progress, but we have a lot of work in front of us," LeBlanc told reporters outside a Senate office building on Thursday. LeBlanc said he had a "productive, cordial discussion" with Lutnick and plans to return to Washington next week. He also added some caveats about the path to reaching a deal. "We're going to continue to work toward the Aug. 1 deadline,' he said. "But all of these deadlines are with the understanding that we'll take the time necessary to get the best deal that we think is in the interest of the Canadian economy and Canadian workers." Hillman, who was appointed Canada's chief negotiator with the U.S., also suggested an agreement with the Trump administration is not imminent. WATCH | Dominic LeBlanc speaks after meeting Trump's point man on tariffs: "It's important for us to recognize that there is a time when the deal is the right deal, and it's important for us to be in a position to continue negotiating until we get to that point," she said. Their comments are the latest evidence that Prime Minister Mark Carney's government is not in a rush to sign a deal with the U.S. Carney said Tuesday that his objective is "not to reach a deal whatever it costs." Following Carney's meeting with Canada's premiers earlier this week, Nova Scotia's Tim Houston said the prime minister isn't dead set on signing a deal by the deadline. Other countries reach tariff deals with Trump This comes amid Trump's announcements this week of framework agreements on tariffs struck with Japan and Indonesia, and reports the U.S. is closing in on a deal with the European Union. Canada may be less panicked than other trading partners about the Aug. 1 deadline because only a small portion of Canada's exports to the U.S. would be affected by Trump's threat of 35 per cent tariffs. That's because most goods enter the U.S. tariff-free under the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement, or CUSMA. Officials say LeBlanc and Hillman met with five Republican senators in Washington: Kevin Cramer (North Dakota), Roger Marshall (Kansas), Shelley Moore Capito (West Virginia), Tim Scott (South Carolina) and Todd Young (Indiana). Another Republican senator, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, told reporters in Washington on Thursday that the U.S. shares a lot of security and economic interests with Canada and shouldn't treat it as "just another country" when it comes to tariffs. "I wish that I could say it feels good, that this is all going to be taken care of before the first of August, but I'm not sensing that," said Murkowski, who visited Ottawa on Monday to meet Carney and some of his cabinet ministers
