Asteroid 2024 YR4's chances of colliding with Earth drop near zero
Asteroid 2024 YR4, deemed the riskiest asteroid on record last week, now has nearly a zero percent chance of impacting Earth in 2032, according to NASA and the European Space Agency.
NASA estimates that the space rock has a 0.0017% chance of hitting Earth in December 2032, while the ESA has a similar risk assessment of 0.002%.
That's a 1 in 59,000 possibility of impact, meaning there is a 99.9983% chance that the asteroid will safely zip by Earth in seven years, according to NASA. The agency also shared that the new data suggested that the asteroid had a 1.7% chance of hitting the moon, but those slight odds of impact do not pose a risk to Earth.
'When first discovered, asteroid 2024 YR4 had a very small, but notable chance of impacting our planet in 2032,' the agency shared on Monday.
'As observations of the asteroid continued to be submitted to the Minor Planet Center, experts at NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies were able to calculate more precise models of the asteroid's trajectory and now have found there is no significant potential for this asteroid to impact our planet for the next century. The latest observations have further reduced the uncertainty of its future trajectory, and the range of possible locations the asteroid could be on Dec. 22, 2032, has moved farther away from the Earth.'
Over the weekend, the asteroid also dropped to a ranking of 0 out of 10 on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, a tool for categorizing potential collisions of space objects with Earth. The ranking indicates 'the likelihood of a collision is zero, or is so low as to be effectively zero. Also applies to small objects such as meteors and bodies that burn up in the atmosphere as well as infrequent meteorite falls that rarely cause damage.'
Asteroid 2024 YR4, detected by telescopes on December 27, 2024, is estimated to be 131 to 295 feet (40 to 90 meters) wide, comparable to a large building, and could cause local devastation if it were to collide with our planet.
The quick de-escalation of the asteroid's risk assessment is thanks to 'unsung, meticulous work by astronomers' who conducted a steady stream of follow-up observations of the space rock using telescopes across the globe, said Richard Binzel, inventor of the Torino Scale. Binzel is a professor of planetary sciences, joint professor of aerospace engineering and MacVicar Faculty Fellow at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
'I'm pleasantly surprised that we could reduce the probability numbers so quickly,' Binzel said. 'It would not have done anyone any good to have this probability hang around for a long time because it was going to go to zero. The reason I say it was going to go to zero is at the end of the day, the probability is either zero and it misses you, or it's one and it hits you. Any number in between is just the space of your uncertainty. We didn't want us to have to sit in that time and space of uncertainty for months and months.'
From record-breaking to nonthreatening
Early last week, 2024 YR4 briefly broke a record once reached by the asteroid Apophis after it was first spotted in 2004.
At its peak threat level, 2024 YR4 reached a 3 on the Torino Scale and had an estimated 3.1% chance of hitting Earth in 2032, according to NASA. The ESA's observations reached a peak of a 2.8% risk.
The narrow difference was due to the two agencies' use of different tools for determining the asteroid's orbit and modeling its potential impact. But both percentages rose above the 2.7% chance of collision once associated with Apophis, making 2024 YR4 the most significant space rock to be spotted within the past two decades.
However, as with Apophis, astronomers expected the risk for 2024 YR4 to spike and then fall to zero as they obtained more observational data to reduce uncertainties about the asteroid's path.
Measuring 1,148 feet (350 meters) in diameter, Apophis was previously considered one of the most hazardous asteroids, with a chance of hitting our planet and reaching a 4 out of 10 on the Torino Scale. The rating meant that the asteroid merited astronomers' attention and tracking. Apophis reached a 4 because it was a larger object capable of regional damage, while 2024 YR4 garnered a 3 because it would cause local damage, Binzel said.
But like 2024 YR4, Apophis also quickly dropped from a 4 to a 0 on the Torino Scale after astronomers spotted archival observations of the asteroid that more precisely clarified its orbit. While Apophis is still set to make a close flyby of Earth in 2029 that will be studied by multiple spacecraft, it poses no risk to Earth within this century.
The biggest obstacle astronomers face when trying to determine the risk posed by newly discovered asteroids is calculating the unknowns. In the case of 2024 YR4, that includes the space rock's size as well as its orbit.
Observations taken during the dark skies necessary for ground-based telescopes to track faint, small asteroids after February's full moon, which shone brightly in the night sky on February 12, helped astronomers quickly decrease the risk assessment for 2024 YR4.
Key telescopes have included the Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope, the Subaru Telescope and Haleakala-Faulkes Telescope North, all located in the Hawaiian Islands, as well as New Mexico's Magdalena Ridge Observatory, the Gemini South Observatory in the Chilean Andes, Arizona's Lowell Discovery Telescope and the Nordic Optical Telescope in the Canary Islands.
'The atmosphere above Maunakea tends to be very stable, and it enables telescopes to produce very sharp images, sharper than most other observatory locations,' said David Tholen, an astronomer at the University of Hawaii's Institute for Astronomy, in a statement.
The likelihood of 2024 YR4's impact has dropped just in time. Astronomers were concerned because the space rock's trajectory, carrying it away from Earth in a straight line, meant the asteroid would be out of reach of ground-based telescopes in April and wouldn't reappear until June 2028.
However, astronomers plan to remain vigilant in observing the space rock to ensure that 2024 YR4 poses no risk, and the James Webb Space Telescope is expected to observe the asteroid in early March to pin down more details about its orbit and exact size.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Forbes
40 minutes ago
- Forbes
Hubble Space Telescope Reveals Moons And Rings Of ‘Weird' Uranus
NASA's Hubble Space Telescope has snapped new images of the solar system's seventh planet, Uranus, revealing not only its rings but new secrets about its intriguing moons and how its magnetic field works. The five largest moons of Uranus – sometimes called the 'classical moons' — appear in a jagged, ... More roughly diagonal line from top right to bottom left. These are labeled Titania, Oberon, Umbriel, Miranda and Ariel. Also visible is Ariel's shadow, which is superimposed on Uranus. Faint, ghostly, Saturn-like rings encircle the blue ice giant. Hubble's new ultraviolet image of Uranus, taken with its Advanced Camera for Surveys, shows the gas giant planet in space with its five largest moons — often referred to as its 'classical moons' — in a jagged line. The moons — Titania, Oberon, Umbriel, Miranda and Ariel — were captured in the image, which was published on June 10. Ariel can be seen transiting the disk of Uranus, with its shadow apparent on the planet's blue methane-rich atmosphere. All may be 'ocean worlds,' which could host life. The image also shows faint, ghostly rings around Uranus. According to NASA, Uranus has 13 faint rings in total, divided into two distinct sets. In 2023, the James Webb Space Telescope imaged the rings of Uranus and six of its 27 moons and is expected to do so again. The five largest moons of Uranus – sometimes called the 'classical moons' — appear in a jagged, ... More roughly diagonal line from top right to bottom left. These are labeled Titania, Oberon, Umbriel, Miranda and Ariel. Also visible is Ariel's shadow, which is superimposed on Uranus. Faint, ghostly, Saturn-like rings encircle the blue ice giant. This new study, presented during a press conference at AAS 246 in Anchorage, Alaska, on Tuesday, June 10, examines the magnetic environment of Uranus and its largest moons. It reveals surprising findings. Scientists had expected that radiation from the magnetic field of Uranus would darken the trailing hemispheres of its moons, but an analysis of the surfaces of Uranus' four major moons — Ariel, Umbriel, Titania and Oberon — found the opposite. That suggests that Uranus' magnetosphere might not interact much with its large moons, and it may be either dormant or much more complicated than previously thought. 'Uranus is weird, so it's always been uncertain how much the magnetic field actually interacts with its satellites,' said Richard Cartwright, principal investigator at the Johns Hopkins University's Applied Physics Laboratory in Laurel, Maryland. 'For starters, it is tilted by 98 degrees relative to the ecliptic." That means it rolls on its side as it completes its 84-Earth-year orbit of the sun. The two ice giant planets in the solar system — Uranus and Neptune — remain unexplored, having had only brief flybys by Voyager 2 in 1986 and 1989, respectively. Planetary scientists' lack of detailed knowledge about ice giants (large planets composed mainly of elements heavier than hydrogen and helium) has become more significant in recent years, particularly with research into exoplanets — planets that orbit a star other than the sun. According to research, the most typical size of exoplanets in the Milky Way is between that of Earth and Neptune, which are likely to be ice giants. If astronomers are to understand other star systems, they need a baseline — and that means sending a mission to Uranus or Neptune. Hopes are fading for a much-needed NASA flagship mission to Uranus. Despite being recommended as NASA's highest priority large mission in 2022 by the National Academy of Sciences, the likelihood of a $4.2 billion orbiter — with an atmospheric probe to dive beneath its clouds — is now small in the light of a 'destructive proposal' by the Trump Administration to cut almost $6 billion (24%) from the space agency's budget. Scientists want NASA to send the mission in 2032, with a planned arrival at Uranus in 2045. The next best launch window is in the 2090s.
Yahoo
an hour ago
- Yahoo
Propellant leak delays SpaceX launch of private Ax-4 astronaut mission to the ISS
When you buy through links on our articles, Future and its syndication partners may earn a commission. Four private astronauts will have to wait a bit longer to get to space. The four-person Ax-4 mission to the International Space Station (ISS) was supposed to lift off atop a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket from NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida on Wednesday morning (June 11). But that's no longer the plan. "Standing down from tomorrow's Falcon 9 launch of Ax-4 to the @Space_Station to allow additional time for SpaceX teams to repair the LOx leak identified during post static fire booster inspections. Once complete — and pending Range availability — we will share a new launch date," SpaceX announced via X on Tuesday evening (June 10). LOx is liquid oxygen, one of the two propellants used by the Falcon 9's Merlin engines. The other is RP-1, a rocket-grade kerosene. As SpaceX's post mentioned, the company noticed the LOx leak after static-firing the rocket's first stage, an activity that took place on Sunday (June 8). Static fires are common prelaunch tests in which a rocket's engines are briefly ignited while the booster is anchored to the pad. Bill Gerstenmaier, SpaceX's vice president of build and flight reliability, discussed the leak during a press conference on Monday (June 9) that was held after Ax-4's launch readiness review. This Falcon 9 first stage has one flight under its belt, and the leak was also seen on that mission, during its reentry to Earth's atmosphere, Gerstenmaier said. SpaceX "discovered that we had not fully repaired the booster during refurbishment, or we didn't, actually, didn't find the leak and didn't get it corrected," he said. Gerstenmaier said on Monday that SpaceX was still troubleshooting the leak, though he expressed confidence that the issue wouldn't prevent an on-time liftoff. "We're installing a purge that will essentially mitigate the leak, if it still continues, if we see it on launch day," he said. "So we will be fully ready to go fly." Related stories: — Axiom Space: Building the off-Earth economy — International Space Station: Everything you need to know about the orbital laboratory — Axiom Space eyes the moon while continuing to dream big in Earth orbit Ax-4 will be the fourth astronaut mission to the ISS organized by the Houston company Axiom Space. It will be commanded by Peggy Whitson, a record-breaking former NASA astronaut who is now Axiom's director of human spaceflight. The other crewmembers are pilot Shubhanshu Shukla of India; mission specialist Sławosz Uznański-Wiśniewski of Poland and the European Space Agency; and Hungarian mission specialist Tibor Kapu. No astronaut from any of these three countries has ever visited the ISS before. The Ax-4 astronauts will spend about two weeks living and working aboard the orbiting lab, performing about 60 different science experiments. They'll then return to Earth with a splashdown in the Pacific Ocean.
Time Magazine
2 hours ago
- Time Magazine
Partner of the First U.S. Woman in Space Reflects On Their Hidden Relationship
History does not record if Sally Ride rolled her eyes when she got a look at the plans for the first toiletry kit NASA put together for its female astronauts—but she'd have been within her rights to do so. The space agency certainly knew how to pack for men, providing them more or less the basics—deodorant, toothpaste, toothbrush, razor. The women would get the essentials too, but there would be more: lipstick, blush, eyeliner, and, critically, up to 100 tampons—because who-all knew just how many the average woman would need during the average week in space? That first toiletry kit was planned before June 18, 1983, when Ride went aloft on the shuttle Challenger, becoming the first American woman in space, breaking the gender barrier the Soviets had broken with cosmonaut Valentina Tereshkova, just over 20 years to the day earlier. The tampon nonsense was not the only indignity NASA's female astronauts in general and Ride in particular had to endure. Her story is chronicled in the evocative new documentary Sally, a 2025 winner of the Sundance Film Festival 's Alfred P. Sloan feature film prize. Among the memorable moments Ride experienced was the pre-flight press conference during which a TIME magazine correspondent raised his hand and asked, 'Dr. Ride, a couple of fast questions, sir…ma'am.' There was, too, the reporter who pointedly asked Ride 'Do you weep?' when confronted with a particularly knotty problem during training. There was the bouquet of flowers Ride was handed after the shuttle landed, intended as a gift to America's first space heroine—a gift Ride politely refused to accept, sparking all manner of criticism in the mainstream press. More important than all of that, though, was the private— exceedingly private—side to Ride, most notably her 27-year relationship with her life partner Tam O'Shaughnessy, a marriage-in-all-but-name that wasn't revealed until Ride died of pancreatic cancer in 2012 at age 61, and O'Shaughnessy told the world in the obituary she wrote to mark her mate's passing. Not long before Ride died, O'Shaughnessey gently broached how—and whether—she should reveal their more-than quarter century secret. 'I asked Sally about that. I said, you know, 'I'm kind of worried. I don't know what I'm going to write, you know, how I'm going to navigate this,'' O'Shaughnessy recalled in a recent conversation with TIME, ahead of the release of the film. 'And she said, 'You decide. Whatever you decide will be the right thing to do.'' The film, written, produced, and directed by Cristina Constantine, premiers on the National Geographic channel on June 16, and becomes available for streaming on Disney+ and Hulu on June 17. As it reveals, Sally and Tam made a lot of right—and tough—choices in the time they had together, and Ride did much the same when it came to the professional trajectory that took her to space. There is no minimizing just how alien the notion of female astronauts was at the start, at least in the U.S. The film includes a clip of Gordon Cooper, one of NASA's original seven astronauts, being interviewed in the early 1960s. 'Is there any room in the space program for a woman?' the reporter asked. 'Well,' Cooper answered without a trace of a smile, 'we could have used a woman and flown her instead of the chimpanzee.' It wasn't until 1976, a decade and a half after Alan Shepard became the first American in space, that NASA opened up its astronaut selection process to women and people of color. More than 8,000 hopefuls applied; in 1978, NASA selected 35 of them to become astronauts, including three Black people, one Asian American, and six women. Ride was among them, as was Judith Resnik, who would lose her life when the shuttle Challenger exploded at the start of its tenth mission in January 1986. There was a great deal of handicapping inside and outside of NASA as to which woman would fly first—much the way there was among the men in the run-up to Shepard's flight in 1961—and Ride and Resnik were considered the leading candidates. Ultimately, as Sally recounts, Ride was chosen because she struck NASA mission planners as slightly less distracted by the celebrity attending being number one, focusing more on the mission and less on the history she would make. 'She loved physics and she loved space exploration,' says O'Shaughnessey, 'and with those things she could be intense, driven.' Ride loved O'Shaughnessey too—though it was a devotion that was a long time in the making. The two met when Ride was 13 and O'Shaughnessey was 12 and they were standing in line to check in to play in a tennis tournament in Southern California, where they both grew up. Ride repeatedly rose restlessly to her tiptoes, and O'Shaughenessy said, ''You're walking on your toes like a ballet dancer,'' she recalls in the film. 'That kind of started our friendship. Sally was kind of quiet, but she would talk for eight minutes straight on different players and how to beat 'em, how to whup 'em.' The two grew quickly close, but went in different directions, with Ride studying physics at Swarthmore College in Pennsylvania for three semesters beginning in 1968 and later at UCLA for the summer semester before transferring to Stanford as a junior, and O'Shaughnessey becoming a professional tennis player from 1971 to 1974, ultimately playing in both the U.S. Open and Wimbledon. O'Shaughnessy accepted her sexuality early, openly, and enthusiastically. 'I was on the tennis circuit and there were a few queer women,' she told TIME. 'But it was also just the atmosphere, even the straight women. No one really cared who you slept with…I was going to the gay bars in San Francisco and dancing with my friends.' For Ride, things were different. When she was at Stanford she fell in love with her female roommate and the two were together for four years. But Ride insisted on keeping the relationship largely under wraps and that secrecy was a no-go for her partner. 'She couldn't stand being so closeted and decided to move on with her life,' says O'Shaughnessy. Ride would later choose an opposite sex partner, marrying fellow astronaut Steve Hawley in 1982, a move that was more than just an accommodating pose for a public figure in a country not ready for same-sex marriage, but less than a true union of the heart. 'They were really good friends,' O'Shaughnessy says. 'They had a lot in common. He was an astronomer, Sally was a physicist. They had stuff to talk about. They were both so thrilled to be selected to be astronauts and they both liked sports, so I think they had a solid friendship.' It wasn't enough. The two divorced in 1987, but even before they did, Ride and O'Shaughnessy began drifting together as more than just friends. At the time, O'Shaughnessy was living in Atlanta, after retiring from the tennis circuit; Ride, who was living in Houston, would visit her frequently. 'I never thought we would become romantic,' O'Shaughnessy says, 'but it just turned that way one afternoon in the spring of 1985. When she would come to town, we would typically go for runs and long walks and just spend time together. Back at my place one day, we were just talking. I had an old cocker spaniel named Annie, I leaned over to pet her, and the next thing I knew, Sally's hand was on my lower back. And it felt unusual. I turned to look at her and I could tell she was in love with me.' As O'Shaughnessy recalls in the film, she said, 'Oh boy, we're in trouble.' Ride responded, 'We don't have to be. We don't have to do this.' Then they kissed. Ride would ultimately fly twice in space, going aloft the second time in 1984, once again aboard the shuttle Challenger. After that snake-bit ship came to tragic ruin, exploding 73 seconds into its last flight and claiming the lives of all seven crewmembers, Ride and Neil Armstrong, the commander of Apollo 11 and the first man on the moon, served on the commission that investigated the causes of the accident. Ride left NASA in 1987, accepting a fellowship at Stanford and later became a professor of physics at the University of California, San Diego. In 1989, O'Shaughnessy moved out west to live with her. It would not be until 2013, a year after Ride's death, that California would permanently legalize gay marriage, and it would not be until 2015 that the Supreme Court would do the same nationwide. That was alright with Ride, who, as with her relationship with her college roommate, continued to believe that her love for O'Shaughnessy should remain a quiet and relatively private thing. But all that began to change in 2011. It was early that year that Ride first showed signs of illness—poor appetite and yellowing cheeks. Her doctor diagnosed pancreatic cancer. 'The doctor never said what stage. He never said the worst stage. We thought she was going to get better, and we were trying everything,' O'Shaughnessy recalls. 'She was doing acupuncture, we were meditating, we became vegans. And then one day, we're at the oncologist, and he said, 'It's time for hospice.' And Sally and I were, like, shocked.' Not long before Ride died, the couple grew concerned that O'Shaughnessy would not be allowed to visit her in the hospital, help make critical care decisions, or share property because they were not married—and could not be in California. So they went for the next best thing, registering as certified domestic partners, which afforded them the necessary rights. 'It's the worst phrase,' says O'Shaughnessy. 'We used to call each other certified domestic hens, because it's such a bad term.' Whatever name they went by, they would not get to enjoy their newly legalized status for long. Ride passed on July 23, 2012, just 17 months after she was diagnosed. At first NASA planned no formal memorial or celebration of Ride's life. Then, the next month, Armstrong died and a memorial was held at the Washington National Cathedral, with 1,500 people in attendance. 'I got mad,' O'Shaughnessy says. She called then-Senator Barbara Mikulski (D, Md.) who chaired the Senate Committee on Appropriations and oversaw NASA's budget. Mikulski called then-NASA Administrator Charlie Bolden, who at first offered up a relatively intimate affair for 300 people at the National Air and Space Museum. O'Shaughnessy pressed, and ultimately won approval for a far more prepossessing event at the Kennedy Center in 2013. Today, Ride's legacy lives on in Sally Ride Science, a nonprofit founded by Ride and O'Shaughnessy in 2001 to inspire girls to become scientifically literate and to draw girls and women into the STEM fields. It lives on too in astronaut Peggy Whitson, who now holds the U.S. record for most time spent in space, at 675 days over four missions. It lives on in Christina Koch, who will become the first woman to travel to the moon, when she flies aboard Artemis II on its circumlunar journey in 2026. It lives on in NASA's current 46-person astronaut corps, of whom 19 are women. Ride flew high, Ride flew fast, and Ride flew first—doing service to both science and human equity in the process. Sally powerfully tells her tale.
