Potential asteroid impact on Moon in 2032 could trigger massive meteor shower on Earth
While the chances of the newly discovered asteroid 2024 YR4 hitting the Moon in seven years are slim – there is currently a 96% chance it won't happen – an impact of this size would not come without consequences for the Moon, astronauts and spacecraft orbiting Earth.
A new study submitted for review by scientists with the University of Western Ontario and Athabasca University in Canada took observations from the James Webb Space Telescope of asteroid 2024 YR4 and used simulations to show how much lunar debris would be ejected out into space, sending pieces of the Moon toward Earth.
Odds Of Asteroid 2024 Yr4 Hitting The Moon Go Up Again
After its initial discovery late last year, the asteroid appeared to have a small chance of impacting Earth, warranting international attention, and jumping to the highest asteroid threat ever given on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale. By February, more ground-based observations of the asteroid helped clear the threat to Earth, but the Moon still faces a possible impact.
Earlier this year, NASA's James Webb Space Telescope helped scientists determine that the asteroid is between 175 and 220 feet in diameter.
If Asteroid 2024 YR4 crashes into the Moon, it would create a crater more than half a mile in diameter (1 km), becoming the largest impact in about 5,000 years, according to the study. Current calculations show, if it happens, an impact would occur on the Southern Hemisphere.
The researchers said this impact would threaten satellites in low-Earth orbit for days or up to a few months, and send a fraction of the ejecta toward Earth.
Any lunar debris that makes it within Earth's atmosphere could create a meteor shower event over the planet.
"The resulting meteor shower could last a few days and be spectacular, though the number of visible meteors somewhat muted by the low entry speed of ejecta," the research team said.
With more than 10,000 active satellites in low-Earth orbit and more than 25,000 pieces of space junk, researchers believe an asteroid strike to the Moon could spell trouble for satellite operators.
"Given the very large total exposed area for satellites by 2032, it becomes possible that hundreds to thousands of impacts from mm-sized debris ejected by a lunar impact from 2024 YR4 will be experienced across the entire satellite fleet," the study authors wrote. "Such impacts may damage satellites, but are small enough to generally not end active missions or cause breakups."
The researchers say material from the Moon could be a "serious hazard to moon-orbiting spacecraft" such as NASA's Lunar Gateway, a planned orbiting station for astronauts, and an "even greater danger" to any lunar surface operations.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 has moved behind the Sun, limiting any new observations until 2028. Scientists say those new observations in a few years will help improve lunar impact predictions.Original article source: Potential asteroid impact on Moon in 2032 could trigger massive meteor shower on Earth
Solve the daily Crossword
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Yahoo
2 hours ago
- Yahoo
NASA, Space-X scrub crew-11 launch due to weather
NASA and SpaceX canceled today's planned launch of the Crew-11 mission to the International Space Station due to cloud cover at the Kennedy Space Center launch site. They are now targeting 11:43 a.m. EDT on Friday, August 1, for liftoff of the SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket and Dragon spacecraft from Launch Complex 39A. The forecast currently shows a 75% chance of favorable weather at the launch site, though conditions along the Crew Dragon Endeavour flight path remain under review. NASA astronauts Zena Cardman and Mike Fincke, JAXA astronaut Kimiya Yui, and Roscosmos cosmonaut Oleg Platonov safely exited the spacecraft after the scrub. They returned to crew quarters to await their next launch attempt. Docking with the International Space Station is now targeted for approximately 3 a.m. EDT on Saturday, August 2. Click here to download our free news, weather and smart TV apps. And click here to stream Channel 9 Eyewitness News live. Solve the daily Crossword
Yahoo
2 hours ago
- Yahoo
NASA scrubs SpaceX launch amid ‘unfavorable' weather
(NEXSTAR) – A crewed mission on SpaceX's Dragon spacecraft was postponed due to 'an unfavorable weather forecast,' according to NASA. The launch was originally scheduled for 12:09 p.m. ET on Thursday. It has instead been rescheduled for Friday at 11:43 a.m. ET. 'Standing down from today's Falcon 9 launch of Dragon due to cloud cover at the launch site,' a representative for SpaceX explained on X. Largest digital camera ever built takes first shots of universe The crew of the mission — Zena Cardman and Mike Fincke of NASA, Kimiya Yui of Japan's Aerospace Exploration Agency, and Oleg Platonov of Russia's Roscosmos space program — are planning to arrive at the International Space Station this week to further study and experiment with methods to maintain the health of astronauts on future missions, including a possible expedition to Mars, according to NASA. 'Other science Crew-11 members will conduct on the space station include studying stem cell production methods to develop advanced cures, new ways to treat bacterial infections, and space agriculture techniques,' NASA says. On Thursday morning, the crew readied for their mission with a 'long-held spaceflight tradition,' according to NASA: a card game. 'The astronauts are not anything if they're not superstitious, so this is one of those traditions,' a representative for NASA says in a video of this morning's card game. 'The game changes every mission, it's really up to the chief of the office to figure out what that game is going to be. But the goal is the same: You go until the commander wins, and you have shaken off all of the bad luck, if you will.' Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed. Solve the daily Crossword
Yahoo
3 hours ago
- Yahoo
JWST sees beauty in the death of a star, offers a preview of what's in store for our sun
When you buy through links on our articles, Future and its syndication partners may earn a commission. This splash of paint on the canvas of space is the planetary nebula NGC 6072, the dying embers of a ruined star that has reached the end of its sun-like life. Cocooned inside the nebula, within its own ejected outer layers, the fading star is undergoing a transformation into a white dwarf. As the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) shows in these two images, one taken in shorter-wavelength, near-infrared light and the other at mid-infrared wavelengths, the shape of the nebula is surprisingly complex— suggesting there's more going on than meets the eye. NGC 6072 is found in the constellation of Scorpius, the Scorpion, at a distance measured by the Gaia mission as being 3,060 light-years away. Gaia's previous observations strongly suggest there is not just one star at the heart of NGC 6072, but two. This is now backed up by what the JWST has seen in its two new views of the nebula. A tale of two stars Some tens of thousands of years ago, the nuclear furnace at the core of the more massive of a pair of stars began stuttering. As the outward pressure of radiation from the fusion reactions in the star's core began to drop off, the outer layers began to contract, heat up and ignite their own fusion reactions, providing the energy for them to eject themselves from the star, forming the nebula. The white dwarf is the star's exposed and extremely hot (but inert) core. Many planetary nebulas appear cylindrical, bi-polar, or round, but NGC 6072 is different. It's like a misshapen splodge of color on the sky. The view seen by the JWST's Near-Infrared Camera (NIRCam) reveals multiple pairs of outflows coming from the dying star and pointing in various directions. One outflow is visible from the 11 o'clock to the 5 o'clock position. Another can be seen from 1 o'clock to 7 o'clock, and there's a possible third outflow that appears vertical in the image, from 12 o'clock to 6 o'clock. It is thought that the changing direction of these outflows is a result of gravitational interactions between the dying central star and its companion star. The various colors (these are false colors because they have to represent infrared light that we cannot see with our eyes) also inform us about the nebula's properties. By this point, the central star has shed up to 80% of its total mass, and we see this in the clumps of gas and dust painted dark orange in the image. Relatively empty, dust-free regions appear blue. The clumpiness could be caused by denser patches of molecular hydrogen gas being shielded from the white dwarf's harsh ultraviolet light by veils of thick dust. Meanwhile, the exposed gas around these clumps (closer to the heart of the nebula) is being ionized by the ultraviolet light. Extending into longer wavelengths, the JWST's Mid-Infrared Instrument (MIRI) captures a series of concentric rings radiating out from the center of the nebula. These rings could be more evidence for a second star. As that second star orbits the dying star, it cuts through the material being ejected, carving gaps that propagate outwards as the ejected material moves away. However, an alternative explanation for the rings could be a series of pulsations within the dying star that take place every few thousand years. Thanks to MIRI's ability to see light that isn't absorbed by dust, it opens a window into the heart of the nebula where we can see the central star system as a pinkish-white dot. However, if there is a companion star, it is so close to the dying star that not even the JWST can resolve the two as separate objects. Whatever the case, the JWST's images emphasize just how beautiful and unusual the deaths of stars can be, and foretell the future of our own sun in about five billion years' time.
