Latest news with #TorinoImpactHazardScale
Yahoo
03-03-2025
- Science
- Yahoo
Why do the odds of asteroids hitting Earth keep fluctuating?
Recently the asteroid 2024 YR4, which is expected to pass Earth in 2032, was calculated to have a 1 in 83 chance of striking our planet. Then a week passed and suddenly there was a new headline: Asteroid 2024 YR4 was now believed to have only a 1 in 43 chance of striking our planet — the highest odds ever recorded for a space rock to hit our planet. Later the space rock fluctuated again, this time to a figuratively and literally astronomical 1 in 59,000 chance for impact. In short, asteroid 2024 YR4 went from breaking records for known threatening asteroids to being a near-zero threat. At some point in the near future, this risk may be out of date. The rock is 130 – 300 feet across (40 – 90 meters), meaning if such a collision were to occur, it would at the very least cause an airburst, shattering windows and infrastructure if it took place near a large city. The impact would be much less damaging if it occurred over the ocean, as asteroid 2024 YR4 is not large enough even at the outer range of projections to trigger a tsunami. Even so, most humans want absolute zero certainty rather than near-zero likelihood in their disaster forecasts. Reality does not instill the same confidence one sees in sci-fi depictions of scenarios in which near-Earth objects like asteroids and comets approach our planet. In 'Deep Impact' and 'Armageddon,' astronauts know for sure that our planet is in danger, how much time they have to solve the problem and how to use nuclear weapons to blow up those dangerous near-Earth objects before they wipe out all life as we know it. Yet according to Richard P. Binzel, a professor of astronomy and planetary science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology who invented the Torino Impact Hazard Scale for measuring these space rocks, we should not think in terms of conclusive eventualities and solutions on this issue. Binzel literally created the system scientists and ordinary people alike utilize to assess the threats posed by near-Earth objects on a scale of 0 (no threat) to 10 (will definitely hit Earth and destroy all life.) Because the sky is so vast and our knowledge of it is so limited that the scale is not capable of doing anything more than operating within probabilities. This way the Torino scale allows our species to honestly know what we are dealing with, on a mathematical level, as we become aware of the increasing number of variables pertaining to a given asteroid or comet. We will need any information we can get. Should our species in our lifetimes ever be so unlucky as to actually face a potentially apocalyptic near-Earth object, Binzel noted that the elegant solutions depicted in cinema are far, far from what we would really have at our disposal. This interview has been edited for clarity and length. How did you develop the Torino Scale? Once upon a time, if you go back to the beginning, it would be Eugene Shoemaker, who was studying craters. He was going to be an Apollo astronaut but got washed out [Shoemarker developed Addison's disease, an endocrine disorder], so he studied craters. He's the geologist that determined that the meteor crater in Arizona was a crater by finding minerals underneath the bottom of the crater which could only have been formed by a high-heat, high-intensity shockwave, which is an impact crater. And so Shoemaker began wanting to know what was making craters on the Earth, on the Moon. He transformed himself from a geologist to an astronomer and began searching for these objects in the 1970s. I actually worked as a summer intern for Shoemaker in 1980. I began focusing on, or at least being aware of, working in the field of near-Earth objects as far back as 1980. As we were discovering these objects and surveys that Shoemaker was doing, and then others came along, we would get to the point where we would discover an object that had a non-zero probability of striking the earth. Could be one in 20,000, one in 60,000, just a number that was really small, but not zero. And so astronomers were perplexed: What do we do with these? Do we keep these objects secret until we get enough data and can make it go away, and then we don't have to upset anyone?The problem with that is twofold. One is, the data, the observations are always public, and so anyone who couldn't read the listing of asteroid observations could do these kinds of orbit solutions themselves and declare it to the public. Secondly, the sky is free and open to everyone, so it doesn't seem right to ever not tell you to be public about what you find in the sky. As we were getting to the point of finding objects that could pose a threat to Earth, or at least for which we could not rule out some small chance of striking Earth on a distant date, we had no set way of communicating. It would be a little bit of a tower of Babel, with different astronomers saying different things. Not that the numbers were different, but they would express themselves in different ways, and that could be very confusing to the public. This was the motivation for finding a common communication system, a common scale that we could put into context any newly discovered object. And so this now goes back to 1995 when a guy named John L. Remo brought together a conference at the United Nations for people to discuss the discovery and calculation of orbits of asteroids coming near the Earth. And that's where I presented the first concept of a common language or common scale. I called it a hazard index. That first presentation in 1995, it was a zero-to-five scale, and it generated a lot of discussion, but not a lot of enthusiasm. So I carried the proposal forward, took a lot of input from my colleagues, from science journalists, in terms of what could we do that would make a communication system better. From that I revised the proposal to a 10 point scale, added some broad characterizations for the different categories of what merits attention by astronomers, what would be an actual threat, and then what would classify as a certain collision. That's the lower limit of categorizing objects on the Torino Scale. So a small object that's discovered that's going to disintegrate in the atmosphere, or maybe land a few pieces on the ground, is zero on the Torino Scale, even if we're certain it's going to hit. So where's the bottom limit? And then at what probability does something become interesting? For example, on average in any given year, an object the size of 2024 YR4 has perhaps a one-in-a-thousand chance of striking the Earth or taking us by surprise. That's the level at which it would become a one on the Torino Scale: If we discover an object and it has a probability higher than just sort of the average background of being taken by surprise in any given year. Anything under four [on the scale], I wouldn't worry about. What do you think of the various scientific theories about how we could deflect or otherwise protect ourselves from near-Earth objects? Which ones do you think are viable and which do you think are more fanciful? The most important thing about near-Earth objects is to find them early. The earlier you have, or the more years or more decades you have to find an object, the more options you have such as a deflection, which is easiest to do. The more years you have, the tinier the nudge you need to make sure the objects will miss the Earth. At the moment, that's the capability we have, or the capability we've tested is a deflection technique, to nudge an asteroid slightly off course. That's why these new surveys are actually important because the sooner we start completing the inventory of what's out there, the more time we'll have, in case there's some object out there with our name on it. Do you believe that, aside from the near-Earth objects that have made the news, there are other bodies out there we should be concerned about? There are thousands and thousands of objects like 2024 YR4 and smaller that are out there. We simply need to do a thorough job of cataloging them as the first step towards making sure that we are never taken by surprise, by any sizable object.
Bloomberg
28-02-2025
- Science
- Bloomberg
Can the World Relax About Killer Asteroids Now?
For a brief window, Asteroid 2024 YR4 looked like a planetary hazard in the making. At up to 90 meters (295 feet) in diameter, it was described as a potential 'city killer.' On its estimated trajectory, it could've collided with Earth as soon as 2032. According to the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, used to characterize such threats, it ranked a Level 3 out of 10 — a highly unusual designation, suggesting a 'close encounter' was plausible. Panic is no longer in order: The National Aeronautics and Space Administration has just reduced the odds of impact to 0.0017%, down from a high of 3.1%. But the uncomfortably uncertain path of this asteroid — discovered only in late December — offered a timely reminder of how vulnerable humanity remains to hidden perils whirling through space, and how much still needs to be done to protect the planet.
Yahoo
25-02-2025
- Science
- Yahoo
Worried about asteroids? This is the scale NASA uses to gauge how much danger they pose.
NASA raised eyebrows earlier this month when it announced that astronomers were tracking a massive asteroid that poses a small, but troubling, chance of striking Earth in the coming years. The space agency's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies reported that an object between 130 and 300 feet across, which had been labeled 2024 YR4, was moving along a path that gave it as high as a 3% chance of colliding with our planet on Dec. 22, 2032. An asteroid of that size isn't big enough to threaten life on Earth, like the 6-mile-wide asteroid that killed the dinosaurs, but its impact would be enough to cause millions of deaths if it struck a major city. Thankfully, further observations have led NASA's team to reduce the odds that 2024 YR4 will hit Earth down to 0.004% as of Sunday, low enough that it's considered to have 'no significant potential' to crash into our planet. Our planet is constantly being bombarded. It's estimated that roughly 100,000 pounds of space rock falls on Earth every day. Nearly all of that gets burned up in the atmosphere. Objects big enough to pose any actual risk to humans, let alone cause any major damage, are very rare. For more than 20 years, the Center for Near-Earth Object Studies has monitored outer space for asteroids that could intersect with Earth's orbit and are large enough to cause significant destruction if they do. They then use those two factors — likelihood of a collision and the potential devastation that would result — to rank an asteroid on a 0-10 scale that ranges from no threat at all to all-but-guaranteed to end life on Earth as we know it if humans don't somehow intervene. The Torino Impact Hazard Scale, named after the Italian city where it was first presented to the space-monitoring community in 1999, categorizes asteroids by both number and color. At its peak, 2024 YR4 reached a level 3 on the scale. That's in the yellow zone of objects that merit attention from astronomers but have a high likelihood of being reduced to level 0 upon further observation — which is exactly what happened in this case. Asteroids in the yellow zone can be big enough to create substantial destruction, enough to devastate a city or even a whole region of the world, but their odds of colliding with Earth are so low that there's no major reason for concern. Things get scarier in the orange zone, where the likelihood of impact is significantly greater, though not yet guaranteed. Asteroids in the orange zone are also large enough to cause 'regional devastation' or even 'global catastrophe.' At this level of threat, astronomers advise governments and scientists to enact contingency plans for how to prevent the object from colliding with Earth. The red zone is reserved for the greatest threats — massive asteroids that are definitely going to strike the planet. The levels within the red zone are based on the size of the object. Level 8 is big enough to destroy a city. Level 9 could devastate an entire region. Level 10 could 'threaten the future of civilization as we know it.' While asteroids at every level — including level 10 — have hit the Earth in the billions of years since it was formed, those events are extraordinarily rare. Asteroid 2024 YR4 is noteworthy because it's uncommon for any object to rise to level 3. In fact, no incoming asteroid has ever been rated above level 4 since the Torino scale was developed. NASA keeps a list of 33 potential future Earth impact events that could occur over the next 100-plus years. All of them are currently at level 0. Still, NASA isn't content to sit back and hope our luck doesn't run out. In 2022, the agency successfully changed the orbit of an asteroid for the first time by slamming a spacecraft into it at high speed. The test, which altered the asteroid's path far more than initially hoped, was a major breakthrough in the rapidly advancing scientific field of planetary defense. 'All of us have a responsibility to protect our home planet,' NASA Administrator Bill Nelson said at the time. 'After all, it's the only one we have.'
Al Arabiya
25-02-2025
- Science
- Al Arabiya
Chance huge asteroid will hit Earth down to 0.001 percent
The chance that a football field-sized asteroid capable of destroying a city will strike Earth in 2032 has fallen to 0.001 percent, the European Space Agency said on Tuesday. A week ago, the asteroid set a new record for having the highest probability of hitting Earth -- 3.1 percent according to NASA and 2.8 percent according to the ESA. The planetary defense community has been scanning the skies. However, as had been widely expected, fresh observations from telescopes around the world narrowed the area of uncertainty where the asteroid could strike, increasingly ruling out the odds of a direct hit. The ESA said the chance was now down to 0.001 percent, adding that the threat level on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale was now at zero -- after hitting level three out of a possible 10 last week. The asteroid, called 2024 YR4, was discovered in December. It is estimated to be 40-90 meters (130 to 300 feet) wide, which means it has the potential to devastate a city. The impact date would have been December 22, 2032 -- but it is now extremely likely the asteroid will simply zoom past Earth. Despite the plummeting risk, the James Webb Space Telescope will still observe the asteroid in the coming months, the ESA said. Scientists had emphasized that even if the asteroid had been heading our way, Earth is now capable of fighting back. In the first test of our planetary defenses, NASA's DART mission successfully altered a harmless asteroid's trajectory in 2022 by smashing a spacecraft into it. Richard Moissl, head of the ESA's planetary defense office, told AFP that observing the asteroid -- then ruling out a direct hit -- was 'a very exciting and educational exercise.' Praising the early detection of the asteroid, he emphasized that 'there is still ample room for improvement.' Several new telescopes, such as the Vera Rubin and Flyeye, which are near becoming operational will enable astronomers to spot asteroids more quickly, Moissl said. So will Europe's planned early warning mission NEOMIR, he added. The last time an asteroid bigger than 30 meters wide posed such a significant risk was Apophis in 2004, when it briefly had a 2.7 percent chance of striking EartFh in 2029 -- a possibility also ruled out through additional observations.
Yahoo
25-02-2025
- Science
- Yahoo
Chance huge asteroid will hit Earth down to 0.001 percent
The chance that a football field-sized asteroid capable of destroying a city will strike Earth in 2032 has fallen to 0.001 percent, the European Space Agency said on Tuesday. A week ago, the asteroid set a new record for having the highest probability of hitting Earth -- 3.1 percent according to NASA and 2.8 percent according to the ESA. The planetary defence community has been scanning the skies. However, as had been widely expected, fresh observations from telescopes around the world narrowed the area of uncertainty where the asteroid could strike, increasingly ruling out the odds of a direct hit. The ESA said the chance was now down to 0.001 percent, adding that the threat level on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale was now at zero -- after hitting level three out of a possible 10 last week. The asteroid, called 2024 YR4, was discovered in December. It is estimated to be 40-90 metres (130 to 300 feet) wide, which means it has the potential to devastate a city. The impact date would have been December 22, 2032 -- but it is now extremely likely the asteroid will simply zoom past Earth. Despite the plummeting risk, the James Webb Space Telescope will still observe the asteroid in the coming months, the ESA said. Scientists had emphasised that even if the asteroid had been heading our way, Earth is now capable of fighting back. In the first test of our planetary defences, NASA's DART mission successfully altered a harmless asteroid's trajectory in 2022 by smashing a spacecraft into it. Richard Moissl, head of the ESA's planetary defence office, told AFP that observing the asteroid -- then ruling out a direct hit -- was "a very exciting and educational exercise". Praising the early detection of the asteroid, he emphasised that "there is still ample room for improvement". Several new telescopes, such as the Vera Rubin and Flyeye, which are near becoming operational will enable astronomers to spot asteroids more quickly, Moissl said. So will Europe's planned early warning mission NEOMIR, he added. The last time an asteroid bigger than 30 metres wide posed such a significant risk was Apophis in 2004, when it briefly had a 2.7 percent chance of striking Earth in 2029 -- a possibility also ruled out through additional observations. dl/tw
