New University of Galway study finds that proposed Irish climate targets risk locking in global hunger

Irish Independent

4 days ago

'The transition to a sustainable and equitable food system is being undermined by a new approach to climate target setting by livestock exporting countries such as Ireland and New Zealand,' an international study by climate scientists has warned.
The study was led by University of Galway in partnership with the University of Melbourne, University College Cork, and Climate Resource, and has been published in the journal 'Environmental Research Letters'.
The scientists have called out the new 'temperature neutrality', also known as "no additional warming", which allows Ireland to maintain a high share of global agricultural methane emissions while claiming to meet its climate targets.
The study explains that temperature neutrality is a concept based on stabilising a country's contribution to global warming, rather than aiming for the more ambitious, established target of net zero greenhouse gas emissions.
Basically, temperature neutrality necessitates modest reductions in methane emissions from high-emitting countries, denying methane emission 'rights' to countries with low methane emissions.
The study looks deeply into how methane emissions are strongly linked with agricultural production, with temperature neutrality meaning that inequalities in the global food system would be locked-in, by reducing the need to curtail or offset methane emissions in current livestock exporting countries such as Ireland.
According to the study, temperature neutrality approach dramatically reduces the level of ambition needed for overall greenhouse gas emission reduction.
The resulting targets have been proposed to the Irish Government by the Climate Change Advisory Council, in part to reduce potential disruption from Ireland's legal commitment to achieve national climate neutrality by 2050.
According to the study, temperature neutrality severely restricts the development space for agriculture in low-income, food-insecure countries where livestock products are most needed to improve nutrition.
Looking even further, the new University of Galway study shows that the temperature neutrality approach underestimates the level of emissions offsetting required in livestock exporting countries.
This delays the development of new markets for farmers in those countries to deliver solutions to the climate and biodiversity crises.
Lead scientist, Dr Colm Duffy, Honorary Lecturer in Agri-Sustainability, School of Biological and Chemical Sciences and Ryan Institute, University of Galway, said: 'If every country adopted a temperature neutrality target, we'd seriously jeopardise the Paris Agreement's goal of limiting warming to 1.5C, or even 2C.
'Worse still, this approach doesn't just weaken climate ambition, it entrenches inequality. It protects the status quo for wealthy countries while placing an unfair burden on poorer, food-insecure countries, limiting their ability to grow their own food systems.'
The international research team ran a number of scenarios to assess the impact of the policy on global mean temperatures.
The policy, which has also been proposed in New Zealand, performed the worst in terms of global warming emissions.
By 2050, Ireland's per capita methane emissions would remain almost six times the global average.
'The science shows that the new policy essentially grandfathers methane emissions - meaning a country's future share of warming is based not on equity or ambition, but on historical share of emissions,' Dr Duffy added. 'In essence; 'I had more, so I get more'.'
Dr Róisín Moriarty, Research Fellow at the Sustainability Institute at UCC, said: "A 'no additional warming' approach to target setting amounts to backsliding on a country's commitment to the Paris Agreement and is not a reflection of 'highest possible ambition'.
'With less than three years of global carbon budget remaining to limit warming to 1.5C, with a 50 per cent chance of achieving it, countries around the world need to do as much as they possibly can to achieve the rapid, deep and sustained reductions in greenhouse gas emissions needed to keep within the 1.5C temperature goal."
Professor Hannah Daly, Professor in Sustainable Energy at UCC, said: "Methane emissions are responsible for around 40 per cent of global warming to date – methane's short lifetime in the atmosphere means that cutting its emissions is an essential lever to limit global warming to safe levels.
'For a country like Ireland, with outsized methane emissions, to base our long-term climate target on simply stabilising warming is inadequate to meet our global obligations and sets a dangerous precedent.'
David Styles, Associate Professor in Agri-Sustainability, School of Biological and Chemical Sciences and Ryan Institute, University of Galway, said: 'Ireland's agricultural sector has huge potential to contribute towards a future climate neutral and biodiverse economy, but this requires big changes over time. Establishing a robust and internationally defendable climate target is vital to plan for a just transition, not just internationally, but for Ireland's farmers. Temperature neutrality falls short.'
Dr Duffy is a Research Fellow on the FORESIGHT project and Honorary Lecturer in the School of Biological and Chemical Sciences at University of Galway. He was one of a number of signatories to an open letter that criticises a similar policy proposal in New Zealand.
The research was supported by funding from the Department of Climate Energy and the Environment for the FORESIGHT and CAPACITY climate modelling teams.