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Globe and Mail
2 hours ago
- Globe and Mail
Fed's July minutes could reveal whether there was broader consensus for rate cuts
Last month's decision by the U.S. Federal Reserve to hold interest rates unchanged prompted dissents from two top central bankers who wanted to lower rates to guard against further weakening of the job market, and a readout of that two-day gathering on Wednesday could show whether their concerns had started to resonate with other policymakers, perhaps reinforcing expectations that borrowing-cost reductions could begin next month. Not even 48 hours after the conclusion of the July 29-30 Federal Open Market Committee meeting, data from the Labor Department appeared to validate the concerns of Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman and Governor Christopher Waller when it showed far fewer jobs than expected were created in July, the unemployment rate ticked up and the labor force participation rate slid to its lowest since late 2022. More unsettling, though, was an historic downward revision for estimates of employment in the previous two months. That revision erased more than a quarter of a million jobs thought to have been created in May and June and put a hefty dent in the prevailing narrative of a still-strong-job market. The event was so angering to President Donald Trump that he fired the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Opinion: The real reason behind the U.S. job revisions and why Trump's firing of the BLS commissioner is utter nonsense Data since then, however, has provided some fodder for the camp more concerned that Trump's aggressive tariff regime risks rekindling inflation to hold their ground against moving quickly to lower rates. The annual rate of underlying consumer inflation accelerated more than expected in July and was followed by an unexpectedly large jump in prices at the producer level. 'The minutes to the July Federal Open Market Committee will give a more nuanced sense of the split on the committee between the majority that voted to leave rates on hold and the dovish bloc led by dissenting Governors Miki Bowman and Christopher Waller,' analysts at Oxford Economics wrote ahead of the minutes release, set for 2 p.m. ET (1800 GMT) on Wednesday. 'However, the minutes are more stale than usual since they predate the revised payroll figures, which prompted a rapid repricing of the probability of a September rate cut.' Heading into the release of the minutes, CME's FedWatch tool assigns an 85 per cent probability of a quarter-point reduction in the Fed's policy rate from the current range of 4.25-to-4.50 per cent, where it has remained since December. Another reason the minutes may feel stale on arrival is they come just two days before a highly anticipated speech from Fed Chair Jerome Powell at the annual economic symposium near Jackson Hole, Wyoming, hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. Powell's keynote speech on Friday morning - set to be his last Jackson Hole address as Fed chair with his term expiring next May - could show whether Powell has joined ranks with those sensing the time has come for steps to shield the job market from further weakening or if he remains in league with those more wary of inflation in light of its moves away from the central bank's 2 per cent target. The lack of Fed rate reductions since Trump returned to the White House has agitated the Republican president, and he regularly lashes out at Powell for not engineering rate cuts. Trump is already in the process of screening possible successors to Powell and after the unexpected resignation earlier this month of one of the seven Board of Governors members, he has a chance to put his imprint on the Fed soon. He has nominated Council of Economic Advisers Chair Stephen Miran to fill the seat vacated by Adriana Kugler, a term that expires at the end of January. It is unclear whether Miran will win Senate confirmation before the Fed's September 16-17 meeting.


CBC
3 hours ago
- CBC
Windsor MP says public deserves answers on Gordie Howe bridge opening date
'Straight answer' needed on opening date of Gordie Howe bridge, says Windsor West MP 12 hours ago Duration 1:44 The MP who represents the area that includes the Gordie Howe International Bridge in Windsor, Ont., says the public deserves "a straight answer" on exactly when the new border crossing will be open to traffic. "This construction project is more than just a simple bridge, it's a vital economic lifeline for Windsor and Canada – given the volume of trade that flows through our border," Windsor West Conservative MP Harb Gill said in a statement to CBC News. "Our community deserves clear, consistent communication, not conflicting timelines." Despite promises the bridge will open this fall, a firm date has yet to be announced. The opening of the bridge will cap off a highly anticipated megaproject that has been in the works long before construction began in 2018. The bridge will provide a third vehicle crossing between Windsor, Ont., and Detroit, supporting a crucial corridor for Canada-U.S. trade. The cost for the six-lane, 2.5-kilometre crossing was estimated at $6.4 billion as of last year, with the Canadian side footing the bill. On Tuesday, the Windsor-Detroit Bridge Authority (WDBA) — the Crown corporation overseeing the project — said it's too early to provide an opening date but "work is progressing well towards our anticipated completion in fall 2025." "We have an estimated two per cent of construction work remaining," Heather Grondin, chief relations officer for the WDBA, said in a statement. Grondin added that the agency prioritizes infrastructure quality and employee safety. WATCH: What's the best view of the Gordie Howe bridge? What's the best view of the Gordie Howe International Bridge? 9 days ago CBC's Mike Evans went around Windsor, Ont., and neighbouring LaSalle snapping pictures of the Gordie Howe bridge to illustrate unique views of the crossing. He talks about his photo journey with CBC host Amy Dodge. Asked to respond to Gill's comment, the bridge authority said it's "committed to keeping everyone informed as we work toward the opening of the Gordie Howe International Bridge." Gill said he is awaiting a response from agencies and partners on the project regarding the opening date. "We believe that the people of Windsor-Essex deserve a straight answer," he said. CBSA confirms it's ready to take over port of entry The bridge authority has yet to address an April report by ratings agency S&P Global that suggested the opening date could be delayed until sometime in 2026. That report claimed there were delays in handing over ports of entry to border services agencies that could throw the timeline off course. However, a spokesperson for the Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA) told CBC News on Tuesday that handover of the Canadian port of entry facilities began early this year, and staff are beginning to occupy the space. "The CBSA will be ready to provide services at the Canadian port of entry by the opening date," CBSA spokesperson Jacqueline Roby said in an email. On the U.S. side, Customs and Border Protection did not provide comment. What work is happening now? Though the work at the bridge may be less visible following the completion of the bridge deck connecting the U.S. and Canadian sides last year, there's plenty of activity underway. According to the WDBA, the ongoing work includes: On the bridge itself, the installation of electrical, signage, lighting, fire suppression, lights and more. At the Canadian port of entry, interior work such as installing flooring, light fixtures and cabinets is taking place, as well as exterior work like landscaping and paving. Similar work is happening on the U.S. port of entry. On the U.S. side, the "final steps" are underway for the ramps connecting 1-75 to the U.S. port of entry, such as line painting and signage. Work is also ongoing on local road improvements on the U.S. side and five new pedestrian bridges. Building and testing of the technological systems at the crossing. For example, the technology that allows the toll booth to capture and read an RFID tag on a vehicle.


Globe and Mail
4 hours ago
- Globe and Mail
Musk quietly puts brakes on plans for new ‘America Party,' WSJ reports
Billionaire Elon Musk is quietly putting the brakes on plans to start his new political party, telling allies he wants to focus on his companies, the Wall Street Journal said on Tuesday, citing people with knowledge of the plans. Musk, without commenting further on the report, said in an X post: 'Nothing @WSJ says should ever be thought of as true'. Musk, the world's richest man, unveiled the 'America Party' in July after a public dispute with U.S. President Donald Trump on the tax cut and spending bill. Elon Musk says new U.S. political party formed, named 'America Party' Tesla slides as Musk's 'America Party' reignites investor angst He has recently been focused in part on maintaining ties with Vice President JD Vance, the paper said, and has acknowledged to associates that forming a political party would damage his relationship with Vance. Musk and his associates have told people close to Vance that the billionaire is considering using some of his financial resources to back Vance if he decides to run for president in 2028, the paper said. The CEO of Tesla and SpaceX spent nearly US$300-million in 2024 to help Trump and other Republicans get elected, exerting enormous influence in the first few weeks of Trump's term as head of newly created efficiency department DOGE. Reuters could not immediately verify the Journal report. Tesla and the White House did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment outside regular business hours. Vance, who had called for a truce following Musk's all-public feud with Trump, reaffirmed his position this month and said he had asked Musk to return to the Republican fold. Tesla shares are down more than 18 per cent this year after it posted in July its worst quarterly sales decline in more than a decade and profit that missed Wall Street targets, though its profit margin was better than many had feared. Musk also warned of 'a few rough quarters' after the end of support for electric vehicles by the Trump administration. Investors worry whether he will be able to devote enough time and attention to Tesla after locking horns with Trump over his ambitions for a new political party.