Business confidence falls 9 points as US tariff turmoil takes a toll
'The month of April was punctuated by global market turmoil precipitated by US tariff announcements,' said ANZ chief economist Sharon Zollner.
'We can divide
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a day ago
- Newsroom
Another rate cut expected this week, but then what?
This week's latest Monetary Policy Statement from the Reserve Bank is pretty much a foregone conclusion: another 25 point cut in the OCR is on the way. Certainly all the recent data points in that direction and though the domestic economy continues to falter we're probably near 'peak pessimism', according to ANZ economists, though the RBNZ still has plenty more work to do.
RNZ News
5 days ago
- RNZ News
ASB joins other major banks on 4.79% mortgage interest rate
ASB joins the list of major banks who have dropped their one-year fixed mortgage interest rate to 4.79 percent. Photo: Unsplash/ Li Rezaei All the main banks have now dropped their rates, ahead of an expected 25 basis point cut in the official cash rate next week. ASB said on Friday it was joining Westpac, ANZ, BNZ and Kiwibank with a one-year rate of 4.79 percent. It will drop its one-year and 18-month rates to 4.79 percent, its six-month rate to 5.12 percent and its two-year rate to 4.89 percent. ASB's executive general manager of personal banking Adam Boyd said tens of thousands of customers were due to refix on to lower rates in 2025. "By Christmas, around 90 percent of customers holding a fixed home loan are likely to be on a rate less than 6 percent." ASB also reduced some term deposit rates by between 5 and 15 basis points. Its economists are forecasting a 25bp cut to the OCR next week, to 3 percent. They said the central bank was likely to maintain a bias toward more easing but would make this conditional on medium-term inflation looking as though it would remain in the target band. There was extra uncertainty at play, they said. But they said with few other catalysts that would kickstart a domestic economic recovery, it was likely that the OCR would drop below 3 percent by the end of the year. ANZ economists agreed the big focus next week would be on the OCR forecast and hints about where it would go from here. "The big quarterly data (CPI, GDP, unemployment) since the last OCR review in July have been much as the RBNZ expected (or stronger) but the timelier growth indicators have been very soft. "We've also seen some mixed inflation data. All up, a ready reckoner approach justifies perhaps 10-15bp off the OCR track, with a trough of 2.7 percent to 2.75 percent implying one more 25bp cut. "Like in May, we expect the RBNZ will publish a track that is non-committal about the timing of that. "Our big-picture view is that we expect the RBNZ to pivot more dovish and ultimately cut the OCR to 2.5 percent as the soft high-frequency data increasingly shows up in the hard data. "But next week is likely too soon for a lurch in that direction." Sign up for Ngā Pitopito Kōrero , a daily newsletter curated by our editors and delivered straight to your inbox every weekday.
RNZ News
6 days ago
- RNZ News
Another major bank cuts its one-year fixed home loan rate to 4.79 percent
There could be room for rates to fall even more. (File photo) Photo: RNZ Another bank is cutting its one-year fixed home loan rate to 4.79 percent - and one economist says there might more room for rates to fall. ANZ and BNZ earlier this week cut their one-year special rates to that level, and they have now been joined by Kiwibank. Kiwibank also cut its two-year rate to 4.89 percent, the same as ANZ, and its six-month rate to 5.09 percent. Infometrics chief forecaster Gareth Kiernan said markets had already priced in two more cuts to the official cash rate. "So moves by the Reserve Bank along those lines are unlikely to have much effect on fixed mortgage rates. Infometrics chief forecaster Gareth Kiernan. (File photo) Photo: RNZ / Rebekah Parsons-King "Perhaps when the second cut is all but locked in, it could knock the one-year rate down by another five or 10 basis points - reflecting market certainty around the cut, as opposed to the high probability currently expected for the cut." He said if the bank came out with a more "dovish" statement and a lower OCR track at next week's Monetary Policy Statement, pointing towards the possibility of the OCR going down to 2.5 percent this could be reflected in swap rates and fixed mortgage rates in coming weeks." Kiwibank was also reducing its term deposit rates by between 10 and 15 basis points. At the interest rate peak, the average new one-year special rate was 7.3 percent. On a $500,000 30-year mortgage, at that interest rate payments would have been $791 a week. At 4.79 percent, they drop to $605 a week. Sign up for Ngā Pitopito Kōrero , a daily newsletter curated by our editors and delivered straight to your inbox every weekday.
