Airlines weigh Middle East cancellations after US strikes in Iran
Commercial airlines around the world on June 23 were weighing how long to suspend Middle East flights after the US struck Iran. PHOTO: EPA-EFE
Follow our live coverage here.
DUBAI - Commercial airlines around the world on June 23 were weighing how long to suspend Middle East flights as a conflict which has already cut off major flight routes entered a new phase after the US attacked key Iranian nuclear sites and Tehran vowed to defend itself.
The usually busy airspace stretching from Iran and Iraq to the Mediterranean has been largely empty of commercial air traffic for 10 days since Israel began strikes on Iran on June 13, as airlines divert, cancel and delay flights through the region due to airspace closures and safety concerns.
New cancellations of some flights by international carriers in recent days to usually resilient aviation hubs like Dubai, the world's busiest international airport, and Qatar's Doha, show how aviation industry concerns about the region have escalated.
However, some international airlines were resuming services on June 23 .
Leading Asian carrier Singapore Airlines, which described the situation as 'fluid', was set to resume flying to Dubai on June 23 after cancelling its June 22 flight from Singapore.
Similarly, Flightradar24 departure boards show British Airways, owned by IAG, was set to resume Dubai and Doha flights on June 23 after cancelling routes to and from those airports on Sunday.
Air France KLM cancelled flights to and from Dubai and Riyadh on June 22 and June 23 .
With Russian and Ukrainian airspace also closed to most airlines due to years of war, the Middle East had become a more important route for flights between Europe and Asia.
Amid missile and air strikes during the past 10 days, airlines have routed north via the Caspian Sea or south via Egypt and Saudi Arabia.
Added to increased fuel and crew costs from these long detours and cancellations, carriers also face a potential hike in jet fuel costs as oil prices rise following the US attacks.
Airspace risks
Proliferating conflict zones are an increasing operational burden on airlines, as aerial attacks raise worries about accidental or deliberate shoot-downs of commercial air traffic.
Location spoofing and GPS interference around political hotspots, where ground-based GPS systems broadcast incorrect positions which can send commercial airliners off course, are also a growing issue for commercial aviation.
Flightradar24 told Reuters it had seen a 'dramatic increase' in jamming and spoofing in recent days over the Persian Gulf.
SkAI, a Swiss company that runs a GPS disruption map, late on June 22 said it had observed more than 150 aircraft spoofed in 24 hours there.
Safe Airspace, a website run by OPSGROUP, a membership-based organisation that shares flight risk information, noted on June 22 that US attacks on Iran's nuclear sites could heighten the threat to American operators in the region.
This could raise additional airspace risks in Gulf states like Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, it said.
In the days before the US strikes, American Airlines suspended flights to Qatar, and United Airlines did the same with flights to Dubai. They have yet to resume.
While international airlines are shying away from the region, local carriers in Jordan, Lebanon and Iraq are tentatively resuming some flights after widespread cancellations.
Israel is ramping up flights to help people return home, and leave. The country's Airports Authority says that so-called rescue flights to the country would expand on June 23 with 24 a day, although each flight would be limited to 50 passengers.
From June 23 , Israeli airlines will start to operate outbound flights from Israel, the authority said.
Israeli airline El Al on June 22 said it had received applications to leave the country from about 25,000 people in about a day. REUTERS
Join ST's Telegram channel and get the latest breaking news delivered to you.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Business Times
an hour ago
- Business Times
Global airlines halt Middle East flights as war disruptions reach Dubai
[DUBAI] Major global airlines extended flight cancellations to the Persian Gulf, disrupting air traffic to critical hubs such as Dubai after the US struck nuclear sites in Iran and Teheran vowed to retaliate. Singapore Airlines said it would suspend service to Dubai until Wednesday (Jun 25) night and warned more flights could be scrapped due to the fluidity of the situation. British Airways added cancellations to Dubai and Doha, while Air France-KLM reportedly will scrap flights to Dubai and Riyadh. The airlines' decisions highlight the potential for a widening of the war between Israel and Iran after US President Donald Trump joined the fight by attacking Iran's nuclear sites. The dramatic escalation risks retaliation, potentially disrupting economies that had previously been shielded from the fallout of regional hostilities. Dubai, home to Emirates, and Doha, the capital of Qatar and its namesake airline, are major travel hubs that handle much of the traffic within the Middle East and form a crossroads for long-haul travel between Asia, Europe and North America. They had avoided previous suspensions that were contained to countries surrounding Israel and the skies over nations where Iran's missiles pass. Prior to the US strikes on Sunday, Teheran threatened to hit US bases in the Persian Gulf should Washington get involved, and close down the Strait of Hormuz, a vital oil trade waterway it borders with the United Arab Emirates and Oman. Qatar hosts the largest US base in the region, while Bahrain is home to the US Navy's Fifth Fleet. 'A widening conflict around the Strait of Hormuz could threaten to disrupt global airline traffic, particularly if flight restrictions to key transfer hubs in Qatar and the UAE were to occur,' Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Eric Zhu and George Ferguson wrote in a note. Excluding local carriers, Indian airlines including IndiGo, Turkish Airlines and British Airways are among the most exposed, they wrote. BT in your inbox Start and end each day with the latest news stories and analyses delivered straight to your inbox. Sign Up Sign Up Shares of the major network carriers fell, including Air France-KLM, Deutsche Lufthansa and BA parent IAG in Europe. United Airlines Holdings and Delta Air Lines declined in premarket US trading. Singapore Airlines has halted flights to Dubai from the city-state since Sunday over security concerns. British Airways diverted a Dubai-bound flight to Zurich after it reached Saudi Arabia's airspace in the early hours of Sunday, according to data from Flightradar24. Another jet returned to Heathrow after going as far as Egypt. The London-based carrier earlier halted routes to Bahrain through the end of the month due to operational constraints and airspace restrictions. AFP and other outlets reported on the Air France suspensions. With no clear view on next steps, some companies began to take precautions. Japan's biggest banks are considering evacuating employees, with Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group beginning to pull out the families of staff. Japan's biggest bank has also halted unnecessary travel in and out of the region. Asian airlines have also taken steps to safeguard passengers and crews. Japan Airlines plans to have flights between Tokyo's Haneda airport and Doha avoid airspace above the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman, adding about 20 minutes to journeys. Air India will progressively avoid the use of certain airspace over the Persian Gulf in the coming days. The actions follow President Donald Trump's decision to undertake the US' first direct military action against Iran after decades of hostility, pushing the Middle East into uncharted territory. The possibility of further disruption will depend on how forcefully Iran retaliates. Trump has threatened more attacks if Teheran doesn't capitulate. Even before the US strikes, several American and European airlines had paused flights to the United Arab Emirates and Qatar after Israel started bombarding Iran. The skies over large swaths of the Middle East have been restricted at several times during the past 20 months, making flying through Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Iran difficult. The closures have forced airlines to cancel flights on profitable routes, spend more on jet fuel and pass through countries they usually avoid like Afghanistan, as they avoid dangerous skies. It has also meant hundreds of disrupted flights and thousands of stranded passengers. Israel has started to allow outbound flights after halting them since its launched latest attacks on Iran starting Jun 13. Tel Aviv is expected to let about 1,000 passengers per day leave the country from Ben Gurion Airport and Haifa. The flights, which have a strict limit of 50 passengers per plane to prevent too many people from congregating and presenting a major target at the airport. The government will prioritise foreigners, diplomats, and nationals needing to evacuate for life-saving or humanitarian reasons. The UK is organising a chartered flight for British nationals who want to leave Israel, while Germany sent a military transport plane to extract citizens and France said it also plans repatriation flights. BLOOMBERG
Straits Times
an hour ago
- Straits Times
Hungary and Slovakia block Russian sanctions package, Budapest says
FILE PHOTO: Plastic letters arranged to read \"Sanctions\" are placed in front of Russian flag colors in this illustration taken February 25, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/ File Photo BUDAPEST - Hungary and Slovakia have decided not to support the EU's plan for an 18th sanctions package against Russia, Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto said on Monday in a press briefing broadcast on his Facebook page. Hungary and Slovakia decided to block the sanctions package in response to European Union plans to phase out Russian energy imports, the minister said. "We did this because the European Union ... wants to prohibit member states, including Hungary and Slovakia, from purchasing cheap Russian natural gas and cheap Russian oil as they have done previously," Szijjarto said. Hungary and Slovakia continue to rely on Russian gas and oil supplies and have maintained warm ties with Moscow. The Commission on June 10 proposed a new round of sanctions against Russia for its invasion of Ukraine more than three years ago, targeting Moscow's energy revenues, its banks and its military industry. In response, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico said that Slovakia will not back the package of sanctions unless the European Commission provides a solution to the situation Slovakia faces if the bloc phases out Russian energy imports. Sanctions proposals require unanimity in the bloc for approval. Late on Sunday, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban urged the EU to take a proposed ban on Russian energy off the agenda due to an expected rise in energy prices following the U.S. bombing of Iran. REUTERS Join ST's Telegram channel and get the latest breaking news delivered to you.
Business Times
an hour ago
- Business Times
Looming Hormuz blockade threatens Asia's energy lifeline, unsettling oil market
[SINGAPORE] Oil and liquified natural gas (LNG) buyers in Asia have been unsettled by the Iranian parliament greenlighting a plan to close the Strait of Hormuz. The sea passage between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman is a critical choke point through which passes more than 20 per cent of global oil and LNG supplies – a majority of which are bound for Asian markets. While a full blockade is unlikely given how it would directly undermine Iran's own interest, even marginal disruptions could spike insurance costs and force Asia to confront its reliance on the choke point. Oil price spikes would also put pressure on regional central banks that are on track to cut interest rates to spur growth, warned market watchers. Following US' attacks on Iran's three nuclear sites, the Islamic Republic's state-owned media reported that its parliament had on Sunday (Jun 22) approved a measure to close the Strait of Hormuz. While the parliament's decision is not binding, a final decision would rest with top Iranian security officials. Washington has called on Beijing to dissuade Iran from shutting down the strait following the news. Cedric Chehab, chief economist at BMI, said: 'The odds of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have risen sharply.' A NEWSLETTER FOR YOU Friday, 8.30 am Asean Business Business insights centering on South-east Asia's fast-growing economies. Sign Up Sign Up Based on cryptocurrency-based prediction platform Polymarket, the implied probability of Iran blocking one of the world's most critical maritime choke points by the end of 2025 had shot up to 60 per cent, as at 8 pm on Sunday. Right after US' strikes, the Brent crude briefly surged above US$80 per barrel. Before the conflict, oil prices had largely hovered between US$60 and US$75 a barrel since August 2024. Oil markets have been waiting for Iran's further actions. During Asian trading hours on Monday, Brent crude futures had gained 2.6 per cent to about US$77.4 per barrel as at 9 am Singapore time, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures had risen 2.8 per cent to US$75.9 a barrel. Bank of Singapore's commodity strategist Sim Moh Siong noted that markets are wary of a 'tail risk', arising from the increasing possibility of the worst-case scenario of a Hormuz blockade. 'While it (the likelihood of the tail risk event) has increased a lot, it is still considered as a low-probability event. But if it does happen, it could have very disruptive, very severe consequences,' he warned. The Strait of Hormuz is the exit route from the Persian Gulf for around 25 per cent of the world's oil supply – including from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Qatar, Iraq and Iran – and most of the world's spare production capacity, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). Sim added that Iran would directly hurt its own oil exports and relationships with the Gulf states if it decides to close the choke point. BMI's Chehab shared the same view, adding that an attempt at closure could spark Israeli intervention and potential larger military responses from the US, raising the threat of a regime change. Pang Lu Ming, senior analyst at Rystad Energy, highlighted that even though Iran's ability to close the Strait of Hormuz fully is challenged, the situation undoubtedly increases the risks for any vessel passing through the water body. 'This will result in players having to price in the risk (of) supply disruption, and an increase in insurance costs,' he added. Asia is most vulnerable Some 84 per cent of the crude oil and condensate, and 83 per cent of the LNG that moved through the Strait of Hormuz in 2024 went to Asian markets, estimated the US Energy Information Administration. China, India, Japan, and South Korea were the top destinations for the crude oil moving through the strait to Asia, accounting for a combined 69 per cent of all Hormuz crude oil and condensate flows last year, noted the agency in a report released on Jun 16. 'Asian economies would be significantly and directly impacted by any interruption to supplies from the Strait of Hormuz, given that most of their seaborne energy imports flow through there,' noted Chehab. He highlighted that about 94 per cent of Japan's oil imports come from the strait; that figure is about 68 per cent for South Korea, 51 per cent for China, and 46 per cent for India. IEA's energy outlook report released last October showed that more than 50 per cent of South-east Asia's crude imports came via the Strait of Hormuz in 2023. Similarly, most of the LNG cargoes from Qatar and the UAE, the two leading exporters in the region, have been flowing towards Asia, noted Rystad Energy's Pang, highlighting that 34 per cent of China's LNG imports have been reliant on the two countries, while both India and Bangladesh have been more than 60 per cent reliant. 'Should there be a disruption in supply, these buyers will have to seek additional volumes from other suppliers, which will drive up the price of spot LNG,' he said, adding that the market's immediate concern is to meet prompt LNG demand in case of disruptions to cargo from the Gulf. Central banks' challenges Given Asia's heavy reliance on the energy imports from the Strait of Hormuz, any supply shock would put Asian central banks in a very difficult situation, noted BMI's Chehab. 'On the one hand, monetary policymakers would need to raise interest rates in order to address the pass-through inflationary pressures from higher oil prices. But on the other hand, they would want to cut interest rates in order to support growth, which is already slowing for most economies,' he said. Meanwhile, as the US transformed into a net exporter of energy from an importer, the greenback strength has also been increasingly tied to oil prices, highlighted Bank of Singapore's Sim. 'When the oil price goes up, you have a stronger US dollar, and that, in turn, means more difficult situations for the rest of Asia, because now they also have to deal with a potentially weaker Asian currency against the US dollar, amidst higher oil prices,' he explained. While the US dollar has remained depressed this year, providing Asian central banks the flexibility to cut rates, a quickly rising greenback in response to 'a big shift in risk aversion' would further pressure these banks to keep monetary policy settings tight, noted Chehab.
