How Europe can lead in the age of Trump
First, take climate change. Trump's impact on climate change itself can only be negative. Nevertheless, his reversal of the US move away from fossils opens an opportunity for Europe and Asia. Necessity is the mother of invention, and by sticking with fossil fuels, Trump is removing the need for the US to adapt. Now is the chance for Europe and Asia to make the innovations that are needed if the world is to survive.
Second, take the uncertainty for business investment that a Trump presidency creates. Who will be holding his hand as he signs yet more executive orders – the traditional MAGA crowd, or the techies? No-one knows. It may well flip from one to the other and back.
Then add in boom and bust. Business will hate this uncertainty. Thus the more stable Europe can seem, the more attractive it becomes. This will be difficult for the EU right now, given the uncertain political climate in France and Germany, but it could be a good moment for the UK.
Third, consider the position of skilled labour and, most especially, high-end, talented immigrants. Just think of the many clever people in Silicon valley and the top US universities who now fear for their future. European universities and European high-tech firms are in a perfect position to gain from this – provided they have the sense to be welcoming.
Think finally about where Europe's comparative advantage lies. The language in Brussels currently emphasises the need for Europe to be 'more competitive'. Translated, this means more deregulation. But, in many areas this will be exactly the wrong move. The question to ask is 'Why does the regulation exist?' If it is for a good purpose you want to promote it – indeed to sell it – not abandon it.
For example, no-one wants their kids harassed with pornographic images, or their social media flooded with hate speech. We regulate against these practices for good reason. Similarly, the evidence of the damage to our health was there for cigarettes and will soon be there for ultra-processed foods. In other words, Europe should emphasise why standards matter to everyone. Well-chosen standards, not our lack of competitiveness, have the scope to be our comparative advantage.
Trump's erratic door slamming opens many opportunities. Europe needs to get on the front foot and take them.
Dr Andrew Graham is Chair of the Trustees of the Europaeum, and former Master of Balliol College, Oxford
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