How to watch Memphis vs. Colorado State: Odds, storylines for men's NCAA Tournament matchup

New York Times

21-03-2025

Memphis racked up 29 wins and the AAC tournament title to earn a No. 5 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Colorado State also made a run through the Mountain West tournament to book its place in the Big Dance. Colorado State is actually favored despite being a No. 12 seed.
We've got a breakdown of the strengths and weaknesses on both sides of the matchup, plus odds and viewing info. Our game previews are a collaborative effort between The Athletic staff, The Field of 68 and Brad Evans' The Gaming Juice.
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Strengths: You may be surprised to hear this, but Memphis has one of the best backcourts in all of college basketball. It starts with PJ Haggerty, a big-time scorer who is one of the top guards in the country at getting to the foul line. He gives the Tigers their high floor, while Tyrese Hunter and Colby Rogers give them their ceiling. Both Hunter and Rogers are capable of going for 25 points, and the trio is why Memphis is one of the nation's most dangerous 3-point shooting teams at nearly 39 percent accuracy. There is a reason to be worried here. Hunter injured his foot in the semifinals of the AAC tournament and did not play in the final. His status for the tournament is in jeopardy. The flip side is the space that gets created in the paint by the threat beyond the arc has allowed Dain Dainja to develop into one of the better frontcourt weapons. A refrigerator with ballerina feet, Dainja has a soft touch around the basket, and his post moves have created an entirely different way for the Tigers to win games.
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Weaknesses: One of the trends in college basketball is for teams to focus on dominating in three key areas: shooting the 3, forcing turnovers and winning the rebounding battle. In short, the theory is that doing so maximizes the number of offensive possessions available and the expected points per shot on those possessions. Memphis is an elite 3-point shooting team, but it ranks outside the top 275 in turnover rate and the defensive rebounding percentage. If the Tigers run into a team that can pressure and get to the offensive glass, they will be in trouble.
Outlook: The NCAA Tournament is based on matchups, draws and, frankly, a little bit of luck. If you are a No. 3 seed in a region where the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds get upset in the first weekend, you're lucky. If you end up in a region with a bunch of teams you match up well against, you have a better chance of making a deep run than someone who doesn't. Memphis is a team that, on paper, looks to be matchup-dependent. Texas A&M, St. John's, Houston and teams of that ilk can give the Tigers some problems. At the same time, they have three players on the perimeter who are capable of winning a game all on their own. Wins over Missouri, UConn, Michigan State, Clemson and Ole Miss weren't flukes. A Final Four is a big ask, but Memphis certainly can make some noise and get to a second weekend.
—Rob Dauster
Strengths: On offense, the Rams lower their heads, charge hard and send opponents flying. Hotter than a sunbaked blacktop in mid-July, they finished the last month of the regular season No. 7 nationally in effective field goal percentage offense, shooting 53.1 percent on 2-pointers and an absolutely bananas 43.0 percent on 3s. Clifford is the straw who stirs the drink. Blessed with an all-around scoring skill set, he racked 25-point performances regularly. Colorado State is a strong pick-and-pop squad with Jalen Lake, Kyan Evans and Jaylen Crocker-Johnson routinely inflicting damage, and it has a tremendous rebounder in Rashaan Mbemba. He and Clifford are major reasons why CSU ranks top-20 in defensive rebounding percentage over the entire season.
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Weaknesses: Defense isn't one of State's signature characteristics. In its last 10 regular-season games, it checked in at a terribly bland No. 181 in effective field goal percentage defense. Most alarmingly, it ranked outside the top 220 in 3-point percentage D, surrendering close to 36 percent. Also, the Rams are often too sloppy. Over their final 10 games before the postseason, they coughed up the rock on nearly 18 percent of their possessions. Playing composed must live at the top of their priority checklist.
Outlook: For teams firmly sitting on the bubble, Colorado State's automatic berth triggered tears. An 11th-hour entrant, the Rams shouldn't be taken lightly. Clifford is a pro — a top NBA prospect who is projected to be drafted in the first round. His shot creation, versatility and finishing talents are unquestionably spectacular. Overall, with a penchant for 3-point bombardments and glass waxings, CSU could be a Sweet 16 sleeper. Party on, Fort Collins.
—Brad Evans
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(Photo credit: David Becker / Getty Images)