logo
Dollar tumbles, traders price in more US rate cuts after weak jobs report

Dollar tumbles, traders price in more US rate cuts after weak jobs report

Nikkei Asia6 days ago
NEW YORK (Reuters) -- The dollar fell broadly on Friday after data showed that U.S. employers added fewer jobs in July than economists had expected, while last month's jobs gains were revised sharply lower, leading traders to ramp up bets on how many times the Federal Reserve is likely to cut rates this year.
Employers added 73,000 jobs last month, below the 100,000 expected by economists polled by Reuters, while the unemployment rate edged higher to 4.2%, as anticipated, up from 4.1% in June. Job gains for June were revised down to 14,000, from the previously reported 147,000.
"It's worse than anyone expected and the kicker is that downward revision for the prior month too," said Helen Given, director of trading at Money USA in Washington.
The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, was last down 1.09% on the day at 98.94.
The euro rose 1.22% to $1.1554. The single currency reached $1.1389 earlier on Friday, the lowest since June 10.
Against the Japanese yen, the dollar weakened 1.58% to 148.35. The greenback earlier reached 150.91, the highest since March 28.
The Fed has indicated it is in no rush to cut rates due to concern that President Donald Trump's tariff policies will reignite inflation over the coming months.
Fed funds futures traders pared bets on how many times the U.S. central bank is likely to cut rates this year after Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday offered a hawkish outlook for monetary policy and declined to indicate that a cut in September was likely.
But they ramped up bets on cuts again on Friday after the jobs data. Traders are now pricing in 54 basis points of cuts by year-end, up from around 34 basis points on Thursday, with the first cut seen in September.
Whether the Fed cuts in September will now likely depend on the next jobs report for August.
"[Powell] did say on Wednesday that we were looking at holding rates steadier for longer, but that we were going to get two sets of employment data before the next Fed meeting. So as this first set has been so decidedly negative... the labor market is clearly, clearly cooling, that's going to raise the importance of that September figure as well," said Given.
The dollar had gained earlier on Friday after Trump imposed new tariff rates on dozens of trade partners.
The Swiss franc was among the hardest hit as Switzerland now faces a 39% rate.
The Swissie fell against a range of currencies in response to Trump's hefty duties and to his demand that pharma companies - key Swiss exporters - lower the prices at which they sell to U.S. consumers.
The dollar was last down 0.82% against the Swiss franc at 0.806, after earlier reaching 0.8171, the highest since June 23.
The Canadian dollar strengthened 0.58% versus the greenback to C$1.38 per dollar, after earlier easing to C$1.3879, the weakest since May 22. Canada was hit with a 35% tariff, instead of the threatened 25%.
The dollar had also gained against other currencies due to drivers other than tariffs. The yen was earlier headed for its largest weekly loss this year after the Bank of Japan signaled it was in no hurry to resume interest rate hikes, prompting Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato to say on Friday that officials were "alarmed" by currency moves.
Orange background

Try Our AI Features

Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:

Comments

No comments yet...

Related Articles

Trump's Reciprocal Tariffs Go into Effect

timean hour ago

Trump's Reciprocal Tariffs Go into Effect

News from Japan Economy Aug 7, 2025 15:57 (JST) Washington, Aug. 7 (Jiji Press)--U.S. President Donald Trump's so-called reciprocal tariffs on trading partners, including a 15 pct levy on Japanese imports, went into effect on Thursday. The 15 pct tariff on Japan is lower than the 24 pct announced by Trump in April, but higher than the initial 10 pct baseline levy. The Trump administration has agreed not to impose the reciprocal tariff on Japanese goods that are already subject to a tariff of 15 pct or higher while setting the tariff rate at 15 pct on items with a levy of less than 15 pct. But that agreement is not mentioned in a document released by the U.S. government Wednesday. The tariff on Japanese beef will rise to 41 pct from 26.4 pct, a Japanese government official said. [Copyright The Jiji Press, Ltd.] Jiji Press

Gov't cuts Japan's FY 2025 GDP growth outlook to 0.7% on U.S. tariffs
Gov't cuts Japan's FY 2025 GDP growth outlook to 0.7% on U.S. tariffs

The Mainichi

time2 hours ago

  • The Mainichi

Gov't cuts Japan's FY 2025 GDP growth outlook to 0.7% on U.S. tariffs

TOKYO (Kyodo) -- Japan's economy is projected to grow a real 0.7 percent in the current fiscal year from April, revised down from an earlier estimate of 1.2 percent, as higher U.S. tariffs are expected to dampen exports and capital spending, the government said Thursday. The latest forecast compiled by the Cabinet Office is based on a bilateral trade deal reached last month, under which the United States will impose a 15 percent tariff on Japanese cars and other products, along with data for other countries as of the end of July. In its midyear report, the government revised down its fiscal 2025 export growth projection to 1.2 percent from 3.6 percent forecast in January, taking into account the impact of heftier U.S. tariffs on Japan's key auto and other industries. Business investment is now projected to rise 1.8 percent, downgraded from the previous estimate of 3.0 percent growth, as companies are expected to be more cautious about expanding production capacity amid weaker export prospects. "In addition to persistent inflation affecting consumer spending posing a downside risk to Japan's economy, it is also necessary to pay attention to downside risks caused by the effects of U.S. tariff policy and other factors," the government said in the report. Private consumption, which accounts for more than half of Japan's economy, is projected to rise 1.0 percent, compared with an earlier forecast of 1.3 percent growth, as persistent inflation continues to erode consumer sentiment. The Cabinet Office also unveiled its latest fiscal consolidation target, projecting a primary balance surplus of 3.6 trillion yen ($24 billion) in fiscal 2026 supported mainly by increased tax revenue, in line with the goal pledged in the government's economic and fiscal policy blueprint released in June. The primary balance -- tax and other revenues minus spending, excluding government bond interest payments -- is a key indicator of fiscal health, as a surplus indicates the government can cover its expenses without new bond issuance. The goal of achieving a primary balance surplus, first announced by the government in fiscal 2001, has been repeatedly postponed. In January, the government projected a 4.5 trillion yen deficit for fiscal 2025, but it is now expecting a deficit of 3.2 trillion yen. Japan's fiscal health is the worst among advanced economies, with total debt more than twice the size of its economy.

Seven & i Sets Goal of Adding 1,000 Stores in Japan by Fy30; Stephen Hayes Dacus Reveals First Medium-Term Plan Created by New Leadership Team
Seven & i Sets Goal of Adding 1,000 Stores in Japan by Fy30; Stephen Hayes Dacus Reveals First Medium-Term Plan Created by New Leadership Team

Yomiuri Shimbun

time2 hours ago

  • Yomiuri Shimbun

Seven & i Sets Goal of Adding 1,000 Stores in Japan by Fy30; Stephen Hayes Dacus Reveals First Medium-Term Plan Created by New Leadership Team

The announcement by Seven & i Holdings Inc. on Wednesday that the company plans to increase its number of domestic convenience stores by about 1,000 by the fiscal year starting April 2030 represents a key part of the company's medium-term plan for the period through fiscal 2030. The Japanese company intends to convert itself from a general retail group into a specialist in the convenience store business. However, experts point out that Seven & i may face an uphill battle in realizing this audacious growth strategy, as competition from rival convenience store chains is intensifying. Wednesday's plan represented the first set of management goals introduced by Seven & i's new leadership team, headed by Stephen Hayes Dacus, the U.S.-born president and CEO who took office in May. The plan also establishes a goal of raising Seven & i's operating revenue, which broadly corresponds to net sales, to 11.3 trillion yen, an increase of 13% from fiscal 2024. Additionally, the company plans to achieve a net increase of about 1,000 in its number of convenience stores it operates in Japan, which now stands at about 21,700. It will also make capital investments in more than 5,000 stores, with an aim of improving food sales. In North America, which accounts for about 70% of Seven & i's total sales, the company will open 1,300 new convenience stores, along with launching 1,100 stores attached to restaurants. It will also beef up its delivery services as a new source of revenue both in Japan and North America. In total, Seven & i plans to invest 3.2 trillion yen in growth by fiscal 2030, with most of the money used for opening new stores and renovating existing ones. The company is set to sell York Holdings Co., which operates Seven & i's non-convenience-store business, to U.S. investment firm Bain Capital LP. The non-convenience-store business includes Ito-Yokado Co., the business from which Seven & i originally spawned. At a press conference held Wednesday, Dacus stressed that it will be 'first time in Seven & i's history when the company will focus specifically on the convenience store business.' The CEO reflected on the company's attitude, saying that the company 'has become complacent in some ways. Seven & i will regain its founding spirit.' Pruning and consolidating Since receiving an acquisition proposal from Canadian convenience store giant Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc. in August last year, Seven & i has been working on reviewing its management structure, exemplified by the stepping down in May of then president Ryuichi Isaka, after having held the top position for about nine years. The company has also been pruning and consolidating its operations. In the past, Seven & i was engaged in a wide range of operations, including operating department stores, specialty stores and financial services. However, the company sold its department store unit Sogo & Seibu Co. in 2023. In June this year, the company announced that it would remove Seven Bank Ltd. from its consolidated financial statements. In mid-July, Couche-Tard dropped its acquisition proposal, but on Wednesday Dacus expressed his willingness to continue leading the company along the course set by the previous management team. Couche-Tard cited Seven & i's attitude in negotiation and problems in corporate governance as the reasons the acquisition proposal was abandoned. However, Dacus suggested that the Canadian company had likely been facing various pressures, apparently implying that Couche-Tard's own business performance was deteriorating. Risk remains The number of convenience stores in Japan has hovered at slightly above 55,000 since the mid-2010s. Seven & i is often described as the 'undisputed champion' of Japan's convenience store industry, but the number of 7-Eleven stores today is about 21,000, nearly unchanged from what it was in 2018. Seven & i has fallen behind in responding to rising prices for food and other goods, and the public perception that 7-Eleven stores are expensive is beginning to affect both customer numbers and sales. Dacus expressed his regret at the press conference, saying that 'the company's long-term success has brought complacency and made the company slower to innovate and implement new plans.' The company may face a new acquisition proposal if its stock price remains low. 'Unless [Seven & i] succeeds in raising its corporate value, the same thing will happen again eventually,' said a source related to Seven & i. 'I felt a sense of urgency [from the press conference], but it was lacking in specific details about things like products,' said Shun Tanaka, a senior analyst at SBI Securities Co. 'The company must regain the brand power it once had to receive positive evaluation from the market.'

DOWNLOAD THE APP

Get Started Now: Download the App

Ready to dive into a world of global content with local flavor? Download Daily8 app today from your preferred app store and start exploring.
app-storeplay-store