Latest news with #CenterforNearEarthObjectStudies
Yahoo
08-04-2025
- Science
- Yahoo
Scientists think 'city killer' asteroid could now hit the moon
An asteroid that could be up to 220 feet wide will now miss Earth - but the chances of the space rock slamming into the moon have doubled. Asteroid 2024 YR4 briefly had a small chance of hitting our planet in 2032, but NASA has now reduced this chance to 0.004%. However, the chances of the asteroid hitting the moon have doubled, from 1.7% to 3.8% based on new readings from the James Webb Space Telescope. NASA said, 'Experts at NASA's Center for Near Earth Object Studies at the agency's Jet Propulsion Laboratory have updated 2024 YR4's chance of impacting the moon on Dec. 22, 2032 from 1.7% as of late February to 3.8% based on the Webb data and observations from ground-based telescopes. "There is still a 96.2% chance that the asteroid will miss the moon.' Recent telescope observations have reduced the likely size of the asteroid, but it's still the size of a ten-storey building. According to the latest data from the James Webb telescope, the asteroid is believed to be 174-220 feet across. If it had hit the Earth, the energy released at its impact would have been similar to a nuclear weapon - leading many to brand it a 'city killer'. So what would happen if it hit the moon? Obviously there are no cities to get in the way, but what is likely is it would just create a crater. The moon's surface is dotted with evidence of thousands of such craters. Crucially, according to NASA, it would not alter our satellite's orbit. But the impact could pose other issues, said astronomer and science writer David Whitehouse. Whitehouse told Yahoo News: "It would be scientifically fascinating, but it would be a disaster on many fronts. "The problem is that although a lot of the impact falls back to the moon very quickly, a lot of it wouldn't, and it would be dispersed into space and dispersed into the moon's orbit. And that would affect people travelling to the moon, and also eventually would start to rain down back and rain down on the earth. So it would affect satellites. It would increase the debris hazard considerably in orbit." 'Many' scientists are hoping that YR4 WILL hit the moon, simply so that they can observe its impact, the head of the European Space Agency's Planetary Defense Office said. Richard Moissl, head of the ESA's planetary defense office, said, "The possibility of getting a chance for an observation of a sizeable moon impact is indeed an interesting scenario from a scientific point of view.' The information from the impact could be 'valuable for planetary defence purposes', he said. Astronomers will target the James Webb Space Telescope at YR24 to get better readings of its position and size. The asteroid is currently heading away from Earth and it will pass out of view after May, and it will not be possible to get readings until it is on its return journey. The asteroid is more than 50 metres (164ft) in diameter, which means that it would have triggered planetary defence missions if there was more than a 1% chance of it hitting Earth in 2032. Among these options would be using a nuclear weapon to nudge the space rock into a different orbit. The 'nuclear option' would be most likely to be used with larger asteroids more than half a mile in diameter. Another option would be to use a large laser to evaporate the asteroid's surface, driving it onto a different trajectory, as suggested in a paper from the University of California, Santa Barbara. By far the most likely option to be used is an 'impactor' - a spacecraft that would be flown into the asteroid to knock it off course, said Whitehouse. NASA and the ESA have conducted research into how the trajectory of an asteroid can be changed by ramming it with a spacecraft. In September 2022, NASA's Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission impacted the asteroid Dimorphos. The collision changed Dimorphos's orbit successfully, and now scientists hope to study the space rock close-up to understand how to launch similar missions. The ESA's Hera spacecraft will enter the orbit of Dimorphos (and its larger companion Didymos) in October 2026. By analysing the results of DART, Hera will offer information which could be used to repeat the feat with other objects.
Yahoo
07-04-2025
- Science
- Yahoo
Experts say 'city killer' asteroid will miss Earth, but could still hit moon
Once declared to be on a collision course with Earth, an asteroid dubbed a 'city killer' is now expected to miss the planet. The moon, however, might not be spared. Asteroid 2024 YR4 was first detected in December 2024. Experts believed there was a 3% chance it would hit the Earth in 2032, but there's now a near-zero chance of that happening, NASA wrote in a recent update. Concerns about the so-called city killer were high earlier this year. Astronomer Andrew Rivkin conducted a five-hour observation of the space rock and found it might make impact on the moon, the New York Post reported. There's a 3.8% chance the asteroid, about the size of a football field, will hit the moon on Dec. 22, 2032, up from 1.7% in late February, based on data collected using the James Webb Space Telescope. There is a 96.2% chance the asteroid will miss entirely; however, if it were to make contact with the moon, it wouldn't alter the moon's orbit, experts at NASA's Center for Near Earth Object Studies said. 'Part of our motivation to continue observing this asteroid specifically is to figure out, is that number gonna go up or is it also going to go to zero,' Rivkin said. Previous reports regarding the asteroid's size were inaccurate, the Post reported, citing the New Scientist, adding the correct measurement is 60 metres or so. Scientists will study the asteroid with the Webb telescope again in May. After that, the giant space rock will disappear into the outer solar system for the next several years. Asteroid will likely hit Earth – but not for at least 100 years Aussie man thought he found gold but it was something rarer
Forbes
03-04-2025
- Science
- Forbes
Asteroid Impact Chances Increase, This Time For The Moon
In the pantheon of apocalyptic science fiction stories, the catastrophic asteroid impact is a well-known trope. Another intriguing variant involves a collision with a moon that then collides (or breaks up and collides) with some inhabited Earth-like world. Earlier this year the asteroid 2024 YR4 seemed to present a small but non-zero chance of smashing into our planet. The space rock isn't big enough to take out a planet, but it could lay waste to a very unlucky city. Fortunately, by late February, new observations of the object made it clear it posed no material threat to us after all. However, the latest observations from the James Webb Space Telescope have revealed that 2024 YR4 is even larger than previously estimated (roughly the size of a 10-story building), and also upped its chances of impacting the moon on Dec. 22, 2032. Using observations from Webb and other telescopes, scientists from the Center for Near Earth Object Studies at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory increased the odds of a lunar blast from 1.7 percent as of late February to 3.8%. 'There is still a 96.2% chance that the asteroid will miss the Moon,' NASA reassures in a statement. 'In the small chance that the asteroid were to impact, it would not alter the Moon's orbit.' This asteroid, despite being sizable enough to do damage on the ground in the case of an impact, is unlikely to send any debris from the moon on a collision course with Earth. Much more energy would be required to overcome the moon's escape velocity, even though it is only about a fifth that of Earth's. However, an impact on the moon could be more disruptive to potential operations on or around the moon, which could be underway by 2032. An illustration of an Artemis moon mission. NASA NASA's Artemis program is currently aiming to establish a human presence on the surface of the moon and in cislunar space in the coming years, and before the potential (but still unlikely) impact. "Should the asteroid impact the moon, the Earth-moon system could be clouded with particles detached from the moon and the asteroid, potentially threatening the human space infrastructure and operations," explains University of Helsinki Professor Karri Muinonen. Asteroid 2024 YR4 is quickly moving too far away from Earth for most observatories on the ground to observe, but Webb is scheduled to take a last glance in a few weeks. Astronomers will be able to take another close look at the asteroid during its next fly by Earth in 2028.
Yahoo
03-04-2025
- Science
- Yahoo
NASA catches a glimpse of 'city-killer' asteroid before it disappears until 2028
Astronomers have gotten a glimpse of the "city-killer" asteroid before it disappears until 2028, according to NASA. The space rock, called 2024 YR4, was previously given up to a 3.1% chance of striking Earth in December 2032, but astronomers have since eliminated the possibility of a strike at that time based on further observations. MORE: 3.5 billion-year-old crater created by meteorite impact found in Australia, scientists say Astronomers are watching 2024 YR4 closely, trying to learn everything they can before it disappears from view by mid-April, Kelly Fast, a planetary defense officer at NASA, told ABC News earlier this year. Its unique elongated orbit takes the asteroid around the sun and into Earth's vicinity before it ventures far out between the orbits of Mars and Jupiter and out of sight, Fast said. NASA's Center for Near Earth Object Studies used the James Webb Space Telescope -- the largest, most powerful telescope ever launched into space -- to capture photos of the asteroid, the space agency announced on Wednesday. New infrared observations indicate that the asteroid measures between 174 feet and 220 feet in diameter -- about the size of the 10-story building, according to NASA. While it is not forecast to strike Earth in 2032, the asteroid now has a 1.7% probability of hitting the moon at that time, the space agency said. The space rock was first discovered on Dec. 27 by astronomers monitoring the ATLAS telescope at the University of Hawaii, Fast said. MORE: Chance of asteroid striking Earth in the next decade rises to 3.1%, NASA says In the past, even when the asteroid passed through the inner solar system, it didn't always come close to where Earth was at the time, which is why it was only recently discovered, Fast said. The asteroid has been dubbed a "city-killer" due to its size and potential to cause major destruction. It is large enough to cause localized damage were it to strike a populated city, Fast said. In 1908, the similarly sized Tunguska asteroid flattened trees over an area of about 1,250 miles after it exploded in the skies over Siberia. NASA has been tasked by Congress with locating asteroids larger than 450 feet in length, which are large enough to do "regional" damage in the event of a strike, Fast said. MORE: There's a small chance an asteroid could hit Earth within the next decade, says NASA The asteroid currently has a 1.1% chance of striking Earth on Dec. 22, 2047, according to NASA. More than a 2% chance of an asteroid strike is "uncommon," Davide Farnocchia, a navigation engineer with NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, told ABC News in February. But astronomers will continue to monitor the asteroid closely. "We don't want to take any chances," Farnocchia said. NASA catches a glimpse of 'city-killer' asteroid before it disappears until 2028 originally appeared on
Yahoo
03-04-2025
- Science
- Yahoo
NASA says asteroid 2024 YR4 size of a 10-story building; increases chances of moon impact
April 3 (UPI) -- NASA said that an asteroid previously believed to be destined for Earth is the size of a 10-story building and is now more likely to make impact with the moon. Designated as near-Earth asteroid 2024 YR4, both NASA observers and members of the worldwide planetary defense community felt at first that the object, said to be 174-220 feet in size, might hit the Earth in 2032. Those same people have now decided it likely won't strike the Earth. "While earlier in the year asteroid 2024 YR4 posed a potential future impact threat to Earth in 2032, by the end of February," the agency had since lowered "the risk of Earth impact" to "near-zero." However, the team at NASA's Center for Near Earth Object Studies at the agency's Jet Propulsion Laboratory also say that they "have updated 2024 YR4's chance of impacting the moon," in 2032, "from 1.7% as of late February to 3.8%," based on observations taken from both NASA's James Webb Space Telescope and from ground-based telescopes." They also say about the object that "In the small chance that the asteroid was to impact, it would not alter the moon's orbit." NASA's experts also think that by mid-April, "asteroid 2024 YR4 will be too far and faint to be observed by ground-based telescopes," but the Webb telescope will be able to start to observe the asteroid again in May.
