Syngenta group expects minimal impact from U.S tariffs in 2025, executive says
CAMPINAS, Brazil (Reuters) -Agrochemicals company Syngenta Group expects a minimal impact from tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump on its business in 2025, Steven Hawkins, global president of Syngenta's crop protection business, said on Tuesday.
While the company is growing and investing in its portfolio of biological products, these are not a substitute for synthetic crop protections, Hawkins told journalists on the sidelines of Syngenta's One Agro event in Brazil's Campinas, a city in the state of Sao Paulo.
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San Francisco Chronicle
33 minutes ago
- San Francisco Chronicle
Unrest in the Middle East threatens to send some prices higher
Israel's attack on Iran Friday has catapulted their long-running conflict into what could become a wider, more dangerous regional war and potentially drive prices higher for both businesses and households. Oil and gold surged and the dollar rose as markets retreated, signaling a flight to investments perceived as more safe. After years of sky-high inflation in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, Americans have become increasingly leery about the economy this year due to President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs, though the impact so far has been muted. The latest escalation in the Middle East has the potential to cause widespread price increases that could set consumers back again. Here's a look at some of the sectors that could face an outsized impact from the escalation in the Middle East, and what that might mean for consumers. Energy Oil prices surged Friday to their biggest gain since the onset of Russia's war on Ukraine began more than three years ago. If or when Israel's attack on Iran could impact gas prices, which have been in decline for nearly a year, isn't entirely clear. Iran is one of the world's major producers of oil, though sanctions by Western countries have limited its sales. If a wider war erupts, it could significantly slow or stop the flow of Iran's oil to its customers. Energy prices have been held in check this year because production has remained relatively high, and demand for it low. A widening conflict could tilt that balance. 'The loss of this export supply would wipe out the surplus that was expected in the fourth quarter of this year,' analysts for ING wrote in a note to clients. In the past, conflicts in the Middle East have sent energy price soaring for extended periods but in recent years, because of the huge supply of oil, those spikes have been more fleeting. Earlier this month, the countries in the OPEC+ alliance decided to increase production again, which often pushes crude prices down. They hit a four-year low in early May. That usually means cheaper gas, of which there is currently a surplus. According to the auto club organization AAA, the average price for a gallon of gas in the U.S. on Friday was $3.13 per gallon, down from $3.46 a year ago. Shipping Shipping costs were already on the rise for a number of reasons. Cargo is being rerouted around the Red Sea where the U.S. began conducting air strikes on Yemen's Houthis, the Iran-backed rebels who were attacking ships on what is a vital global trade route. And this year, companies have scrambled to import as many goods as possible before Trump's tariffs kicked in, pushing demand, and prices to ship, higher. The Baltic Dry Index, a key indicator of dry bulk shipping demand that tacks the movement of coal, iron ore, grains and more, is hitting eight-month highs. The window for companies seeking to ship goods before the year's end is coming to a close this month. A widening conflict in the Middle East would only drive prices higher as those companies jostle to get goods from overseas as geopolitical tensions in the region rise. Shares of ocean shipping companies like Teekay and Frontline rose sharply following Israel's attack. Consumer goods Higher energy prices can lead to elevated costs for a wide range of products because just about everything is made and transported using oil or natural gas. Government data this week revealed that Trump's tariffs have yet to cause a broader rise in inflation. Still, many companies have announced price hikes due to the tariffs. Walmart has already raised prices on some goods and said it will do so again as the back-to-school shopping season begins. J.M. Smucker, largely due to the impact of tariffs on coffee from Brazil and Vietnam, said it's also raised prices and will do so again. Combined with the higher shipping and production costs that could result from the escalated Middle East conflict, prices will almost certainly rise further, analysts say. 'Inventory buffers may have allowed firms to put off decisions about raising prices, but that won't be the case for much longer,' the ING analysts said. 'We expect to see bigger spikes in the month-on-month inflation figures through the summer,' they added, noting that The Fed's recent Beige Book cited widespread reports of aggressive price hikes already in the pipeline. Federal Reserve Federal Reserve officials meet next week to make their next interest rate decision, and the vast majority of economists still think the U.S. central bank will leave its benchmark rate where it is for the fourth straight time. The Fed has been juggling its dual mandate of supporting the labor market while keeping inflation at bay. That goal may become increasingly difficult to achieve if prices for gas, food and other essential rise due to the Israel-Iran conflict. If prices go up, Fed officials may be inclined to raise its benchmark rate, raising borrowing costs for businesses and consumers. That could lead to businesses to cut jobs, particularly in the high-growth tech sector, and force Americans to pull back on spending, which drives more than 70% of economic activity in the U.S. Travel Perhaps contrary to conventional wisdom, one cascading effect of the heightened Middle East tension may be that the cost of traveling, even if fuel prices rise, will come down. Airlines have been downgrading their travel forecasts as businesses and families tighten their travel budgets in anticipation of tariff-related price hikes. Several major air disasters also have made some wary of getting on a plane. Most major U.S. airlines have said they plan to reduce their scheduled domestic flights this summer, citing an ebb in economy passengers booking leisure trips. Last month, Bank of America reported that its credit card customers were spending less on flights and lodging. And because of the Trump tariff wars, the dollar has fallen almost 10% this year when measured against a basket of foreign currencies, making it more expensive for Americans to travel abroad due to unfavorable exchange rates.
Yahoo
33 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Trump Touts Higher Duty Rate for Chinese Imports Under New Trade Deal
Hours after his cabinet announced that the United States would resume its previously agreed upon trade truce with China, President Donald Trump stoked confusion by revealing a new tariff rate of 55 percent for the sourcing superpower. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, along with U.S. Trade Representative Ambassador Jamieson Greer, traveled to London this week to sit down with Chinese trade officials following weeks of trade tensions and the crumbling of a provisional agreement solidified in Switzerland in mid-May. More from Sourcing Journal China-to-US Freight Rates 'No Longer Surging'-Is it All Downhill from Here? Trump Likely to Extend Tariff Pause as Negotiations Take Shape, Treasury Secretary Says China and US Return to Terms of May Trade Truce At the end of negotiations on Tuesday, Lutnick indicated that both sides had agreed to 'implement the Geneva consensus' upon approval from Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. That deal centered on the deferral of reciprocal duties—lowered on the U.S. side to 30 percent and China's side to 10 percent—for three months. But by Wednesday morning, Trump had Truthed new information about the deal, saying that China will now pay a 55-percent duty rate, while the U.S. will still be subject to 10-percent tariffs on any goods imported into China. An all-caps missive said the deal with China was done, though subject to final approval by Xi and himself. 'RELATIONSHIP IS EXCELLENT!' he wrote. The president did not elucidate the reasoning for the 55-percent rate, which appears on its face to be a a 25-percent increase from the May agreement. But a White House spokesperson, who spoke to The Guardian anonymously, said the rate includes Trump's 10-percent universal baseline tariffs, a previous 20-percent punitive duty for fentanyl trafficking and an existing 25-percent tariff on China-made goods. 'A reported 55 percent tariff on our largest supplier of American apparel and footwear, stacked on top of already high MFN and Section 301 rates is not a win for America,' Steve Lamar, president and CEO of the American Apparel and Footwear Association, said in a statement. 'We're closely watching for more details, but the reality is this: nearly all clothes and shoes sold in the U.S. are now subject to elevated tariff rates,' he added. 'These costs will hit American families hard especially as they get ready for back-to-school shopping and the holiday seasons. New trade deals that bring lower tariffs can't come soon enough.' At a budget meeting with the House Ways and Means Committee on Wednesday, Secretary Bessent seemed to hint that the China deal may be shakier than the president indicated in his post on Truth Social. 'China has a singular opportunity to stabilize its economy by shifting away from excess production towards greater consumption. But the country needs to be a reliable partner in trade negotiations,' he told the Committee. 'If China will course-correct by upholding its end of the initial trade agreement we outlined in Geneva last month, then a big, beautiful rebalancing of the world's two largest economies is possible.' Footwear Distributors and Retailers of America senior vice president Andy Polk told Sourcing Journal that he believes this week's trade talks represent 'more political marketing than anything else.' 'It is positive that high level talks continue in hopes of getting us closer to a tariff end-game,' he said. 'However, there doesn't seem to be anything rally new coming out of these talks, just a climb down from threats.' Calling the president's tariff calculations 'very confusing,' Polk said he believes the 55-percent rate includes the Section 301 duties from his first term, the 20-percent fentanyl-related tariffs and the 10-percent baseline duties for all trade partners, among others. 'It is not a new tariff rate he is adding, it just seems to be fuzzy tariff math on his part.''Perhaps these steps forward will continue to unlock other issues to reduce this trade impasse, but I am not sure they are tackling the big items in a speed we need,' Polk said. 'We need a real deal that reduces tariffs back to reasonable levels quickly, and one that stabilizes them so shoe companies aren't jolted around constantly.' Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
34 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Analysis-OPEC+ would struggle to cover major Iranian oil supply disruption
By Ahmad Ghaddar and Seher Dareen LONDON (Reuters) -Oil market participants have switched to dreading a shortage in fuel from focusing on impending oversupply in just two days this week. After Israel attacked Iran and Tehran pledged to retaliate, oil prices jumped as much as 13% to their highest since January as investors price in an increased probability of a major disruption in Middle East oil supplies. Part of the reason for the rapid spike is that spare capacity among OPEC and allies to pump more oil to offset any disruption is roughly equivalent to Iran's output, according to analysts and OPEC watchers. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are the only OPEC+ members capable of quickly boosting output and could pump around 3.5 million barrels per day (bpd) more, analysts and industry sources said. Iran's production stands at around 3.3 million bpd, and it exports over 2 million bpd of oil and fuel. There has been no impact on output so far from Israel's attacks on Iran's oil and gas infrastructure, nor on exports from the region. But fears that Israel may destroy Iranian oil facilities to deprive it of its main source of revenue have driven oil prices higher. The Brent benchmark last traded up nearly 7% at over $74 on Friday. An attack with a significant impact on Iranian output that required other producers to pump more to plug the gap would leave very little spare capacity to deal with other disruptions - which can happen due to war, natural disasters or accidents. And that with a caveat that Iran does not attack its neighbours in retaliation for Israeli strikes. Iran has in the past threatened to disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz if it is attacked. The Strait is the exit route from the Middle East Gulf for around 20% of the world's oil supply, including Saudi, UAE, Kuwaiti, Iraqi and Iranian exports. Iran has also previously stated that it would attack other oil suppliers that filled any gap in supplies left due to sanctions or attacks on Iran. "If Iran responds by disrupting oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, targeting regional oil infrastructure, or striking U.S. military assets, the market reaction could be much more severe, potentially pushing prices up by $20 per barrel or more," said Jorge Leon, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad and a former OPEC official. CHANGE IN CALCULUS The abrupt change in calculus for oil investors this week comes after months in which output increases from OPEC and its allies, a group known as OPEC+, have led to investor concern about future oversupply and a potential price crash. Saudi Arabia, the de facto leader of OPEC, has been the driving force behind an acceleration in the group's output increases, in part to punish allies that have pumped more oil than they were supposed to under OPEC+ agreements. The increases have already strained the capacity of some members to produce more, causing them to fall short of their new targets. Even after recent increases, the group still has output curbs in place of about 4.5 million bpd, which were agreed over the past five years to balance supply and demand. But some of that spare oil capacity - the difference between actual output and notional production potential that can be brought online quickly and sustained - exists only on paper. After years of production cuts and reduced oilfield investment following the COVID-19 pandemic, the oilfields and facilities may no longer be able to restart quickly, said analysts and OPEC watchers. Western sanctions on Iran, Russia and Venezuela have also led to decreases in oil investment in those countries. "Following the July hike, most OPEC members, excluding Saudi Arabia, appear to be producing at or near maximum capacity," J.P. Morgan said in a note. Outside of Saudi Arabia and the UAE, spare capacity was negligible, said a senior industry source who works with OPEC+ producers. "Saudi are the only ones with real barrels, the rest is paper," the source said. He asked not to be named due to the sensitivity of the matter. PAPER BARRELS Saudi oil output is set to rise to above 9.5 million bpd in July, leaving the kingdom with the ability to raise output by another 2.5 million bpd if it decides to. That capacity has been tested, however, only once in the last decade and only for one month in 2020 when Saudi Arabia and Russia fell out and pumped at will in a fight for market share. Saudi Arabia has also stopped investing in expanding its spare capacity beyond 12 million bpd as the kingdom diverted resources to other projects. Russia, the second largest producer inside OPEC+, claims it can pump above 12 million bpd. JP Morgan estimates, however, that Moscow can only ramp up output by 250,000 bpd to 9.5 million bpd over the next three months and will struggle to raise output further due to sanctions. The UAE says its maximum oil production capacity is 4.85 million bpd, and told OPEC that its production of crude alone in April stood at just over 2.9 million bpd, a figure largely endorsed by OPEC's secondary sources. The International Energy Agency, however, estimated the country's crude production at about 3.3 million bpd in April, and says the UAE has the capacity to raise that by a further 1 million bpd. BNP Paribas sees UAE output even higher at 3.5-4.0 million bpd. "I think spare capacity is significantly lower than what's often quoted," said BNP analyst Aldo Spanjer. The difference in ability to raise production has already created tensions inside OPEC+. Saudi Arabia favours unwinding cuts of about 800,000 bpd by the end of October, sources have told Reuters. At their last meeting, Russia along with Oman and Algeria expressed support for pausing a hike for July.
