Iran tried to fire 1,000 missiles at Israel but could only muster 100
Credit: X
As Israeli missiles rained down across the country, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's supreme leader, reportedly summoned his national security council for an emergency meeting. There was only item on the agenda: how strongly would – or could – the Islamic regime respond?
Iran's military planning was already in disarray. Israel had killed its four most senior general in the meticulously executed opening salvoes of its campaign. Many of the country's first-line air defences and missile bases lay in smouldering ruins.
The supreme leader was cautious. He wanted revenge, certainly, but warned that acting hastily could misfire. Others cautioned against provoking a wider war that might draw in the United States, especially now that Iran's ability to defend itself had been severely compromised.
Doing too little risked the perception of meek capitulation. An order was given to launch a barrage of up to 1,000 ballistic missiles in a massive show of force intended to prove that Iran was far from a spent force.
But in the end, Iran only managed to launch 100 missiles as Israeli strikes had disrupted efforts to move missiles from storage to launchpads quickly.
Credit: emilyintelaviv/Instagram
There is no question that Iran's opening barrage brought destruction. Israel's multi-layered air defences, backed by US firepower, intercepted many missiles in the skies above Israel's cities – but not all. At least three people were killed and 21 more injured, according to Israel's emergency services.
Iran's used half as many ballistic missiles as it launched last October in retaliation for the assassination Hassan Nasrallah, the Hezbollah leader, and Israel's incursion into southern Lebanon.
But writing Iran off would be premature. Its long-range missile bases have reportedly been destroyed, but by no means all.
It may be conserving ammunition in anticipation of a drawn-out campaign. Even with smaller salvos, it can clearly inflict significant casualties.
Analysts suggested Iran's primary targets appear not to be Israel military sites but civilian population centres.
Credit: Kan 11
Tehran has spent years preparing for an Israeli assault, but it is fighting from a far weaker position than it would have liked. Its 'long arm' – the far-flung network of proxy groups meant to encircle Israel in a 'ring of fire' – may not have been amputated but it has been fractured in multiple places.
Hezbollah, once the most potent weapon in Iran's deterrence arsenal, has been so badly crippled that it cannot respond – and most likely does not wish to.
Its surviving leaders are still seething over what they see as Iran's failure to aid them beyond October's missile strikes, widely viewed within the movement as performative. The fall of the Assad regime in Syria, the main conduit for Iranian weapons, has also severely hampered Hezbollah's efforts to rearm.
Hamas, largely leaderless and fighting for its survival, is incapable of inflicting meaningful damage. Even a renewed Houthi campaign against international shipping in the Red Sea would do little to hurt Israel directly.
Iran must therefore look to itself and it is unclear whether the mullahs can match their rhetorical bombast with meaningful military results.
Credit: standwithus/Instagram
Tehran certainly appears to have fared worse in the opening salvos. The loss of so many of many senior officers and scientists stemmed from a startling miscalculation.
Convinced that Israel would not strike before Iranian nuclear negotiators had met their US counterparts in Oman on Sunday, Khamenei's generals chose to sleep in their own beds rather than in safe houses – a fatal decision.
Likewise Gen Amir Ali Hajizadeh, the commander of Iran's aerospace forces, convened a meeting of his senior staff in defiance of a directive banning just such gatherings. All were killed.
Those in the military and political hierarchy who remain alive will be looking at last year's Hezbollah precedent with considerable unease. Israel systematically eliminated almost ever single one of the group's top commanders, culminating in Nasrallah himself.
Such is Israel's intelligence prowess that many analysts assume Iran's senior leadership has been penetrated and that even Khamenei himself may not be safe. These are hardly ideal conditions in which to plan a war.
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