Column: History shows that summits are unpredictable

Chicago Tribune

2 days ago

Alaska carries a lot of symbolism, especially for Americans. The phrase 'North to Alaska' is the title of a popular song performed by Johnny Horton, a rockabilly singer of the 1950s, and a 1960 film starring John Wayne.
Both song and film are earthy and gritty, emphasizing the uncertainty of life.
That sentiment is appropriate to open a discussion about the Alaska summit between Presidents Vladimir Putin of Russia and Donald Trump of the United States. At a minimum, talking is preferable to fighting.
As Winston Churchill observed, 'To jaw-jaw is better than to war-war.' The great British leader made that statement in 1954, when the Soviet-U.S. Cold War was intense. He knew what he was talking about.
Churchill had participated in five separate wars on four continents before he was 42 years old.
He is also credited with coining the term 'summit' to describe consequential meetings between leaders.
During World War II, the first encounter was between him and President Franklin D. Roosevelt in August of 1941, off the coast of Newfoundland, four months before the attack on Pearl Harbor. One of the last of the war was held in Yalta, on the southern coast of Crimea, early in 1945. Joseph Stalin of the Soviet Union was at Yalta and others.
The Newfoundland summit resulted in the Atlantic Charter, confirmation of human rights that laid the foundation for the United Nations. The Yalta summit acknowledged Soviet occupation of Eastern Europe, and later fed intense partisan criticism and recriminations in the U.S. as Republicans attacked FDR for allegedly 'selling out' to communists.
In short, summits are unpredictable, and results are dependent on many factors, including the personalities of the leaders involved.
Regarding the Alaska summit, potentially important mixed symbolic history is involved.
Putin is meeting on U.S. soil rather than on more traditional neutral ground, such as Geneva, Switzerland. The venue also implies Trump's publicly stated fascination with northern latitudes, including specifically his fantasies about annexing both Canada and Greenland, the latter a territory of Denmark. Leaders in neither Ottawa nor Copenhagen have concurred with these suggestions.
Alaska was a territory of Imperial Russia before purchase by the United States in 1867 for $7.2 million. Secretary of State William Seward, who initiated the deal, was severely criticized at the time and afterwards. Acquiring the territory was widely referred to as 'Seward's Folly.' The purchase did head off Alaska's acquisition by Great Britain.
Seward carried the day thanks to impressive political skill and general prestige. A powerful Republican leader from New York, he was a rival of Abraham Lincoln for the 1860 Republican presidential nomination. He joined Lincoln's Cabinet, and became a close ally and friend during the Civil War. Events of later years, including especially the discovery of gold in Alaska, led to belated appreciation of his territorial acquisition.
Before the summit, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was adamant about not surrendering territory, while Putin has demanded such concessions. Either way, two-way or three-way discussions could lay the foundation for later agreement.
President Trump stresses the importance of effective negotiation, and he should relish this opportunity.
Soviet economic weakness led to eventual collapse; Russia's economy remains weak. Trump's threat of increased sanctions doubtless led Putin to agree to meet in Alaska.