UFC 315 Fight Card: Prelims Odds, Picks And Predictions
The UFC 315 pay-per-view card takes place this weekend in Montreal, Canada. While the top of the card features two UFC title fights, fight fans, especially Canadian fight fans, will want to tune in for the prelims and early prelims of the event, as more than half of the non-PPV bouts feature Canadian competitors. We look at the betting odds, line movement, predictions and picks for the prelims of UFC 315, which feature two Canadian fighters.
The main event of the ESPN+ streaming PPV card finds UFC welterweight champion Belal Muhammad making his first defense of his title. Muhammad faces the No. 5 ranked Jack Della Maddalena in that contest. Meanwhile, in the UFC 315 co-main event, Valentina Shevchenko looks to start her second run as the women's flyweight champion with a victory over the No. 2 ranked contender, Manon Fiorot.
The main card of UFC 315 streams on ESPN+ PPV following prelims on ESPN and early prelims on ESPN+.
Mike Malott vs. Charles Radtke
Jéssica Andrade vs. Jasmine Jasudavicius
Modestas Bukauskas vs. Ion Cutelaba
Navajo Stirling vs. Ivan Erslan
EDMONTON, ALBERTA - NOVEMBER 02: Mike Malott react after a victory against Trevin Giles in a ... More welterweight fight during the UFC Fight Night event at Rogers Place on November 02, 2024 in Edmonton, Alberta. (Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC)
When the betting odds for the welterweight contest for Mike Malott vs. Charles Radtke were first published, Malott was the -225 betting favorite over the +185 Radtke. Today, Malott is -220, while Radtke is the +185 betting underdog.
Malott opened his UFC career with three stoppage wins, but that run ended abruptly when he more or less quit in a TKO loss to Neil Magny at UFC 297. He bounced back from that rough performance with a decision win over Trevin Giles in November 2024.
Radtke is 3-1 in the UFC and coming off a "Performance of the Night" bonus-winning knockout win over Matthew Semelsberger in November.
Malott is the better fighter in this contest, and if we go by his win over Giles, he's at least attempted to address the shortcomings we saw in the Magny bout. So, the betting pick is Malott, who is fighting in his home country to win via decision, but that pick is made with some apprehension, and there could be value in Radtke getting the upset if one doesn't feel confident in Malott.
RIYADH, SAUDI ARABIA - FEBRUARY 01: Jasmine Jasudavicius of Canada reacts after a victory against ... More Mayra Bueno Silva of Brazil in a flyweight fight during the UFC Fight Night event at anb Arena on February 01, 2025 in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. (Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC)
We have ranked women's flyweight fighters in this one in the No. 7 Jessica Andrade against the No. 9 Jasmine Jasudavicius. The opening odds saw Jasudavicius as the -400 favorite over the +330 Andrade. The betting line has moved a fair amount for this matchup. Today, Jasudavicius is listed at -265, while Andrade is +225.
Andrade, a former UFC strawweight champ, moved back to 125 after a 2-2 run at 115. In her first fight back at flyweight, Andrade dropped a decision to Natalia Silva, who is fighting on the PPV portion of this card. As for Jasudavicius, she is on a four-fight winning streak, with three of those bouts coming at 125 pounds and the other at 135.
Jasudavicius has a significant advantage in height and reach in this bout, and that could come into play if the fight goes to the ground, which is where Jasudavicius will try to force the action. She has picked up 10 takedowns in her past three fights and picked up more than 20 minutes of control time in those outings, all of which were three-round contests. Andrade needs to keep the fight standing, but that will be hard for her to accomplish against her opponent's wrestling.
The betting pick is for Jasudavicius to grind out a decision.
SEATTLE, WASHINGTON - FEBRUARY 22: Modestas Bukauskas of Lithuania reacts after a victory against ... More Rafael Cerqueira of Brazil in a light heavyweight fight during the UFC Fight Night event at Climate Pledge Arena on February 22, 2025 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC)
We have two light heavyweight bouts opening the UFC 315 prelims. This 205-pound scrap found Modestas Bukauskas opening at -115 against Ion Cutelaba who was listed at -125. The fight remains a pick 'em, with Bukauskas at -119 and Cutelaba at -101.
Bukauskas, a former two-time Cage Warriors light heavyweight champ, is in his second stint with the UFC. In his first run with the promotion, Bukauskas went 1-3. He rejoined the UFC in 2023 and is 4-1 in his current run, with back-to-back victories, most recently knocking out Raffael Cerqueira in February.
Cutelaba has been with the UFC since 2016. He had not won two fights in a row with the promotion until he put together back-to-back wins in his two most recent outings. His most recent win came in February when he submitted İbo Aslan.
This should be a fun bout, and it would not be a surprise to see it end with a knockout. I'm going with the more technical fighter, Bukauskas, to get things done.
TAMPA, FLORIDA - DECEMBER 14: Navajo Stirling of New Zealand reacts after a unanimous-decision ... More victory against Tuco Tokkos of England in a light heavyweight fight during the UFC Fight Night event at Amalie Arena on December 14, 2024 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC)
Navajo Stirling opened as a -275 betting favorite over Ivan Erslan, who was listed at +185. Those betting odds for the first prelim on the UFC 315 fight card currently have Stirling at -265 and Erslan at +225.
Stirling made a statement on the DWCS series, earning a contract with a KO win. In his first UFC fight, he picked up a decision win over Tuco Tokkos. As for Erslan, his first UFC came against Ion Cutelaba, a bout that Cutelaba won via split decsion.
Stirling is rather green to MMA with a 6-0 pro record, but he has kickboxing experience. As shown in his most recent fight, he lacks ground skills. Erslan is also a striker, and that makes Stirling the pick via decision. However, if Erslan does have grappling skills and starts to pick up takedowns in the early going of this one, it might serve bettors well to find some live betting options and switch that pick.
*Betting odds and betting line movement via BetOnline
Saturday, May 10, 2025
Early Prelims: 6:00 p.m. ET
Prelims: 8:00 p.m. ET
Main Card: 10:00 p.m ET
Bell Centre in Montreal, Quebec, Canada
We will have more on UFC 315 as fight night approaches, including main card picks and predictions. Also, look for UFC 315 results and reactions on fight night.
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