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Bessent says US will never default as Congress faces endgame

Bessent says US will never default as Congress faces endgame

Straits Times2 days ago

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent looks on during a press conference in the Oval Office at the White House on May 30. PHOTO: EPA-EFE
Bessent says US will never default as Congress faces endgame
WASHINGTON – Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the US 'is never going to default' as the deadline for increasing the federal debt ceiling gets closer.
'That is never going to happen,' Mr Bessent said on June 1 in an interview with CBS's Face the Nation. 'We are on the warning track and we will never hit the wall.'
Republican congressional leaders have attached an increase in the debt limit to President Donald Trump's tax and spending Bill, which potentially puts avoiding a default at the mercy of complex negotiations over the legislation. The US Senate returns this week to take up the Bill.
Mr Bessent declined to specify an 'X date' – the point at which the Treasury runs out of cash and special accounting measures that allow it to stay within the debt ceiling and still make good on federal obligations on time.
'We don't give out the 'X date' because we use that to move the Bill forward,' Mr Bessent said. In May, Mr Bessent told lawmakers that the US was likely to exhaust its borrowing authority by August if the debt ceiling isn't raised or suspended by then.
Wall Street analysts and private forecasters see the deadline falling sometime between late August and mid-October.
Mr Bessent also pushed back against a warning by JPMorgan Chase & Co Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon that a crack in the bond market 'is going to happen.'
'I've known Jamie for a long time, and for his entire career he's made predictions like this,' he said. 'Fortunately none of them have come true. That's why he's a great banker. He tries to look around the corner.'
'We are going to bring the deficit down slowly,' Mr Bessent said. 'This has been a long process, so the goal is to bring it down over the next four years.'
China call
After Mr Trump last week accused authorities in Beijing of violating a US-Chinese tariff truce reached in May, Bessent said he's confident that the latest clash 'will be ironed out' in a call between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping 'very soon.'
White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett said the call is expected to take place this week.
Mr Trump 'is going to have a wonderful conversation about the trade negotiations this week with President Xi,' Mr Hassett said on ABC's This Week. 'That's our expectation.'
US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer on May 30 accused China of failing to comply with elements of the trade agreement brokered in Geneva, saying Beijing continues to 'slow down and choke off things like critical minerals and rare-earth magnets.'
'Maybe it's a glitch in the Chinese system, maybe it's intentional,' Mr Bessent said on June 1. 'We'll see after the president speaks with the party chairman.'
He also suggested any impact on the US construction industry from Mr Trump's decision to double US tariffs on steel and aluminum imports to 50 per cent would be offset by benefits to the steel industry.
'So is it going to impact the construction industry, maybe,' Mr Bessent told CBS. 'But it's going to impact the steel industry in a great way. BLOOMBERG
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AI ‘vibe coding' startups burst onto scene with sky-high valuations
AI ‘vibe coding' startups burst onto scene with sky-high valuations

Business Times

timean hour ago

  • Business Times

AI ‘vibe coding' startups burst onto scene with sky-high valuations

[NEW YORK] Two years after the launch of ChatGPT, return on investment in generative AI has been elusive, but one area stands out: software development. So-called code generation or 'code-gen' startups are commanding sky-high valuations as corporate boardrooms look to use AI to aid, and sometimes to replace, expensive human software engineers. Cursor, a code generation startup based in San Francisco that can suggest and complete lines of code and write whole sections of code autonomously, raised US$900 million at a US$10 billion valuation in May from a who's who list of tech investors, including Thrive Capital, Andreessen Horowitz and Accel. Windsurf, a Mountain View-based startup behind the popular AI coding tool Codeium, attracted the attention of ChatGPT maker OpenAI, which is now in talks to acquire the company for US$3 billion, sources familiar with the matter told Reuters. Its tool is known for translating plain English commands into code, sometimes called 'vibe coding,' which allows people with no knowledge of computer languages to write software. OpenAI and Windsurf declined to comment on the acquisition. 'AI has automated all the repetitive, tedious work,' said Scott Wu, CEO of code gen startup Cognition. 'The software engineer's role has already changed dramatically. It's not about memorising esoteric syntax anymore.' BT in your inbox Start and end each day with the latest news stories and analyses delivered straight to your inbox. Sign Up Sign Up Founders of code-gen startups and their investors believe they are in a land grab situation, with a shrinking window to gain a critical mass of users and establish their AI coding tool as the industry standard. But because most are built on AI foundation models developed elsewhere, such as OpenAI, Anthropic, or DeepSeek, their costs per query are also growing, and none are yet profitable. They're also at risk of being disrupted by Google, Microsoft and OpenAI, which all announced new code-gen products in May, and Anthropic is also working on one as well, two sources familiar with the matter told Reuters. The rapid growth of these startups is coming despite competing on big tech's home turf. Microsoft's GitHub Copilot, launched in 2021 and considered code-gen's dominant player, grew to over US$500 million in revenue last year, according to a source familiar with the matter. Microsoft declined to comment on GitHub Copilot's revenue. On Microsoft's earnings call in April, the company said the product has over 15 million users. Learn to code? As AI revolutionises the industry, many jobs – particularly entry-level coding positions that are more basic and involve repetition – may be eliminated. Signalfire, a VC firm that tracks tech hiring, found that new hires with less than a year of experience fell 24 per cent in 2024, a drop it attributes to tasks once assigned to entry-level software engineers are now being fulfilled in part with AI. Google's CEO also said in April that 'well over 30 per cent' of Google's code is now AI-generated, and Amazon CEO Andy Jassy said last year the company had saved 'the equivalent of 4,500 developer-years' by using AI. Google and Amazon declined to comment. In May, Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella said at a conference that approximately 20 to 30 per cent of their code is now AI-generated. The same month, the company announced layoffs of 6,000 workers globally, with over 40 per cent of those being software developers in Microsoft's home state, Washington. 'We're focused on creating AI that empowers developers to be more productive, creative, and save time,' a Microsoft spokesperson said. 'This means some roles will change with the revolution of AI, but human intelligence remains at the centre of the software development life cycle.' Mounting losses Some 'vibe-coding' platforms already boast substantial annualised revenues. Cursor, with just 60 employees, went from zero to US$100 million in recurring revenue by January 2025, less than two years since its launch. Windsurf, founded in 2021, launched its code generation product in November 2024 and is already bringing in US$50 million in annualised revenue, according to a source familiar with the company. But both startups operate with negative gross margins, meaning they spend more than they make, according to four investor sources familiar with their operations. 'The prices people are paying for coding assistants are going to get more expensive,' Quinn Slack, CEO at coding startup Sourcegraph, told Reuters. To make the higher cost an easier pill to swallow for customers, Sourcegraph is now offering a drop-down menu to let users choose which models they want to work with, from open source models such as DeepSeek to the most advanced reasoning models from Anthropic and OpenAI so they can opt for cheaper models for basic questions. Both Cursor and Windsurf are led by recent MIT graduates in their twenties, and exemplify the gold rush era of the AI startup scene. 'I haven't seen people working this hard since the first Internet boom,' said Martin Casado, a general partner at Andreessen Horowitz, an investor in Anysphere, the company behind Cursor. What's less clear is whether the dozen or so code-gen companies will be able to hang on to their customers as big tech moves in. 'In many cases, it's less about who's got the best technology – it's about who is going to make the best use of that technology, and who's going to be able to sell their products better than others,' said Scott Raney, managing director at Redpoint Ventures, whose firm invested in Sourcegraph and Poolside, a software development startup that's building its own AI foundation model. Custom AI models Most of the AI coding startups currently rely on the Claude AI model from Anthropic, which crossed US$3 billion in annualised revenue in May in part due to fees paid by code-gen companies. But some startups are attempting to build their own models. In May, Windsurf announced its first in-house AI models that are optimised for software engineering in a bid to control the user experience. 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Temasek's Mapletree Investments returns to profit, hits record AUM of S$80.3 billion in FY2025
Temasek's Mapletree Investments returns to profit, hits record AUM of S$80.3 billion in FY2025

Business Times

time2 hours ago

  • Business Times

Temasek's Mapletree Investments returns to profit, hits record AUM of S$80.3 billion in FY2025

[SINGAPORE] Temasek's Mapletree Investments reversed a loss from the previous year to turn a profit of S$227.2 million for the full-year ended Mar 31, on the back of narrowed overall revaluation losses. This was while its assets under management (AUM) hit a record S$80.3 billion, 3.6 per cent higher than S$77.5 billion reported in the same period the year before, the company said in a statement on Tuesday (Jun 3). Revenue for the period was S$2.2 billion, lower than the year before due to the deconsolidation of Mapletree Logistics Trust (MLT), one of three Singapore-listed real estate investment trusts managed by the group. Excluding the impact of the deconsolidation, the group's revenue was 1.2 per cent higher than in the previous financial year. Recurring profit after tax and minority interests was S$637.4 million for the full year. Separately, the company recorded total net proceeds of S$897 million from divestment of non-core assets, other divestments to MLT and the syndication of Mapletree Japan Investment Country Private Trust. A NEWSLETTER FOR YOU Tuesday, 12 pm Property Insights Get an exclusive analysis of real estate and property news in Singapore and beyond. Sign Up Sign Up The group's projects under development increased to S$5.5 billion, from S$3.7 billion previously. Hiew Yoon Khong, group chief executive officer, said the company had deepened its focus on its core sectors for this FY. These include logistics, student housing, office and data centres. This was done through prioritising operational performance, investing selectively in specific markets with growth potential, and embarking on more development projects for higher returns, he added. 'These strategic priorities underpinned Mapletree's resilient FY24/25 performance, and will continue to guide the group in fostering sustainable growth.' Logistics and accommodation Mapletree Investments manages three Singapore-listed real estate investment trusts and nine private equity real estate funds. In logistics, the group continued to acquire quality logistics assets and embarked on new logistics development initiatives across the Asia-Pacific. In Europe, it entered the United Kingdom logistics market by acquiring Derby DC1 and Verda Park. It also deepened its presence in Spain by acquiring a portfolio of 10 logistics assets. As at Mar 31, 2025, the group's logistics portfolio in Europe and the UK stood at S$2.2 billion. The group is also currently marketing a new logistics development fund, focusing on Malaysia, India and Vietnam, where 'institutional-grade logistics products are undersupplied', it said. The Mapletree Emerging Growth Asia Logistics Development Fund (Mega), will comprise development assets with a total AUM of US$1.8 billion, and is targeted to close this year. In student housing, the group completed a £1 billion (S$1.7 billion) acquisition of a portfolio of 31 UK and Germany student housing assets. This move sent Mapletree to fourth position among the largest student-housing owners in the UK as at Mar 31, from seventh place. Offices and data centres As for the office sector, Mapletree continued to pour investments into the India and Vietnam markets to ride the demand for quality offices. In India, the group acquired a land parcel in Bengaluru for a greenfield office-development project called Global Business City in FY24/25. When completed, it will house office spaces with a net lettable area of 743,224 square metres (sq m) on a plot 153,780 sq m in size. Over in Vietnam, Mapletree acquired a land parcel in Hanoi to develop a 92,000 sq m, Grade-A mixed-use office project with retail amenities. In the data centre sector, Mapletree Industrial Trust acquired a freehold, mixed-use facility in Japan, with a redevelopment opportunity to turn it into a data centre. Meanwhile, the group's first data centre development, in Fanling, Hong Kong, is set to complete in the second half of this year. 'Mapletree will continue to explore new opportunities to expand its data centre footprint in established core markets in Europe, where investor appetite remains strong,' it said. It will also explore emerging markets such as London, Milan and Madrid, which present 'strong potential for returns'. In the Asia-Pacific, the group will focus on mature and high-potential markets such as Japan and Korea. Said Hiew: 'We will continue to prioritise enhancing operational performance for our existing assets, maintaining a selective investment approach in markets with growth potential, creating greater value through development projects ... all the while deepening collaborations with like-minded capital partners on new funds and syndication.'

Why the S&P 500 is cruising through policy upheaval
Why the S&P 500 is cruising through policy upheaval

Business Times

time2 hours ago

  • Business Times

Why the S&P 500 is cruising through policy upheaval

IF YOU are wondering why the S&P 500 index has held up so well in the past two months, look no further than the technology and communications sectors, which collectively account for nearly half of the index by weighting. For all the wild and headline-grabbing swings in trade policy since early April, analysts have continued to project more than 14 per cent earnings growth in those combined sectors this year – an outlook that really has not budged. Wall Street is not ignoring the potential risks from tariffs and a consumer slowdown; analysts just think that America's innovation superstars will partially offset any damage. And reasonably so. Artificial intelligence (AI) poster child Nvidia Corp said last week that it had US$44.1 billion in revenue in the latest quarter, up an extraordinary 69 per cent from a year earlier. Microsoft Corp, the index's biggest company by weighting, posted a 20 per cent increase in cloud revenue last quarter, showing why its software-heavy model leaves it relatively insulated from tariffs. And Netflix, which successfully hiked subscription prices recently, said revenue jumped 12.5 per cent, reaffirming the resilience of its business model. None of this is to say that all is fine and dandy in the economy, but there is clearly a compositional element to the perceived strength of the main equity index. In addition to the sector-weightings issue, my Bloomberg Opinion colleague Nir Kaissar has pointed out that the companies with the heaviest weights also tend to enjoy extraordinary pricing power that will serve them well in the face of a trade war. That partially explains why the S&P 500 is back within spitting distance of its all-time highs, even as small-caps and mid-caps are still down about 17 per cent and 11 per cent, respectively. But even for large-cap stocks, the index outlook can be somewhat deceiving. Consumer discretionary earnings forecasts have not held up quite so well since President Donald Trump left markets in a tizzy with his Apr 2 'Liberation Day' tariffs on countries around the world. BT in your inbox Start and end each day with the latest news stories and analyses delivered straight to your inbox. Sign Up Sign Up According to data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence, Wall Street analysts now expect the S&P 500's consumer discretionary sector to post a 1.2 per cent earnings drop this year. Prior to Apr 2, analysts expected discretionary growth of 4.5 per cent. The outlook for the consumer staples sector has also been revised sharply lower. The revisions reflect a weaker revenue environment and – for discretionary in particular – narrower profit margins. The question now is what comes next. On the positive side, the US Court of International Trade ruled last week that many of Trump's tariffs are illegal. But as Goldman Sachs Group wrote, the ruling 'might not change the final outcome for most major US trading partners'. A federal appeals court on May 29 paused the Court of International Trade's ruling, and the White House plans to appeal to the Supreme Court. Even if it fails in its appeal, Goldman Sach's Alec Phillips said the White House could still reinstate many of the other tariffs through other legal means. A number of market participants think that Trump has experienced buyers' remorse over some of the tariffs (or 'chickens out' whenever market volatility rears its head). But if Trump were really looking for a chance to walk away from the policy entirely while still saving face politically, this ruling would be precisely that off-ramp. All indications suggest that he is not going to take it. On the macroeconomic front, the outlook is equally foggy. Revisions to first-quarter gross domestic product published on May 29 showed that consumer spending advanced at its weakest pace in two years, and higher-frequency data from the Bank of America Institute suggest that the consumer slowdown extended into April and the first part of May. The traditional labour market indicators have been decent, yet hiring remains extremely sluggish and continuing jobless claims are now at their highest since 2021. At the corporate level, even some of the superstar stocks are flashing warning signs, with tariff-exposed Apple expected to post just 'low to mid-single digit' revenue growth in its next quarterly report (though that depends on the outcome of tariff policy). Investors are also rightfully on alert for further headwinds to ad-driven businesses including Alphabet and Meta Platforms. As for the quintessential AI stocks including Nvidia and Microsoft, investors may one day find themselves on the wrong side of extraordinarily high expectations. But evidently that day is not today. There is a common bearish take that the market is ignoring the macroeconomic headwinds, and I do not think that is quite right. Yes, the S&P 500 is probably at the richer end of its fair value band, but it is not untethered from it. Mr Market seems to have the story generally right: a handful of innovation superstars continue to deliver other-worldly results. Another handful of consumer-based sectors are starting to struggle, due to the softening consumer and nonsensical trade policy that is apparently on the ropes. And beyond that, nobody has the faintest idea of what is going to happen next. BLOOMBERG

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