Pacers-Thunder Game 7 means predictions and all-time NBA Finals rankings
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Maybe you haven't been interested in the Pacers-Thunder NBA Finals. It's possible the markets, stars or stories aren't interesting to you. If you're a big enough basketball fan to subscribe to this newsletter, I implore you to watch Game 7 on Sunday. It's been a phenomenal series, and a fantastic finish is on the way.
NBA Finals glory almost a decade in the making
Tyrese Haliburton had a bad wheel due to his calf strain. The Thunder smelled blood in the water. And the Pacers were still licking their wounds from blowing a chance to go up 3-1 at home in Game 4, when they allowed the Thunder to give them a taste of their own medicine – dominating fourth quarters for a big comeback. So, it's not a shock that so many people assumed the Thunder would go into Indianapolis last night and make that visiting locker room stink of champagne and stain the hardwood floor on the court with Pacers regret.
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When the Pacers started the game 0-of-8 from the field, it looked like it might be an early wrap, but they settled themselves and started making shots. And then, after a poor close to the first quarter, they went on a monster 30-9 run in the last 8:51 of the second quarter to give themselves a 22-point lead at halftime. It took the Thunder until the 5:03 mark in the third quarter to score their first basket. It was a 30-point lead entering the final period, so Indiana knew it had one more game to play. It's hard to win an NBA title! Who knew?!
The Thunder turned the ball over an inordinate amount of times, racking up 21 turnovers to the Pacers' 11 and allowing 19 points off those turnovers to the Pacers' 13. Before the Thunder waved the Ajay Mitchell flag, Indiana's bench was outscoring OKC's 31-6. And the Pacers used timely traps and double teams to force eight turnovers by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
The Thunder laid an egg so big that it could have filled up every buffet chafing dish in Las Vegas. After the game, SGA mentioned the thought of the opportunity to clinch the first title was in the back of his mind, and he thought he could draw on the experience of not wanting to lose Game 7 against Denver in the second round to persevere on Sunday. On NBA TV, Hall of Famer Isiah Thomas said losing in the second round and losing a Game 7 (1988 NBA Finals against the Lakers) are not even close to the same thing.
Perhaps the youth of the Thunder still comes through at certain times, but it's not like the Pacers have much championship experience outside of Pascal Siakam.
T.J. McConnell dominated the Thunder for the second straight game. Adding 12 points, nine rebounds, six assists and four steals in 24 minutes off the bench might now sound like domination, but he completely controlled the game when he was in. And now, both teams have their backs against the walls in the tiniest octagon in sports: Game 7.
Game 7 is on Sunday at 8 p.m. ET on ABC (or try FUBO for free!). You can also watch the Pregame Live Show on the NBA App and all of their socials (including YouTube page) with myself, Mo Dakhil, Alexis Morgan and Atlanta Hawk Georges Niang from 6:30-7:30 p.m. ET for a pregame show that doesn't just have a bunch of shouting, incongruent statements!
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🎧 Tuning in. Today's 'NBA Daily' discusses Pascal Siakam's bizarre pre-game ritual with Shakeia Taylor.
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Can we predict how Game 7 will go?
We haven't had a Game 7 in the NBA Finals since 2016, when the Cavaliers went into Oracle Arena and shocked the world by taking down the 73-win Warriors to complete the first 3-1 series comeback in NBA Finals history. The Pacers going into the Paycom Center in OKC on Sunday to face the Thunder will mark the 20th Game 7 in NBA Finals history. The Thunder are 8.5-point favorites in the game and -375 to win the game outright, courtesy of BetMGM.
That makes some sense, considering home teams typically win these matchups. Here are some stats from NBA Finals Game 7s to consider:
Most of these NBA Finals Game 7s have not happened in the modern era (post-NBA/ABA merger in 1976). Eight of the 19 matchups have happened since the merger, and Sunday will be the fifth one in the last 20 years. These are simply rare, to say the least. Here are the four teams that did the unfathomable and won on the road:
Game 7s are so rare in the modern era that Draymond Green is tied with Shane Battier for the most 3-pointers made in an NBA Finals Game 7 with six. That sounds like I could have made up that statistic, but it's true! Green had a massive Game 7 with 32 points, 15 rebounds and nine assists in the losing effort in 2016.
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As you pore over this Game 7 data, there is no rhyme or reason for the road team winning. It just feels random, which is also how the Pacers being in this position feels to a lot of people. Maybe they'll pull it off, or maybe the Thunder will push them around like they did Denver in Game 7 of the second round.
How is this NBA Finals shaping up?
In the intro, I implored people to drop what they're doing on Sunday and tap into Game 7. I truly believe this has been one of the better NBA Finals we've had in recent memory. The tricky thing about watching and loving so many of these is nostalgia will always creep in.
People still pine for the days of the defense of the 1980s and 1990s, but you'll watch some old film, and, aside from the physicality that was allowed, you won't see a ton of good defense being played. Eras and memories are funny that way. Physicality does not equal defense.
In terms of the modern finals, I do think it's worth wondering what a dynamic, close, clutch Game 7 in this series could mean for where it ranks in the last 20-25 years. We've had great performances, close games and drama. So, let's try to put into context where this could slot in.
First of all, let's eliminate all sweeps and five-game series. No offense to those winners and participants, but we're only looking at six- and seven-game series here.
Obviously, seven-game finishes will take precedence over six-gamers here. Regardless of how Game 7 shakes out, if we're getting a down to the final minutes game with either team winning and we're not talking buzzer-beater, I feel pretty confident in this order for me:
10. Heat 4-2 over Mavericks (2006): Dallas fans got their revenge in 2011, and they're still not over the Dwyane Wade free-throw volume from this series. (And Dallas was up 2-0 in this series!)
9. Bucks 4-2 over Suns (2021): Don't underrate this series. Phoenix went up 2-0, then Milwaukee ran off four straight with Giannis Antetokounmpo (50 points, 14 rebounds) putting up arguably the greatest closeout performance ever in Game 6.
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8. Spurs 4-3 over Pistons (2005): There were two and a half close games in this series, and the first four were unwatchable. It went seven, though.
7. Celtics 4-2 over Lakers (2008): Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen came through over Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol, all on their first journeys together.
6. Warriors 4-2 over Cavaliers (2015): Kind of marred by the Cavs injuries, but still very fun.
5. Thunder 3-3 v. Pacers (2025): Is this too high? Is that crazy? Are you just dismissive because of the two markets? (This ranking go up or down based on Sunday's result.)
4. Mavericks 4-2 over Heat (2011): Dirk Nowitzki and the Mavs absolutely embarrassed the Heatles.
3. Lakers 4-3 over Celtics (2010): It was an ugly but dramatic ending. This series had it all, plus the two storied franchises.
2. Heat 4-3 over Spurs (2013): The Ray Allen shot that saved the Heat, plus an epic Tim Duncan and LeBron James duel in Game 7.
1. Cavaliers 4-3 over Warriors (2016): The historical significance of the blown 3-1 lead has to make it the top one.
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( Photo: Trevor Ruszkowski / USA Today Network via Imagn Images )
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