Asteroid Impact Chances Increase, This Time For The Moon
In the pantheon of apocalyptic science fiction stories, the catastrophic asteroid impact is a well-known trope. Another intriguing variant involves a collision with a moon that then collides (or breaks up and collides) with some inhabited Earth-like world.
Earlier this year the asteroid 2024 YR4 seemed to present a small but non-zero chance of smashing into our planet. The space rock isn't big enough to take out a planet, but it could lay waste to a very unlucky city. Fortunately, by late February, new observations of the object made it clear it posed no material threat to us after all.
However, the latest observations from the James Webb Space Telescope have revealed that 2024 YR4 is even larger than previously estimated (roughly the size of a 10-story building), and also upped its chances of impacting the moon on Dec. 22, 2032.
Using observations from Webb and other telescopes, scientists from the Center for Near Earth Object Studies at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory increased the odds of a lunar blast from 1.7 percent as of late February to 3.8%.
'There is still a 96.2% chance that the asteroid will miss the Moon,' NASA reassures in a statement. 'In the small chance that the asteroid were to impact, it would not alter the Moon's orbit.'
This asteroid, despite being sizable enough to do damage on the ground in the case of an impact, is unlikely to send any debris from the moon on a collision course with Earth. Much more energy would be required to overcome the moon's escape velocity, even though it is only about a fifth that of Earth's.
However, an impact on the moon could be more disruptive to potential operations on or around the moon, which could be underway by 2032.
An illustration of an Artemis moon mission.
NASA
NASA's Artemis program is currently aiming to establish a human presence on the surface of the moon and in cislunar space in the coming years, and before the potential (but still unlikely) impact.
"Should the asteroid impact the moon, the Earth-moon system could be clouded with particles detached from the moon and the asteroid, potentially threatening the human space infrastructure and operations," explains University of Helsinki Professor Karri Muinonen.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 is quickly moving too far away from Earth for most observatories on the ground to observe, but Webb is scheduled to take a last glance in a few weeks.
Astronomers will be able to take another close look at the asteroid during its next fly by Earth in 2028.
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