The Last Say: Tips, inside mail, market movers for today's racing

Herald Sun

a day ago

Tips, market movers, inside mail … Ray Thomas brings you all the info you need to back a winner on Rosebud day at Rosehill, PB Lawrence Stakes Day at Caulfield plus Doomben, Morphettville Parks and more.
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Private Eye, the winner of more than $12 million prizemoney, finally gets back to the races for the Group 2 $300,000 PB Lawrence Stakes (1400m) at Caulfield on Saturday.
Trainer Joe Pride had Private Eye ready to go for the Missile Stakes over 1200m last week but scratched the horse the day before and instead trialled him at Warwick Farm.
As it turned out, the Missile Stakes meeting at Randwick was washed out and Pride admitted last weekend that Private Eye was ready for a 1400m race anyway.
So, Private Eye finds himself at Caulfield for the first time in his 43-start career but the eight-year-old gelding remains a force at racing's top level as he showed with his very good first-up third in the Group 1 Stradbroke Handicap just two months ago.
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There has been good support for Private Eye in latest betting – but nothing like the sensational backing for the unbeaten Team Hayes-trained Scenic Point to win the Group 3 $200,000 Quezette Stakes (1100m).
Scenic Point opened with Ladbrokes at $3.90 but has firmed into $2.80 after some huge bets including $750 at $4.10, $1000 at $3.90, $720 at $3.80, $500 at $3.30, $1000 at $3.15, $540 at $2.85 and $1000 at $2.60, She is the most popular runner at the meeting with just over $18,000 invested. — Racenet (@RacenetTweets) August 15, 2025
At Rosehill Gardens, the track will be very heavy for the first Sydney stakes race of the season, the Listed $200,000 The Rosebud (1100m) in which the Michael Freedman-trained Pallaton is a firming favourite at $2.30 favourite after some brilliant recent barrier trials.
In an unusual twist, the Team Hawkes-trained Theblade was entered for Caulfield, Rosehill and Doomben today.
The Hawkes stable landed on the Class 3 Plate (1200m) at Doomben as the best option for Theblade who has drawn well in barrier six and is into $3 favouritism.
Meanwhile, NSW's wet winter has claimed another race meeting with the Kembla Grange races postponed when the track was deemed unsuitable for racing today.
■ ■ ■ ■ ■ TRACK CONDITIONS
ROSEHILL GARDENS
Weather: Cool, mostly cloudy day and a forecast top temperature of 18c.
Track: Heavy (9).
Rail: 1m out.
CAULFIELD
Weather: Cold, partly cloudy day with a forecast top temperature of 12c.
Track: Soft (7).
Rail: 9m out.
DOOMBEN
Weather: Warm, sunny day with a forecast top temperature of 25c.
Track: Good (4).
Rail: 0.5m out.
MORPHETTVILLE PARKS
Weather: Cool, cloudy day with increasing showers and a forecast top temperature of 14c.
Track: Soft (5).
Rail: 9m out, 6m out remainder.
■ ■ ■ ■ ■ BE WARY
Rosehill's track is Heavy (9) but it won't be the bottomless surface we had at the same course two weeks ago. Rosehill played quite fairly that day although it was difficult to make up ground. The rail was out 4m the last time we raced here but has been shifted to 1m out for today's meeting. It is expected jockeys will steer away from the inside in the straight. Caulfield's rail is out 9m, which is a shift from the 4m position three weeks ago, and the track is a soft 6. There are big fields for the opening four events so watch closely for any track bias.
■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ROSEHILL GARDENS TIPS
BEST BET: Race 8 No.10 CAPTAIN FURAI was first-up over the Rosehill 1400m two weeks ago when he settled outside the leader Elson Boy into the straight then took the lead at the 300m. He looked set to score but the lack of recent racing told in extremely heavy conditions and Elson Boy kicked back underneath to win. Captain Furai will be better for that run, he has won second-up previously, he excels on heavy tracks where he has not missed a top two finish in four attempts winning twice, and he has James McDonald to ride. The one to beat.
THE NEXT BEST: Race 4 No.9 AMREEKIYAH is a promising mare by unbeaten US Triple Crown hero Justify who has made the perfect start to her race career, winning each of her three starts. Her two provincials wins back in autumn were good without being spectacular but she was very impressive first-up at Canterbury when she unleashed a brilliant finishing sprint to win easily. Amreekiyah handled then soft 7 track with ease first-up so she is as good a chance as any of handling the heavy Rosehill surface. She's suited getting back on a bigger track and can maintain her unbeaten record.
VALUE BET: Race 7 No.3 PALMETTO isn't a noted first-up performer but he has never been trialling better than he has leading into today's race. He's won two deep Group-class trials at Randwick in recent weeks, defeating Beiwacht and Autumn Glow in the first then comfortably holding off Pericles and Lady Shenandoah in the most recent trial. The 1400m is short of Palmetto's best but he's a superior wet-tracker and the heavy surface is the key to his chances. Palmetto's worth having a saver around $8.
THE WHISPER: Race 5 No.4 PALLATON was the early Golden Slipper favourite last season after an exceptional debut win but his form tapered away with two unplaced efforts in autumn. But the Michael Freedman-trained colt has been brilliant in two recent Randwick barrier trial wins, darting through to score over 740m then his eye-catching effort over 1044m when he zoomed home wide out to score comfortably. Promising three-year-old who is a deserved Rosebud favourite.
• EXPERT TIPS: Professional punter James Molony's race-by-race tips and analysis for Rosehill Gardens
■ ■ ■ ■ ■ CAULFIELD TIPS
BEST BET: Race 4 No.7 STYLISH is a much-improved five-year-old mare by Lonhro with three wins from five starts this winter. She was particularly impressive last start finishing strongly to score at Flemington. She is at her best over 1400m and is very effective on soft tracks. Champion jockey Blake Shinn rides and the mare has drawn in the middle of the field so should get the right run with cover. There's a lot to like about Stylish today.
NEXT BEST: Race 9 No.11 REVELARE developed into a winning machine over summer with five consecutive wins from 1600m to 2000m. He hasn't raced since March and is first-up at 1600m but he's had the benefit of two recent Ballarat jump-outs including a 1400m win late last month. Drawn ideally in barrier two so he won't have to do any work early and be in a position to challenge from the turn. Followers of this column would have cleaned up on Revelare last preparation and although he has never won first-up previously, both attempts were over 1400m.
VALUE BET: Race 8 No.7 SEPALS faces his big test resuming at weight-for-age in the Group 2 Lawrence Stakes. He showed promise in his debut preparation winning three of his five starts before finishing fourth as favourite in the Group 1 Australian Guineas. But it is worth noting Sepals' best effort was his dominant, runaway win in the Group 3 Hayes Stakes over 1400m at Flemington when the track was rated a soft 7. Sepals will enjoy the give in the track at Caulfield today and despite drifting to $10, he's good each way value.
THE WHISPER: Race 6 No.4 SCENIC POINT is unbeaten in two starts including the Listed Redoute's Choice Stakes over the Caulfield 1100m course back last season. She's looked the part in two recent Flemington jump-outs and the Team Hayes-trained filly can control the race from the inside barrier. Significantly, Scenic Point has been sensationally backed to win the Quezette Stakes.
• EXPERT TIPS: Brad Waters' best bets for Caulfield, plus quaddie picks and race-by-race analysis
■ ■ ■ ■ ■ TAB FIXED ODDS BIG BETS AND MARKET MOVERS
ROSEHILL GARDENS
Race 1: Monkhana $8-$4.60, King Ratel $15-$7, Prety Tavi $15-$9
Race 2: Kranich $8-$5.50, Adolphus $8-$6
Race 3: Karinska $15-$11, Wisnierska $51-$26
Race 4: Amreekiyah $5-$3.70, Pippie Beach $11-$6.50
Race 5: Pallaton $2.70-$2.40, Grand Prairie $8-$6.5
Race 6: Pure Alpha $8-$6.50, So You Are $15-$9
Race 7: War Eternal $6-$3.40, Our Gold Hope $11-$8, Ang Pow $15-$13
Race 8: Captain Furai $6-$4.20, Denman Star $15, $9
Race 9: Polyglot $4.20-$3.70, Regimental Colours $13-$8.50, Useapin $16-$9.50
Race 10: Bunker Hut $10-$5.50, Disneck $18-$10
■ ■ ■ ■ ■ LADBROKE BIG BETS AND MARKET MOVERS
ROSEHILL GARDENS
Race 1: King Ratel $13-$8.50 including bets of $266 and $200 at $9.25, $120 at $9, $120 at $8.50, Convergent $6-$5.50 with a bet of $500 at $6), Monkhana $5.50-$4.20 with a bet of $445 at $5.50
Race 2: Kranich $9-$5.50 with a bet of $250 at $9, Ninja $2.05-$1.90
Race 3: Karinska $11-$10 after a bet of $250 at $11
Race 4: Pippie Beach $9.50-$6.50
Race 5: Skyhook $4.80-$3.60 after bets of $525 at $4.80, $590 at $4.40
Race 6: Hasty Honey $10-$9.50 after a bet of $220 at $10, Pure Alpha $7-$4.80 after a bet of $330 at $7, She's Unusual $500 at $8.25
Race 7: Adelaide River $10-$8.50 after bets of $510 at $9.75, $2000 at $8.50, War Eternal $4.20-$3.50 after three bets of $400 at $4.20, Semillion $81-$26, Ang Pow $34-$12 after bets of $100 at $37, $405 at $18, $500 at $16, $145 at $15, $155 at $14
Race 8: Captain Furai $7-$5 after bets of $250 and $200 at $7, $360 at $6.50, Denman Star $11-$19 with bets of $150 at $11, $220 a $10
Race 9: Bonita Queen $9-$8.50 after a bet of $220 at $9, Ravenclaw $10-$8, Polyglot $500 at $5, Useapin $18-$10
Race 10: Perfumist $5-$6-$5.50 after bets of $2000 at $6, $250 at $5.75, $445 at $5.50
CAULFIELD
Race 1: Verdoux $5-$3.50 with a bet of $525 at $4.80, Shadhaver $200 at $10.25, Behaviour $200 at $11
Race 2: Skippers Canyon $5.50-$3.60 after bets of $875 at $5.50, $390 at $5.25, $2000, $2000, $400 and $350 at $5, $740 at $3.70, Boga Legend $165 at $13
Race 3: Gala Queen $4.80-$3.80 with bets of $525 at $4.80, $500 at $4, $749 and $600 at $3.70
Race 4: Freak Of Nature $150 at $18
Race 5: Tycoon Star $200 at $6, $500 at $5.50, Shining Smile $665 at $4, Hay Street $12-$7.50 with a bet of $180 at $12
Race 6: Scenic Point $3.90-$2.80 after bets of $750 at $4.10, $1000 at $3.90, $720 at $3.80, $500 at $3.30, $1000 at $3.15, $540 at $2.85, $1000 at $2.60, Ferivia $12-$9 with bets of $230 at $12.50, $180 and $140 at $12, $150 at $11
Race 7: Royal Insignia $350 at $6, $500 and $315 at $5.50, Pop Award $330, $215 and $200 at $7
Race 8: Private Eye $3.70-$2.90, Evaporate $500 at $4.15
Race 9: Revelare $4.80-$4 after two bets of $525 a $4.80, King's Valley $11-$7.50 after a $200 bet at $11
• LAURIE'S LONGSHOTS: Laurie Sainsbury says $51 roughie 'worth a throw at the stumps'
■ ■ ■ ■ ■
INTERSTATE MAIL
Doomben Race 1 No.4 DRACENA
Doomben Race 6 No.15 THEBLADE
Morphettville Parks Race 3 No.1 BEAST MODE
Morphettville Parks Race 4 No.6 LAVISH THINKER
• EXPERT TIPS: Graeme Carey's best bets, race-by-race tips, analysis and quaddie picks for Doomben
• EXPERT TIPS: Heath Pope's $10 value play for Morphettville Parks; Aaron Mills' best bets for Belmont
#Good luck today and I hope you back plenty of winners
Originally published as The Last Say: Tips, inside mail, market movers for today's racing Horse Racing
Racenet form analyst Chris Vernuccio's best bet is in the feature Group 2 PB Lawrence Stakes as he gives his top picks and best lay at Caulfield on Saturday. Opinion
Form analyst Shayne O'Cass provides his best bets and race-by-race analysis for Kembla Grange plus tips for Narrandera and Gilgandra on Saturday.