Australia's defence spending creating a ‘paper ADF', Australian Strategic Policy Institute warns

Herald Sun

29-05-2025

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Australia must boost its immediate readiness to go to war or risk having a 'paper ADF', a leading defence think tank warns.
In a report published on Thursday, the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) said that while Labor was spending on longer-term projects it was not pumping nearly enough cash into keeping Australia combat-ready in the near term.
The report, authored by former Home Affairs deputy secretary Marc Ablong, called for 'defence funding to be increased to reflect the reality of the threats facing Australia'.
It said that while the Albanese government 'claims to have made a 'generational investment in Australia's defence', that investment has been put off for another generation', pointing out that the bulk of the billions pledged by Labor would not kick in until after 2029.
The Australian Strategic Policy Institute is warning that Australia needs to boost its defence readiness. Picture: NewsWire / Handout
With the Albanese government itself predicting a major global conflict by 2034 and analysts warning of a US-China conflict before 2030, Mr Ablong argued that the money was not flowing fast enough.
'While consistency can often be a virtue, it reveals a business‑as‑usual approach to a world now in crisis and conflict,' the report said.
'The rhetoric recognising the threats isn't translating into action to deal with the threats, meaning the government continues to deprioritise the readiness and sustainability of the current force‑in‑being with the largest spending increases on capability sustainment tied to the F‑35 Lightning force ($190m) and Collins‑class submarines ($235m).'
It warned that the 'Indo‑Pacific region is undeniably an epicentre of a burgeoning rearmament'.
'Australia is a part of that rearmament, although others are moving much faster than us,' the report said.
'The current military correlation of forces between Australia and our region is growing.
'Consequentially, a central concern we express in this report is the gap between strategic intent and tangible capability delivery.'
Mr Ablong wrote that the 'timelines for major acquisitions', such as AUKUS, 'extend well into the next decade and beyond' and did little to deal with immediate threats.
'While those future capabilities are strategically important, they offer little immediate enhancement, thus creating a 'paper ADF' that lacks readiness for near‑term conflict scenarios,' the report said.
'That prioritisation of future over current readiness contributes to a hollowing out of the force, in which personnel shortages and limited munitions stockpiles exacerbate sustainability concerns.'
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has rejected the report's claims. Picture: NewsWire / Martin Ollman
Anthony Albanese has hit back at the report, saying ASPI needed to 'have a look at themselves as well and the way that they conduct themselves in debates'.
'We've got considerable additional investment going into defence – $10bn,' the Prime Minister told the ABC.
'We're lifting up our defence expenditure up to 2.4 per cent of GDP, we're investing in assets and our capability.
'We're also investing in our relationships in the region, that's very important as well.'
Mr Albanese said the think tank was 'run by people who've been in a position to make a difference in the past as part of former governments', adding that it was 'predictable, frankly'.
'What we're doing is getting on with the defence assets and providing the investment for those assets to be upgraded,' he said.
Originally published as Australia's defence spending creating a 'paper ADF', think tank warns