Trump says PM Netanyahu's trial should be dropped
Israeli President Issac Herzog has the power to pardon Netanyahu but has been quoted by Israeli media as saying that a pardon is "not currently on the table." He also said that "no such request had been made," according to the reports.
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The Advertiser
2 hours ago
- The Advertiser
How four-letter shock and awe can stop a war
This is a sample of The Echidna newsletter sent out each weekday morning. To sign up for FREE, go to Dropped from a great height it can penetrate the thickest structure before detonating inside. Without warning, it can deliver shock and awe, stopping everything in its tracks. It's neither bunker buster nor hypersonic missile. It doesn't come with a huge price tag and doesn't require a stealth bomber to get it to the target. Used sparingly, it can be the most effective weapon in an arsenal. It is, of course, the F-bomb. We saw how effective it can be when Donald Trump dropped it on a stunned media pack just before he left for the NATO conference in the Netherlands the other day. The whole world took notice because it was beamed live across multiple platforms. And after 12 days of intense missile exchanges, it shocked the leaders of Israel and Iran into stopping their violations of the ceasefire they'd just agreed to. One word stopped the war - for the moment anyway. By chance I caught it on the BBC live stream as it happened. Did he just say that? I asked myself before the anchor confirmed it by apologising for the profanity. In subsequent airings, Trump's F-bomb was bleeped out. A shame really. Sanitised, the video grab loses its punch. It dilutes the obvious, rage-inducing frustration the President was feeling, his impending victory lap at NATO threatened by the actions of Israel especially and Iran as well. At first, I thought the bleeping out sanctimonious. We live in an era in which our screens are so peppered with F and C-bombs we hardly notice them any more. But then perhaps bleeping out Trump's lent it even more power. The word that can't be said was the word that mattered most. I have no doubt Trump and presidents before (and after) routinely deploy these word bombs liberally behind closed doors. And I have no doubt Trump dropped a blizzard of them on Benjamin Netanyahu when he called him from Air Force One on the way to the NATO summit. It was described as an "exceptionally firm and direct" phone call. And if we're honest, who hasn't dropped an F-bomb or three in moments of stress and frustration? Studies show they're extremely effective in masking pain. Swearing stimulates the brain's amygdala, which releases adrenaline. The heart rate quickens, the skin's conductivity is increased and, most importantly, because we're bellowing words forbidden to us as children, we're momentarily distracted from whatever it is that's causing us grief. Stubbed toe, packaging that refuses to open, tail-gating ute, smart alec Israeli Prime Minister ... a well-timed F-bomb will have an analgesic effect over most annoyances. Surprisingly, used appropriately, swear words can also foster social connections. For a brief moment on the White House lawn, Trump dropped his TV persona. Even his harshest critics - and, believe me, I'm no fan - could empathise with his frustration. The F-bomb not only stopped the fighting; it dropped Trump's performative mask for a couple of seconds. A rare moment of honesty. HAVE YOUR SAY: Does swearing make you feel better when you've hurt yourself? Is there too much of it on TV these days? Have you ever stopped a conversation with a well-timed F-bomb? Email us: echidna@ SHARE THE LOVE: If you enjoy The Echidna, forward it to a friend so they can sign up, too. IN CASE YOU MISSED IT: - A casual ABC radio host awarded $70,000 after being unlawfully fired for her opinion on the Israel-Gaza conflict will seek "significant penalties". - A vast majority of Australia's drinking water supplies meet new "forever chemicals" safety limits, but an expert warns more research needs to be done to understand true safe levels. - A surprise fall in inflation has boosted hopes of an interest rate cut after a key measure dropped to its lowest level in nearly four years. THEY SAID IT: "Under certain circumstances, urgent circumstances, desperate circumstances, profanity provides a relief denied even to prayer." - Mark Twain YOU SAID IT: Proclaiming peace in times of conflict is a risky business but Donald Trump has his eyes set firmly on the prize - the Nobel peace prize. "It's a bit early to be dishing out peace prizes for facilitating the end of this war," writes Ian, who thinks it's unfair to equate Neville Chamberlain with Trump. "Chamberlain may have sold Czechoslovakia down the river with the Munich Agreement, but he did have some good excuses. Britain had gone through a horrific war only 20 years earlier that cost the lives of one million of its citizens and avoiding a repeat of this weighed heavily in Chamberlain's mind." David from Burradoo writes: "Well said, John. Trump might just as well have declared 'Peas in Our Thyme!', except that he's a raw meat kinda guy. His fragile yet boundless ego requires constant soothing by way of public recognition of his manifold contributions to mankind. This whole superbomb Iran thing is to assuage his hurt feelings at the abysmal birthday parade turnout and the massive 'No Kings!' rallies across the US. The sooner we detach ourselves from this lunatic, the better. Pope's cartoon succinctly sums it up." As for Iran's nuclear ambitions, Morry from Melbourne writes: "It may well be holding sufficient Californium 252 to trigger fission of its maybe 600kg of U235 and or otherwise plutonium bred in its reactor from a mix of U235 and 238. The problem will be the safe building of a critical mass sphere - a little less than 18cm in diameter. The firing of sections together cannot afford the faintest error - otherwise a radiation flash (at the very least) as will be lethal to a considerable distance. Smaller spheres can be devised, but great skill is required and maybe the skilled have been killed." David from Kangaroo Flat writes: "He does warrant a prize for something. The extraordinary distraction he has created away from his stupendous failure in the Russia-Ukraine conflict; that deserves a prize. Some sort of Nobel Spin Doctor prize. What happened to his 'I will finish the Ukraine conflict within 24 hours' boast? At this stage, it would seem that if any of the current world conflicts do end, it will be despite Trump's meddling and not because of it." This is a sample of The Echidna newsletter sent out each weekday morning. To sign up for FREE, go to Dropped from a great height it can penetrate the thickest structure before detonating inside. Without warning, it can deliver shock and awe, stopping everything in its tracks. It's neither bunker buster nor hypersonic missile. It doesn't come with a huge price tag and doesn't require a stealth bomber to get it to the target. Used sparingly, it can be the most effective weapon in an arsenal. It is, of course, the F-bomb. We saw how effective it can be when Donald Trump dropped it on a stunned media pack just before he left for the NATO conference in the Netherlands the other day. The whole world took notice because it was beamed live across multiple platforms. And after 12 days of intense missile exchanges, it shocked the leaders of Israel and Iran into stopping their violations of the ceasefire they'd just agreed to. One word stopped the war - for the moment anyway. By chance I caught it on the BBC live stream as it happened. Did he just say that? I asked myself before the anchor confirmed it by apologising for the profanity. In subsequent airings, Trump's F-bomb was bleeped out. A shame really. Sanitised, the video grab loses its punch. It dilutes the obvious, rage-inducing frustration the President was feeling, his impending victory lap at NATO threatened by the actions of Israel especially and Iran as well. At first, I thought the bleeping out sanctimonious. We live in an era in which our screens are so peppered with F and C-bombs we hardly notice them any more. But then perhaps bleeping out Trump's lent it even more power. The word that can't be said was the word that mattered most. I have no doubt Trump and presidents before (and after) routinely deploy these word bombs liberally behind closed doors. And I have no doubt Trump dropped a blizzard of them on Benjamin Netanyahu when he called him from Air Force One on the way to the NATO summit. It was described as an "exceptionally firm and direct" phone call. And if we're honest, who hasn't dropped an F-bomb or three in moments of stress and frustration? Studies show they're extremely effective in masking pain. Swearing stimulates the brain's amygdala, which releases adrenaline. The heart rate quickens, the skin's conductivity is increased and, most importantly, because we're bellowing words forbidden to us as children, we're momentarily distracted from whatever it is that's causing us grief. Stubbed toe, packaging that refuses to open, tail-gating ute, smart alec Israeli Prime Minister ... a well-timed F-bomb will have an analgesic effect over most annoyances. Surprisingly, used appropriately, swear words can also foster social connections. For a brief moment on the White House lawn, Trump dropped his TV persona. Even his harshest critics - and, believe me, I'm no fan - could empathise with his frustration. The F-bomb not only stopped the fighting; it dropped Trump's performative mask for a couple of seconds. A rare moment of honesty. HAVE YOUR SAY: Does swearing make you feel better when you've hurt yourself? Is there too much of it on TV these days? Have you ever stopped a conversation with a well-timed F-bomb? Email us: echidna@ SHARE THE LOVE: If you enjoy The Echidna, forward it to a friend so they can sign up, too. IN CASE YOU MISSED IT: - A casual ABC radio host awarded $70,000 after being unlawfully fired for her opinion on the Israel-Gaza conflict will seek "significant penalties". - A vast majority of Australia's drinking water supplies meet new "forever chemicals" safety limits, but an expert warns more research needs to be done to understand true safe levels. - A surprise fall in inflation has boosted hopes of an interest rate cut after a key measure dropped to its lowest level in nearly four years. THEY SAID IT: "Under certain circumstances, urgent circumstances, desperate circumstances, profanity provides a relief denied even to prayer." - Mark Twain YOU SAID IT: Proclaiming peace in times of conflict is a risky business but Donald Trump has his eyes set firmly on the prize - the Nobel peace prize. "It's a bit early to be dishing out peace prizes for facilitating the end of this war," writes Ian, who thinks it's unfair to equate Neville Chamberlain with Trump. "Chamberlain may have sold Czechoslovakia down the river with the Munich Agreement, but he did have some good excuses. Britain had gone through a horrific war only 20 years earlier that cost the lives of one million of its citizens and avoiding a repeat of this weighed heavily in Chamberlain's mind." David from Burradoo writes: "Well said, John. Trump might just as well have declared 'Peas in Our Thyme!', except that he's a raw meat kinda guy. His fragile yet boundless ego requires constant soothing by way of public recognition of his manifold contributions to mankind. This whole superbomb Iran thing is to assuage his hurt feelings at the abysmal birthday parade turnout and the massive 'No Kings!' rallies across the US. The sooner we detach ourselves from this lunatic, the better. Pope's cartoon succinctly sums it up." As for Iran's nuclear ambitions, Morry from Melbourne writes: "It may well be holding sufficient Californium 252 to trigger fission of its maybe 600kg of U235 and or otherwise plutonium bred in its reactor from a mix of U235 and 238. The problem will be the safe building of a critical mass sphere - a little less than 18cm in diameter. The firing of sections together cannot afford the faintest error - otherwise a radiation flash (at the very least) as will be lethal to a considerable distance. Smaller spheres can be devised, but great skill is required and maybe the skilled have been killed." David from Kangaroo Flat writes: "He does warrant a prize for something. The extraordinary distraction he has created away from his stupendous failure in the Russia-Ukraine conflict; that deserves a prize. Some sort of Nobel Spin Doctor prize. What happened to his 'I will finish the Ukraine conflict within 24 hours' boast? At this stage, it would seem that if any of the current world conflicts do end, it will be despite Trump's meddling and not because of it." This is a sample of The Echidna newsletter sent out each weekday morning. To sign up for FREE, go to Dropped from a great height it can penetrate the thickest structure before detonating inside. Without warning, it can deliver shock and awe, stopping everything in its tracks. It's neither bunker buster nor hypersonic missile. It doesn't come with a huge price tag and doesn't require a stealth bomber to get it to the target. Used sparingly, it can be the most effective weapon in an arsenal. It is, of course, the F-bomb. We saw how effective it can be when Donald Trump dropped it on a stunned media pack just before he left for the NATO conference in the Netherlands the other day. The whole world took notice because it was beamed live across multiple platforms. And after 12 days of intense missile exchanges, it shocked the leaders of Israel and Iran into stopping their violations of the ceasefire they'd just agreed to. One word stopped the war - for the moment anyway. By chance I caught it on the BBC live stream as it happened. Did he just say that? I asked myself before the anchor confirmed it by apologising for the profanity. In subsequent airings, Trump's F-bomb was bleeped out. A shame really. Sanitised, the video grab loses its punch. It dilutes the obvious, rage-inducing frustration the President was feeling, his impending victory lap at NATO threatened by the actions of Israel especially and Iran as well. At first, I thought the bleeping out sanctimonious. We live in an era in which our screens are so peppered with F and C-bombs we hardly notice them any more. But then perhaps bleeping out Trump's lent it even more power. The word that can't be said was the word that mattered most. I have no doubt Trump and presidents before (and after) routinely deploy these word bombs liberally behind closed doors. And I have no doubt Trump dropped a blizzard of them on Benjamin Netanyahu when he called him from Air Force One on the way to the NATO summit. It was described as an "exceptionally firm and direct" phone call. And if we're honest, who hasn't dropped an F-bomb or three in moments of stress and frustration? Studies show they're extremely effective in masking pain. Swearing stimulates the brain's amygdala, which releases adrenaline. The heart rate quickens, the skin's conductivity is increased and, most importantly, because we're bellowing words forbidden to us as children, we're momentarily distracted from whatever it is that's causing us grief. Stubbed toe, packaging that refuses to open, tail-gating ute, smart alec Israeli Prime Minister ... a well-timed F-bomb will have an analgesic effect over most annoyances. Surprisingly, used appropriately, swear words can also foster social connections. For a brief moment on the White House lawn, Trump dropped his TV persona. Even his harshest critics - and, believe me, I'm no fan - could empathise with his frustration. The F-bomb not only stopped the fighting; it dropped Trump's performative mask for a couple of seconds. A rare moment of honesty. HAVE YOUR SAY: Does swearing make you feel better when you've hurt yourself? Is there too much of it on TV these days? Have you ever stopped a conversation with a well-timed F-bomb? Email us: echidna@ SHARE THE LOVE: If you enjoy The Echidna, forward it to a friend so they can sign up, too. IN CASE YOU MISSED IT: - A casual ABC radio host awarded $70,000 after being unlawfully fired for her opinion on the Israel-Gaza conflict will seek "significant penalties". - A vast majority of Australia's drinking water supplies meet new "forever chemicals" safety limits, but an expert warns more research needs to be done to understand true safe levels. - A surprise fall in inflation has boosted hopes of an interest rate cut after a key measure dropped to its lowest level in nearly four years. THEY SAID IT: "Under certain circumstances, urgent circumstances, desperate circumstances, profanity provides a relief denied even to prayer." - Mark Twain YOU SAID IT: Proclaiming peace in times of conflict is a risky business but Donald Trump has his eyes set firmly on the prize - the Nobel peace prize. "It's a bit early to be dishing out peace prizes for facilitating the end of this war," writes Ian, who thinks it's unfair to equate Neville Chamberlain with Trump. "Chamberlain may have sold Czechoslovakia down the river with the Munich Agreement, but he did have some good excuses. Britain had gone through a horrific war only 20 years earlier that cost the lives of one million of its citizens and avoiding a repeat of this weighed heavily in Chamberlain's mind." David from Burradoo writes: "Well said, John. Trump might just as well have declared 'Peas in Our Thyme!', except that he's a raw meat kinda guy. His fragile yet boundless ego requires constant soothing by way of public recognition of his manifold contributions to mankind. This whole superbomb Iran thing is to assuage his hurt feelings at the abysmal birthday parade turnout and the massive 'No Kings!' rallies across the US. The sooner we detach ourselves from this lunatic, the better. Pope's cartoon succinctly sums it up." As for Iran's nuclear ambitions, Morry from Melbourne writes: "It may well be holding sufficient Californium 252 to trigger fission of its maybe 600kg of U235 and or otherwise plutonium bred in its reactor from a mix of U235 and 238. The problem will be the safe building of a critical mass sphere - a little less than 18cm in diameter. The firing of sections together cannot afford the faintest error - otherwise a radiation flash (at the very least) as will be lethal to a considerable distance. Smaller spheres can be devised, but great skill is required and maybe the skilled have been killed." David from Kangaroo Flat writes: "He does warrant a prize for something. The extraordinary distraction he has created away from his stupendous failure in the Russia-Ukraine conflict; that deserves a prize. Some sort of Nobel Spin Doctor prize. What happened to his 'I will finish the Ukraine conflict within 24 hours' boast? At this stage, it would seem that if any of the current world conflicts do end, it will be despite Trump's meddling and not because of it." This is a sample of The Echidna newsletter sent out each weekday morning. To sign up for FREE, go to Dropped from a great height it can penetrate the thickest structure before detonating inside. Without warning, it can deliver shock and awe, stopping everything in its tracks. It's neither bunker buster nor hypersonic missile. It doesn't come with a huge price tag and doesn't require a stealth bomber to get it to the target. Used sparingly, it can be the most effective weapon in an arsenal. It is, of course, the F-bomb. We saw how effective it can be when Donald Trump dropped it on a stunned media pack just before he left for the NATO conference in the Netherlands the other day. The whole world took notice because it was beamed live across multiple platforms. And after 12 days of intense missile exchanges, it shocked the leaders of Israel and Iran into stopping their violations of the ceasefire they'd just agreed to. One word stopped the war - for the moment anyway. By chance I caught it on the BBC live stream as it happened. Did he just say that? I asked myself before the anchor confirmed it by apologising for the profanity. In subsequent airings, Trump's F-bomb was bleeped out. A shame really. Sanitised, the video grab loses its punch. It dilutes the obvious, rage-inducing frustration the President was feeling, his impending victory lap at NATO threatened by the actions of Israel especially and Iran as well. At first, I thought the bleeping out sanctimonious. We live in an era in which our screens are so peppered with F and C-bombs we hardly notice them any more. But then perhaps bleeping out Trump's lent it even more power. The word that can't be said was the word that mattered most. I have no doubt Trump and presidents before (and after) routinely deploy these word bombs liberally behind closed doors. And I have no doubt Trump dropped a blizzard of them on Benjamin Netanyahu when he called him from Air Force One on the way to the NATO summit. It was described as an "exceptionally firm and direct" phone call. And if we're honest, who hasn't dropped an F-bomb or three in moments of stress and frustration? Studies show they're extremely effective in masking pain. Swearing stimulates the brain's amygdala, which releases adrenaline. The heart rate quickens, the skin's conductivity is increased and, most importantly, because we're bellowing words forbidden to us as children, we're momentarily distracted from whatever it is that's causing us grief. Stubbed toe, packaging that refuses to open, tail-gating ute, smart alec Israeli Prime Minister ... a well-timed F-bomb will have an analgesic effect over most annoyances. Surprisingly, used appropriately, swear words can also foster social connections. For a brief moment on the White House lawn, Trump dropped his TV persona. Even his harshest critics - and, believe me, I'm no fan - could empathise with his frustration. The F-bomb not only stopped the fighting; it dropped Trump's performative mask for a couple of seconds. A rare moment of honesty. HAVE YOUR SAY: Does swearing make you feel better when you've hurt yourself? Is there too much of it on TV these days? Have you ever stopped a conversation with a well-timed F-bomb? Email us: echidna@ SHARE THE LOVE: If you enjoy The Echidna, forward it to a friend so they can sign up, too. IN CASE YOU MISSED IT: - A casual ABC radio host awarded $70,000 after being unlawfully fired for her opinion on the Israel-Gaza conflict will seek "significant penalties". - A vast majority of Australia's drinking water supplies meet new "forever chemicals" safety limits, but an expert warns more research needs to be done to understand true safe levels. - A surprise fall in inflation has boosted hopes of an interest rate cut after a key measure dropped to its lowest level in nearly four years. THEY SAID IT: "Under certain circumstances, urgent circumstances, desperate circumstances, profanity provides a relief denied even to prayer." - Mark Twain YOU SAID IT: Proclaiming peace in times of conflict is a risky business but Donald Trump has his eyes set firmly on the prize - the Nobel peace prize. "It's a bit early to be dishing out peace prizes for facilitating the end of this war," writes Ian, who thinks it's unfair to equate Neville Chamberlain with Trump. "Chamberlain may have sold Czechoslovakia down the river with the Munich Agreement, but he did have some good excuses. Britain had gone through a horrific war only 20 years earlier that cost the lives of one million of its citizens and avoiding a repeat of this weighed heavily in Chamberlain's mind." David from Burradoo writes: "Well said, John. Trump might just as well have declared 'Peas in Our Thyme!', except that he's a raw meat kinda guy. His fragile yet boundless ego requires constant soothing by way of public recognition of his manifold contributions to mankind. This whole superbomb Iran thing is to assuage his hurt feelings at the abysmal birthday parade turnout and the massive 'No Kings!' rallies across the US. The sooner we detach ourselves from this lunatic, the better. Pope's cartoon succinctly sums it up." As for Iran's nuclear ambitions, Morry from Melbourne writes: "It may well be holding sufficient Californium 252 to trigger fission of its maybe 600kg of U235 and or otherwise plutonium bred in its reactor from a mix of U235 and 238. The problem will be the safe building of a critical mass sphere - a little less than 18cm in diameter. The firing of sections together cannot afford the faintest error - otherwise a radiation flash (at the very least) as will be lethal to a considerable distance. Smaller spheres can be devised, but great skill is required and maybe the skilled have been killed." David from Kangaroo Flat writes: "He does warrant a prize for something. The extraordinary distraction he has created away from his stupendous failure in the Russia-Ukraine conflict; that deserves a prize. Some sort of Nobel Spin Doctor prize. What happened to his 'I will finish the Ukraine conflict within 24 hours' boast? At this stage, it would seem that if any of the current world conflicts do end, it will be despite Trump's meddling and not because of it."
The Age
2 hours ago
- The Age
He's still alive – seemingly with 400kg of uranium. What will Iran's supreme leader do next?
The second objective – degrading Iran's military – looks to have been a roaring tactical success, although both the Iranians and Israelis will keep the details of the destruction secret. But it is clear Iran's military has taken a mauling. But the first and most important objective – and the only one shared by the United States – is shrouded in uncertainty. No one seems to know how badly the bombing damaged Iran's enrichment and processing facilities. No one seems to know the location of Iran's 400 kilograms of 60 per cent-enriched uranium – enough for almost a dozen bombs. And nor is it clear that all Iran's nuclear facilities were even known to the Israelis. 'I'm sure they have a hidden place somewhere with some hundreds, if not thousands, of centrifuges, and they have material all there in several places all over Iran,' Sima Shine, a former head of Mossad, Israel's overseas intelligence service, told the London Telegraph. 'They cannot do anything now, tomorrow, but in the future, they have all the capabilities [to build a bomb].' More important of all is political calculus. 'I told you so' For years, hardline Iranian commanders have urged Khamenei to stop procrastinating and just build a damned bomb. No other deterrent, they argued, could protect the regime from American or Israeli attack. Until now, Khamenei has resisted those calls, instead hoping that just the ability to build a bomb could provide a deterrent while avoiding the costs of actually doing so. With the 12-day war proving that theory useless, the weaponeers will now feel vindicated and will push their views even harder in Tehran. 'It's exactly the kind of debate that [they will] have at the Supreme National Security Council in Iran, and the supreme leader will have to decide about it,' says Citrinowicz. 'If you had asked me before this, I would say Khamenei will not, during his lifetime, instruct the scientists to build a nuclear bomb because he understands that the price is too grave. But now they have already paid the price. Do they want to continue to pay future prices? They don't want to be exposed to the mercy of the West.' The backlash Loading In Iran, a backlash against nuclear co-operation with the international community is already under way. The Speaker of Iran's parliament, Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf announced on Tuesday that MPs were 'seeking to pass a bill that will suspend Iran's co-operation with the [International Atomic Energy] Agency (IAEA) until we receive concrete assurances of its professional conduct as an international organisation'. Previously, such rhetoric might have been seen as largely theatrical, rather than evidence of imminent intent to weaponise. But 'everything we thought we knew about Iran has been changed by this war,' says Citrinowicz. 'Until the current war, Iran preferred to do everything by its own capabilities,' he says. 'But if they understand that they need something quick, they might change their nuclear strategy regarding that, and prefer to buy a bomb. For example, from North Korea.' The North Korean model North Korea may provide inspiration in other ways. After the United States invaded Iraq in 2003, Iran shelved its nuclear weapons programme to avoid a similar fate. Libya's Muammar Gaddafi did the same. But North Korea, the third member of George W. Bush's 'axis of evil' after Iran and Iraq, instead doubled down, and in 2006, tested its first nuclear weapon. The subsequent fates of those regimes have been very different. Gaddafi was killed by an uprising backed by NATO in 2011. Iran has just been bombed comprehensively by Israel and America. From the point of view of regime survival, perhaps Kim Jong-il and his son Kim Jong-un made the right choice. But can Iran replicate its nuclear dash? In many ways, Iran is – or was – well ahead of the North Korean starting point. It has already mastered domestic uranium enrichment and has studied weaponisation. It has a large domestic resource of scientists trained in nuclear physics. And it already has a chunk of highly enriched material to start working with. The North Koreans, by contrast, began by building a plutonium bomb with material bred in an ordinary nuclear reactor – a technology they learnt from the Soviets. That is a complicated, painstaking process that limited them to building one bomb a year. It was only later, with information bought from a corrupt Pakistani scientist, that they mastered uranium enrichment and were able to churn out simpler and quicker to build uranium-based bombs. If Sima Shine is right that the Iranians have managed to preserve some centrifuges, they could spin up their 400 kilograms of 60 per cent enriched material to weapons-grade 90 per cent in just a couple of days. The tricky bit is moulding the fissile material into the right shape and fitting it with an explosive charge and a neutron initiator designed to provoke a chain reaction at just the right moment. Once the mechanism is built, it must be fitted onto a warhead and mounted on a delivery system – in Iran's case, a Shahab-3 liquid-fuelled ballistic missile. Those are fiddly engineering problems, but ones that Iran is known to have already made progress on, says David Albright, a former weapons inspector. 'They have some challenges in finishing up the design and other development steps. So I think six months is what they would need from start to finish' to make the actual weapon, and maybe 'several more months' to mount it on a missile, he told The Telegraph before the American attack on Fordow. 'The weapon-grade uranium part could be done very quickly and probably would be done toward the end of that six months,' he adds. There is another lesson from North Korea, he says. 'The Iranians designed their bomb so that it wouldn't need a nuclear test in order to have assurance it would work. But they may indeed test one if they wanted to assert their nuclear status. Loading 'North Korea did that same kind of programme, and it fired at one-tenth of the expected yield. So you can make a mistake. In the North Korean case, they then saw their mistake and corrected it. The same thing could happen to Iran. That's why I think it takes longer than a couple of months from start to finish on the design. I mean, they have to be careful because things can misfire.' Iran's missile forces have also been decimated by Israeli strikes, so it is unclear how many Shahab missiles they still have, or how quickly they could build more. Israeli officials have claimed the bombing raids set the Iranian nuclear program back by up to two years. But can Khamenei wait that long? North Korea is believed to have sold nuclear weapons technology in the past. Specifically, it provided the technology for the Syrian reactor at Al Kibar that Israel destroyed in 2007. It is the only country known to have done so, says Citrinowicz, making it the logical candidate for the Iranians to approach, especially given both countries' alliance with Russia in Ukraine. Rule nothing out But there is a big problem. All of this would depend on the Iranian nuclear programme remaining so secret that neither Israel nor America could discover it and destroy it. Given the level of intelligence penetration Iran suffered over the past two weeks, there is no guarantee of that. Loading 'I'm not saying this is going to happen, but I'm saying that we have to look outside the box. We have to be ready for the unexpected,' says Citrinowicz. 'Everything that we knew about Iran changed dramatically after our attack. In this situation right now, we cannot rule out anything.' The Telegraph, London
Sydney Morning Herald
2 hours ago
- Sydney Morning Herald
He's still alive – seemingly with 400kg of uranium. What will Iran's supreme leader do next?
The second objective – degrading Iran's military – looks to have been a roaring tactical success, although both the Iranians and Israelis will keep the details of the destruction secret. But it is clear Iran's military has taken a mauling. But the first and most important objective – and the only one shared by the United States – is shrouded in uncertainty. No one seems to know how badly the bombing damaged Iran's enrichment and processing facilities. No one seems to know the location of Iran's 400 kilograms of 60 per cent-enriched uranium – enough for almost a dozen bombs. And nor is it clear that all Iran's nuclear facilities were even known to the Israelis. 'I'm sure they have a hidden place somewhere with some hundreds, if not thousands, of centrifuges, and they have material all there in several places all over Iran,' Sima Shine, a former head of Mossad, Israel's overseas intelligence service, told the London Telegraph. 'They cannot do anything now, tomorrow, but in the future, they have all the capabilities [to build a bomb].' More important of all is political calculus. 'I told you so' For years, hardline Iranian commanders have urged Khamenei to stop procrastinating and just build a damned bomb. No other deterrent, they argued, could protect the regime from American or Israeli attack. Until now, Khamenei has resisted those calls, instead hoping that just the ability to build a bomb could provide a deterrent while avoiding the costs of actually doing so. With the 12-day war proving that theory useless, the weaponeers will now feel vindicated and will push their views even harder in Tehran. 'It's exactly the kind of debate that [they will] have at the Supreme National Security Council in Iran, and the supreme leader will have to decide about it,' says Citrinowicz. 'If you had asked me before this, I would say Khamenei will not, during his lifetime, instruct the scientists to build a nuclear bomb because he understands that the price is too grave. But now they have already paid the price. Do they want to continue to pay future prices? They don't want to be exposed to the mercy of the West.' The backlash Loading In Iran, a backlash against nuclear co-operation with the international community is already under way. The Speaker of Iran's parliament, Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf announced on Tuesday that MPs were 'seeking to pass a bill that will suspend Iran's co-operation with the [International Atomic Energy] Agency (IAEA) until we receive concrete assurances of its professional conduct as an international organisation'. Previously, such rhetoric might have been seen as largely theatrical, rather than evidence of imminent intent to weaponise. But 'everything we thought we knew about Iran has been changed by this war,' says Citrinowicz. 'Until the current war, Iran preferred to do everything by its own capabilities,' he says. 'But if they understand that they need something quick, they might change their nuclear strategy regarding that, and prefer to buy a bomb. For example, from North Korea.' The North Korean model North Korea may provide inspiration in other ways. After the United States invaded Iraq in 2003, Iran shelved its nuclear weapons programme to avoid a similar fate. Libya's Muammar Gaddafi did the same. But North Korea, the third member of George W. Bush's 'axis of evil' after Iran and Iraq, instead doubled down, and in 2006, tested its first nuclear weapon. The subsequent fates of those regimes have been very different. Gaddafi was killed by an uprising backed by NATO in 2011. Iran has just been bombed comprehensively by Israel and America. From the point of view of regime survival, perhaps Kim Jong-il and his son Kim Jong-un made the right choice. But can Iran replicate its nuclear dash? In many ways, Iran is – or was – well ahead of the North Korean starting point. It has already mastered domestic uranium enrichment and has studied weaponisation. It has a large domestic resource of scientists trained in nuclear physics. And it already has a chunk of highly enriched material to start working with. The North Koreans, by contrast, began by building a plutonium bomb with material bred in an ordinary nuclear reactor – a technology they learnt from the Soviets. That is a complicated, painstaking process that limited them to building one bomb a year. It was only later, with information bought from a corrupt Pakistani scientist, that they mastered uranium enrichment and were able to churn out simpler and quicker to build uranium-based bombs. If Sima Shine is right that the Iranians have managed to preserve some centrifuges, they could spin up their 400 kilograms of 60 per cent enriched material to weapons-grade 90 per cent in just a couple of days. The tricky bit is moulding the fissile material into the right shape and fitting it with an explosive charge and a neutron initiator designed to provoke a chain reaction at just the right moment. Once the mechanism is built, it must be fitted onto a warhead and mounted on a delivery system – in Iran's case, a Shahab-3 liquid-fuelled ballistic missile. Those are fiddly engineering problems, but ones that Iran is known to have already made progress on, says David Albright, a former weapons inspector. 'They have some challenges in finishing up the design and other development steps. So I think six months is what they would need from start to finish' to make the actual weapon, and maybe 'several more months' to mount it on a missile, he told The Telegraph before the American attack on Fordow. 'The weapon-grade uranium part could be done very quickly and probably would be done toward the end of that six months,' he adds. There is another lesson from North Korea, he says. 'The Iranians designed their bomb so that it wouldn't need a nuclear test in order to have assurance it would work. But they may indeed test one if they wanted to assert their nuclear status. Loading 'North Korea did that same kind of programme, and it fired at one-tenth of the expected yield. So you can make a mistake. In the North Korean case, they then saw their mistake and corrected it. The same thing could happen to Iran. That's why I think it takes longer than a couple of months from start to finish on the design. I mean, they have to be careful because things can misfire.' Iran's missile forces have also been decimated by Israeli strikes, so it is unclear how many Shahab missiles they still have, or how quickly they could build more. Israeli officials have claimed the bombing raids set the Iranian nuclear program back by up to two years. But can Khamenei wait that long? North Korea is believed to have sold nuclear weapons technology in the past. Specifically, it provided the technology for the Syrian reactor at Al Kibar that Israel destroyed in 2007. It is the only country known to have done so, says Citrinowicz, making it the logical candidate for the Iranians to approach, especially given both countries' alliance with Russia in Ukraine. Rule nothing out But there is a big problem. All of this would depend on the Iranian nuclear programme remaining so secret that neither Israel nor America could discover it and destroy it. Given the level of intelligence penetration Iran suffered over the past two weeks, there is no guarantee of that. Loading 'I'm not saying this is going to happen, but I'm saying that we have to look outside the box. We have to be ready for the unexpected,' says Citrinowicz. 'Everything that we knew about Iran changed dramatically after our attack. In this situation right now, we cannot rule out anything.' The Telegraph, London
