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Time of India
34 minutes ago
- Time of India
Euro-fuelled dollar surge adds to headwinds facing rupee
The Indian rupee is likely to open weaker on Tuesday, weighed down by a jump in the dollar index following a steep decline in the euro, as investors digested the implications of the recent US-EU trade deal. An uptick in oil prices , coupled with persistent foreign portfolio outflows , also poses challenges for the rupee, which has already declined about 1% so far this month. Explore courses from Top Institutes in Please select course: Select a Course Category Data Analytics Degree Operations Management Artificial Intelligence Healthcare healthcare MBA Technology CXO Product Management PGDM MCA Data Science Cybersecurity Others Design Thinking Leadership Project Management Public Policy Data Science Digital Marketing Management Finance others Skills you'll gain: Data Analysis & Visualization Predictive Analytics & Machine Learning Business Intelligence & Data-Driven Decision Making Analytics Strategy & Implementation Duration: 12 Weeks Indian School of Business Applied Business Analytics Starts on Jun 13, 2024 Get Details The 1-month non-deliverable forward indicated the rupee will open in the 86.75-86.77 range versus the U.S. dollar, compared with 86.6650 in the previous session. The dollar index rose 1% on Monday, while the euro slumped, as investors sobered up to the terms of the trade deal between the European Union and the United States. "Once markets absorbed the details, sentiment flipped from the reality that tariffs would still increase to 15% with the Trump administration still maintaining tariffs as a leverage tool," analysts at DBS said in a note. Live Events Asian currencies were mostly nursing modest declines on the day and regional equities were largely weaker. India's benchmark equity index, the Nifty 50 , was poised to open little changed but expected to face pressure on diminished hopes of an interim trade deal with the United States, sustained foreign outflows and tepid quarterly earnings. Foreign investors net sold nearly $700 million worth of Indian stocks on Monday, according to provisional exchange data. Traders reckon that the rupee is biased to trend lower in the near term, with support expected around the 86.80 and 87 levels. Whether the Reserve Bank of India steps in firmly to cap rupee deprecation around the 87 mark would also be key to watch, a trader at a foreign bank said. Meanwhile, crude oil prices rose to touch a 10-day high and were last hovering around $70 per barrel after U.S. President Donald Trump said he was reducing the 50-day deadline he gave Russia over its war in Ukraine to 10-12 days. KEY INDICATORS: ** One-month non-deliverable rupee forward at 86.90; onshore one-month forward premium at 13.75 paise ** Dollar index at 98.6 ** Brent crude futures at $70.1 per barrel ** Ten-year U.S. note yield at 4.4% ** As per NSDL data, foreign investors sold a net $164mln worth of Indian shares on Jul. 25 ** NSDL data shows foreign investors sold a net $19.2mln worth of Indian bonds on Jul. 25
Time of India
an hour ago
- Time of India
Gold price prediction today: Where are gold rates headed on July 29, 2025 & ahead of Donald Trump's tariff deadline?
Gold price prediction: Spot gold is expected to trade with a slight bearish tilt unless US-China trade tensions surface up once again. (AI image) Gold price prediction: Gold prices are trading within a range due to fall in demand for safe haven assets. As the Donald Trump administration finalises trade deals, global economic uncertainties are somewhat ebbing, leading to gold prices declining. Praveen Singh, Senior Fundamental Research Analyst- Currencies and Commodities at Mirae Asset Sharekhan shares his views on gold price outlook and what levels investors should watch out for: Gold Price Performance: On July 28, spot gold extended its decline to the fourth straight day as the European Union (EU) and the US announced that a trade deal framework has been reached under which 70% of the EU exports to the US will be subjected to 15% tariffs while reducing tariffs on some American goods to zero. In addition, the EU will buy huge amounts of US military equipment, invest fresh $600 billion in the US and purchase $750 billion of American energy products. Although the US-EU trade deal has removed some uncertainty in the markets and mitigated risks to the global economy to an extent, some of the EU officials have criticized the deal as a compromise as even a 15% tariff rate will have significant negative consequences for the European economy. Spot gold fell on reduced safe haven demand and a stronger US Dollar as the Euro tumbled on possible negative impacts of the deal on the Bloc's economy. The yellow metal fell nearly 0.35% in the week ending July 25; thus, posting its second straight weekly decline. The shiny metal at the time of writing was changing hands at $3314, down 0.68% for the day. The MCX October gold contract at Rs 98,400 was down around 0.35%. Trade developments: Following the deal with the EU, the effective US tariff rate stands at 16% currently, highest since the 1930s and six times the rate when Trump took office at the start of the year. The US and China began two-day trade negotiation talks in Stockholm Monday. Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng and US Treasury Secretary Bessent will lead their delegations as the agenda is expected to include extension of current tariff truce, fentanyl trafficking and China buying sanctioned Russian and Iranian oil. India-US trade deal agreement is yet to be reached. President Trump said that he may impose 15-20% tariffs on the nations which have yet to reach trade agreements. US Dollar and yields: The US Dollar Index extended its rebound for the third consecutive day on Monday as the Euro slumped nearly 1%. At the time of writing this article, the Index was noted at 98.41, up around 0.80% on the day. It is up nearly 1.60% in July, which is turning out to be its best month this year so far. Ten-year US yields that fell around 3 bps last week, were up by 2 bps on Monday as the yields hovered around 4.41%. Thirty-year yields at 4.95% were up 2 bps, too, though 2-year yields were steady at 3.93%. Geopolitics: US President Trump said that shortening his timeline for Russia to reach a truce to reach an agreement with Ukraine, he would make a new deadline of about 10 or 12 days and would announce it by Tuesday. According to defense analysts, the US, to signal Russia its commitment to the Europe' security, has likely moved nuclear weapons to the UK for the first time since 2008. ETF and COMEX gold stocks: As of July 25, total known global gold ETF holdings reached a fresh cycle-high 91.83 MOz -- highest since July 31, 2023-- as ETFs recorded net inflows for the fifth straight day. ETF holdings are up 10.77% YTD. COMEX gold stocks at 37.76 MOz are down over 16% from the record-high level of 45.072 MOz reached on April 4. Upcoming data and events: This week is going to be quite a busy week as a raft of crucial macroeconomic data will be released amid key events like the FOMC monetary policy decision and trade news flow as the August 1 tariff deadline approaches. Major US data on card include JOLTs job openings (June), Conference Board Consumer Confidence (July), ADP employment change (July), Q2 GDP, nonfarm payroll report (July), University of Michigan Sentiment (July final), ISM manufacturing (July) and June's core PCE price Index -- Fed's preferred gauge of inflation. Gold Price Outlook: As per Bloomberg, despite tariff concerns, nearly 82% of the S&P 500 companies that have reported their Q2 earnings so far have beaten profit forecasts, which makes Q2 to be on track for the best quarter in four years. A weaker Indian Rupee offers some support to the domestic gold prices. Downside may be limited ahead of the FOMC's monetary policy decision due on July 30. Concerns over US-Russia relations may lend some support to the metal. The Fed is expected to hold the overnight Fed Fund rate steady in the range of 4.25%-4.50%; however, investors look forward to clues on the future path of the policy, more so as the Fed Governor Waller has only recently supported the idea of beginning the rate cuts from July meeting itself. The US Dollar is likely to trade with a slight positive bias in the runup to the FOMC decision as markets digest the near-term implications of the EU-US trade deal . Investors monitor US-China trade talks as well. Spot gold is expected to trade with a slight bearish tilt unless US-China trade tensions surface up once again. Support is noted at $3292 Rs 97,700)/$3282 (Rs 97,400)/$3255 (Rs 96,600)/$3228 (Rs 95,800), while resistance comes in at $3343 (Rs 99,200)/$3375 (Rs 102,000). Selling into rallies with a tight stop-loss is the preferred strategy for very short-term trading. The US and China agreeing to extend their trade deal deadline may push the metal to $3255 in the short-term. Extension of the August 12 deadline is likely in the wake of the trade deals with Japan and the EU, though details of these deals are still awaited. Stay informed with the latest business news, updates on bank holidays and public holidays . AI Masterclass for Students. Upskill Young Ones Today!– Join Now
Time of India
an hour ago
- Time of India
Sensex falls over 100 pts, Nifty below 24,700 amid US trade deal jitters
Indian equity benchmarks experienced a decline for the fourth consecutive session, influenced by uncertainties surrounding a delayed interim trade agreement with the U.S. and continuous foreign fund outflows. Weak corporate earnings further contributed to the downward pressure. Investor sentiment remains fragile amidst geopolitical and economic concerns, with specific stocks like Bharat Electronics and Infosys facing losses. Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Experts View Global Markets Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads FII/DII Tracker Indian equity benchmarks opened lower for the fourth consecutive session on Tuesday, weighed down by uncertainty over a delayed interim trade deal with the United States, continued foreign fund outflows, and weak corporate 9:24 am, the BSE Sensex was down 117 points, or 0.15%, at 80,73, while the Nifty50 declined 36 points, or 0.15%, to 24, portfolio investors (FPIs) offloaded Indian equities worth Rs 6,081 crore ($700.92 million) on Monday, as per provisional data — their biggest single-day selling since May 30. The sharp outflow has heightened concerns about near-term market sentiment remains fragile ahead of the August 1 deadline set by U.S. President Donald Trump for progress on a trade agreement, with fears growing over potential geopolitical and economic repercussions from further early trade, Bharat Electronics (BEL), Eternal, Infosys, ICICI Bank, TCS, and HDFC Bank were among the top laggards on the Sensex, falling up to 2.5%. Meanwhile, Reliance Industries, Adani Ports, Tata Motors, and Power Grid opened in the the sectoral front, the Nifty IT index slipped 0.4%, weighed down by losses in Infosys, Wipro, and Coforge. In contrast, Nifty Metal, Realty, and Oil & Gas indices gained over 0.5%, offering some support to the the broader market, the Nifty Midcap 100 edged up 0.1%, while the Nifty Smallcap 100 declined 0.4%, reflecting mixed sentiment across individual stocks, Waaree Energies surged over 4% after the company reported an 89% YoY jump in consolidated net profit for Q1 FY26, coming in at Rs 745 crore compared to Rs 394 crore in the same period last year."There are more headwinds than tailwinds for the market now. The major issue weighing on markets is that the expected trade deal between India and the US has not happened so far and the probability of a deal before the August 1 deadline is becoming lower. President Trump's success in reaching deals with Japan and EU, which were advantageous for the US, may further make the US position harder on deal with India," said Dr. VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments."Sustained FII selling is impacting the market despite the DII buying. It is better to remain in a wait and watch mode," Vijayakumar Matalia, Derivative Analyst at Choice Broking, said, "After a negative opening, Nifty can find support at 24,600 followed by 24,500 and 24,300. On the higher side, 24,800 can be an immediate resistance, followed by 24,900 and 25,000."Asia shares eased on Tuesday while the euro nursed its losses as investors pondered the downside of the U.S.-EU trade deal and the reality that punishing tariffs were here to stay, with unwelcome implications for growth and Nikkei eased 0.8%, while Chinese blue chips fell 0.1%.European shares steadied after Monday's sell-off. EUROSTOXX 50 futures edged up 0.2%, while FTSE futures and DAX futures both added 0.1%. S&P 500 futures nudged up 0.1%, while Nasdaq futures added 0.2%.The selling from Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) extended for the sixth day as they sold equities worth Rs 6,082 crore on July 28, while Domestic institutional investors (DIIs) bought equities worth Rs 6,764 crore on the same day.
