Are Man Utd improving under Amorim?

BBC News

2 days ago

With just one win in their past 10 Premier League games, only a fool would say Manchester United have actually been getting better in the past six months under Ruben Amorim.And yet, that is exactly what the stats suggest.While starting from a low bar, United have been dominating games more and more since the start of March - creating more, and better chances than their opponents overall across the past 12 games.The problem has been in both boxes, with the side scoring seven goals fewer than we would expect historically given the chances they have had, and conceding two more than expected at the other end.The below graph shows United's 28 Premier League games under Amorim so far, with the falling red line showing their changing 10-game non-penalty goal difference (their results) and the climbing yellow one showing their expected goal difference (their dominance in games).
In fact, since the start of March only five teams have a better non-penalty expected goal difference than United, but the Red Devils have taken far fewer points than the teams around them.
Why is all this 'expected goals' stuff important when - at the end of the day - scoring and conceding actual goals is the only thing that matters?Because, history tells us that football is a simple game - the more a team creates lots of good chances up front while allowing few bad ones at the back, the more success they have in the long-term.While what a team does in both boxes is obviously very important, not even the most blessed teams - or the most cursed - can 'cheat' their expected goal numbers forever.Like the belly and the rhythm, the xG is eventually going to get you.