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Critical mineral supply concentration, export restrictions may cause disruptions, IEA reports

Critical mineral supply concentration, export restrictions may cause disruptions, IEA reports

Yahoo21-05-2025

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has indicated potential vulnerabilities in the supply chain of strategic minerals critical for the energy and technology sectors in its new 2025 Global Critical Minerals Outlook.
The report underscores the increasing concentration of supply in a few countries and the rise of export restrictions, which heighten the risk of market disruptions.
The IEA's report reveals that the market share of the top three producers for critical minerals such as cobalt, copper, graphite, lithium, nickel and rare earth elements increased to 86% in 2024 from around 82% in 2020.
Significant supply growth is coming from Indonesia for nickel and China for other minerals.
Despite policymakers' awareness of these challenges, the report suggests that diversification of supply chains is progressing slowly, with the top suppliers' market share projected to decline only marginally over the next decade.
Demand for energy minerals has surged, with lithium demand growing by nearly 30% in 2024.
However, increased supply, particularly from China, Indonesia and parts of Africa, has led to lower prices for battery metals.
Investment and exploration activities in critical minerals have shown signs of slowing down, which could pose future risks to supply.
The report specifically highlights the risks faced by the copper market, where a projected 30% supply deficit by 2035 could arise due to surging demand for expanding electricity networks.
The prevalence of export restrictions is also a concern, with 55% of strategic minerals now under some form of export control, affecting not only raw materials but also processing technologies.
China recently imposed export restrictions on rare earths in response to US tariffs.
China's dominance in refining 19 out of 20 of the strategic minerals analysed, coupled with high price volatility, underscores the economic impact of potential supply disruptions.
The IEA also examines supply chains for emerging battery technologies, noting the risks associated with China's control over key components.
"Critical mineral supply concentration, export restrictions may cause disruptions, IEA reports" was originally created and published by Mining Technology, a GlobalData owned brand.
The information on this site has been included in good faith for general informational purposes only. It is not intended to amount to advice on which you should rely, and we give no representation, warranty or guarantee, whether express or implied as to its accuracy or completeness. You must obtain professional or specialist advice before taking, or refraining from, any action on the basis of the content on our site.

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Fully charged? How the UK's electric cars share compares to other countries
Fully charged? How the UK's electric cars share compares to other countries

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time5 hours ago

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Fully charged? How the UK's electric cars share compares to other countries

With green vehicles becoming more affordable, adoption is at full throttle, despite some recent speed bumps. So, which nations boast the largest share on the road? In an ironic twist, the number one country just happens to be a massive oil producer, while the world's biggest carbon emitter is in the top five. Read on to discover the top 25 countries leading the way with the largest share of electric vehicles currently on the road, based on data from the International Energy Agency's (IEA) Global EV Outlook 2025. The IEA's 2025 Outlook paints a picture of a rapidly accelerating global shift toward electric mobility – 3.5 million more cars sold in 2024 compared to the previous year. To put the momentum into perspective, the number of additional EVs sold last year on its own surpassed the total number purchased worldwide in 2020. China, the world's biggest EV market, continues to go from strength to strength. Over in Europe, electric car sales plateaued last year as subsidies and other support schemes ended. Yet the continent remains a leader in EV adoption. While the US is playing catch-up, it saw sales rise by 10%. However, emerging markets in Asia and Latin America truly stole the show, with a remarkable 60% year-on-year increase. Looking ahead, the EV revolution shows no signs of slowing down, with more than one in four cars sold this year set to be electric. This is in spite of uncertainties surrounding global economic growth, trade, and industrial policies. It will all come down to money in the end, as falling prices speed up mainstream adoption. In just five years, electric cars are expected to make up 40% of new car sales, and you'll no doubt notice many more out and about on the road. But which countries have the biggest share of electric cars on their roads right now... 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The share of new cars sold that are electric was also much higher in Greece last year, coming in at 12% against Poland's 5.7%. Interestingly, sales have held up in Greece despite a lack of new incentives and steep electricity prices. Türkiye started from a very low base, but the country has experienced the biggest relative growth in the number of electric cars on the road among the top 25 nations on this list. The figure has skyrocketed 3,900% since 2020 when eco autos represented virtually 0% of the total. And last year, 11% of new cars sold in Türkiye were electric. The country aims to phase out the sale of new fossil-fuel-powered cars by 2040. Incidentally, Brazil has seen the biggest relative change of all the countries tracked in the IEA's data, with its stock of electric cars over 40 times larger compared to 2020. These now constitute 0.7% of the cars on the country's highways and byways. 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Could Africa establish a critical minerals-backed currency?
Could Africa establish a critical minerals-backed currency?

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time5 hours ago

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Could Africa establish a critical minerals-backed currency?

Africa holds approximately 30% of the world's critical mineral reserves, making the continent indispensable to green industrialisation and the global energy transition. However, beyond being a major supplier, Africa has yet to establish a strong value chain to reap the benefits of this mineral wealth for itself. Less than 5% of its critical minerals are domestically processed as most value addition occurs abroad, especially in China, which dominates the refining industry. To address this disparity, there are growing calls for collaboration between African countries and their respective mining industries. A report by the African Development Bank (AfDB) and KPMG South Africa proposes a currency convertibility mechanism that would see participating countries pool a pre-agreed percentage of critical minerals to raise investment in energy and other developmental infrastructure. However, persistent and significant barriers stand in the way of a harmonised critical minerals value chain in Africa – including infrastructural deficits, skilled labour shortages, and environmental, social and governance (ESG) concerns. Considering these challenges, Mining Technology examines the currency mechanism and Africa's potential as a self-governing critical minerals powerhouse. Critical minerals are an active market across the continent as global competitors vie to secure ownership over valuable deposits. The main resources are cobalt, copper, graphite, lithium, manganese and nickel. "Africa's critical minerals mining sector is predominantly Chinese-owned as Western ownership tends to concentrate on traditional commodities, creating a dependency that often leads to exploitation,' says Olimpia Pilch, chief strategy officer at the Critical Minerals Africa Group. China has invested billions into African mining operations, with Mining Technology's parent company GlobalData pointing out that such investments have contributed to the 'construction of vital infrastructure and the transfer of essential knowledge to African communities'. Meanwhile, as China's main adversary, the US has been ramping up its interest in the continent's critical minerals. Since March, the US has been in discussions with the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) for an exclusive minerals-for-security deal in a bid to counter China's influence and diversify supply. On the European investment front, ESG is top of mind through initiatives such as the €300bn ($341.08bn) Global Gateway programme. However, the European Council on Foreign Relations recently urged the EU to deprioritise its 'strict ESG-first approach' lest it fall behind its competitors in Africa. Despite these moves by global superpowers, Africa has yet to benefit from its own critical minerals on a macroeconomic scale. KPMG South Africa lead economist Frank Blackmore tells Mining Technology that the continent 'is behind on a lot of metrics, mainly with infrastructure', adding that electrification for both public and industrial use is a key area of underdevelopment. 'Infrastructure deficits exist primarily in the form of poor roads, ports and energy supply, which limit access to mineral-rich areas in rural and isolated locations,' says Joshua Charles, CEO of Frontier Dominion, an investment research company focused on Africa. Exacerbating issues is the continent's skilled labour shortage. Research by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development highlights southern and central Africa as regions where deficits in skilled workers have held back mining development and job creation. The majority of respondents to a recent GlobalData survey identified improving infrastructure and securing financing as the most vital challenges for African critical minerals to overcome. This embedded content is not available in your region. A revolution has emerged in recent years as African countries take steps to secure greater control of their critical mineral resources and prioritise local expertise and suppliers. At the EIT RawMaterials Summit in Brussels on 13–15 May, Mining Technology spoke to Aleksandra Cholewa, director of investment and development at Luma Holding and supervisor of the Malta-based investment firm's Rwandan assets. This includes a major tin and tantalum smelter that delivers to European and US markets. 'Africa has always been treated as backup storage for minerals to be shipped elsewhere,' she confirmed. 'We know we need more minerals – and that Africa can be a sustainable source [given] the right tools – but we must also be aware of what kind of value proposition we have for them. Partnerships should be equal.' The AfDB and KPMG South Africa have put forward a mechanism for participating African countries to 'pool together their mineral resources into a commodity basket [which will] serve their interests much better', while also funding long-term energy transition projects. World Resources Institute Africa governance and civil society support lead Patrick James Njakani Okoko explains that in current currency flows critical minerals 'help reduce currency risks by bringing in foreign exchange, as governments in exporting countries such as the DRC often intervene in foreign exchange markets to stabilise local currencies, in turn strengthening their ability to import essential goods'. However, he points out that this model creates a dependency on raw mineral exports and limits local benefits and value addition as a large share of the profits are captured by foreign operators. Indeed, the DRC has been grappling with an oversupply of cobalt and is considering extending its export bans, which began in February. Under the proposed critical minerals basket, also known as African Units of Account, participating countries would pledge a pre-agreed proportion of proven commodity reserves to 'promote regional financial integration, co-operation and cross-border trade'. The report suggests the S&P500 in the US as a point of comparison and the Gold Standard System as a precedent for the basket. However, Pilch contends that 'the model fails to recognise that many critical minerals are not commodities as they lack fungibility'. 'While gold-backed currencies offer stability, critical minerals offer the polar opposite," she adds. The critical minerals selected for inclusion in the mechanism are based on 'future expectation of value', with the report spotlighting copper, cobalt, nickel and lithium. KPMG partner and southern Africa financial services sector head Auguste Claude-Nguetsop adds that 'this is based on the demand, location, size and availability of critical minerals that can then be used as collateral for long-term funding towards Africa's Strategic Development Goals'. As well as mitigating currency risk and facilitating long-term borrowing for clean energy projects powered by critical minerals, another potential outcome of the basket would be the incentivisation of domestic natural resource exploration and extraction. According to Blackmore, the model 'would stimulate mining in Africa. The snowball effect of this would be the harmonisation of mining processes and regulation." Blackmore and Claude-Nguetsop believe that the mechanism and the AfDB's role as a settlement agent would improve transparency around mining investment deals between nations, establishing a more stable business environment. However, there are significant challenges made harder by the continental scale of the mechanism. 'The plan is viable so long as a periodic review takes place by an independent Africa minerals board, coordinated by the AfDB, to ensure that the mineral basket stabilises financing for access to fair financing rates,' asserts Charles. Meanwhile, Cholewa is positive about the plan. 'It is very ambitious and needs more discussion between all stakeholders – governments, the upstream, midstream and downstream, and financial institutions. There is some industry scepticism, but we would be happy to see how we can implement it in the tin and tantalum sector.' Claude-Nguetsop acknowledges that buy-in from political and business leaders will be critical to the success of the mechanism. Meanwhile, Blackmore says that depending on the jurisdiction "there could be operational challenges" related to moving products in and out of some countries, 'but as the mechanism enters economies, there will be operational liberalisation". He confirms to Mining Technology that the AfDB is currently working on piloting the basket, with careful consideration as to which nation will be selected for the study before an attempted expansion across Africa. It is impossible to regard such a change in Africa's critical minerals landscape without also considering the position of China. 'Any critical mineral currency would be left at the mercy of China's whims and could be easily weaponised to ensure African leaders fall in line with Beijing's agenda,' argues Pilch. Increasing action is being taken to reform Africa's mining and resource sectors with the interests of the continent front of mind. If implemented, a critical minerals basket could work alongside established initiatives such as the African Union (AU)'s Africa Mining Vision, which was created in 2009 and advocates for equitable and sustainable mineral resource management. This is in addition to newer frameworks like the AU and AfDB's recently announced Green Minerals Strategy. This highlights four main priorities: advancing mineral development; developing people and technological capability; building mineral value-chains; and promoting mineral stewardship. 'As time goes on, we could see the mechanism open for broader commodities as well, such as precious metals, but the current close ties between critical minerals and Africa's development are what is urgent,' states Blackmore. Looking ahead, Charles believes that 'there will be an increase in investments in Africa's critical minerals due to geopolitical interest, and thus growth in regional collaboration with institutions such as the AfDB, the World Bank, and multilateral partnerships between the US and EU and other regional blocs likely to materialise in the future'. The vast majority (82%) of those polled on the Mining Technology website in April/May stated that Africa would have an "extremely significant" (57%) or "very significant" (25%) role in the global critical minerals race, versus just 7% who said the continent's role would be "not at all significant". Cholewa hopes that there will be more value addition, particularly in the downstream sector. 'Africa is almost ready and there is no reason for it not to be done – but it needs financing, capacity building and education.' 'Africa holds immense potential to maintain and expand its role as a major player in global natural resource markets,' concurs Okoko. 'Through strategic policies, infrastructure development and balanced partnerships, the continent can transform its natural wealth into a driver of inclusive and sustainable development." "Could Africa establish a critical minerals-backed currency? " was originally created and published by Mining Technology, a GlobalData owned brand. The information on this site has been included in good faith for general informational purposes only. It is not intended to amount to advice on which you should rely, and we give no representation, warranty or guarantee, whether express or implied as to its accuracy or completeness. You must obtain professional or specialist advice before taking, or refraining from, any action on the basis of the content on our site. Sign in to access your portfolio

Cisco: The Future of Energy: How Innovation and Infrastructure Are Needed To Respond to AI Growth
Cisco: The Future of Energy: How Innovation and Infrastructure Are Needed To Respond to AI Growth

Associated Press

time5 hours ago

  • Associated Press

Cisco: The Future of Energy: How Innovation and Infrastructure Are Needed To Respond to AI Growth

In 2024, the International Energy Agency (IEA) estimated that data centers accounted for roughly 1.5 percent of global electricity demand. That number is expected to more than double by 2030, driven largely by the rise in AI infrastructure. To put this into perspective, that increase would be equivalentto Japan's total electricity consumption today. How will we meet this rising need for energy — not only from artificial intelligence (AI), but from other digital technologies and the electrification of industries, such as transportation and buildings? While this challenge may seem daunting, there is reason for optimism. We are seeing numerous innovations and technologies paving the way forward, including advancements in more energy-efficient data centers, breakthroughs in liquid cooling, improved software models, increased energy security, and the exploration of alternative energy sources. I recently had the opportunity to discuss the future of energy with Mary de Wysocki, SVP and Chief Sustainability Officer at Cisco; Adele Trombetta, SVP & GM, CX EMEA at Cisco; and Christopher Wellise, VP of Sustainability at Equinix, a Cisco customer that provides global digital infrastructure and colocation services. Here are some of the highlights from our conversation. Q: How are customers adjusting their strategies in response to the energy picture right now? Adele: Our customers and partners are driving strong demand for AI deployment to unlock its benefits and stay competitive. This trend spans across industries in both the public and private sectors. The pressure is undeniable, but the energy impact of AI, particularly generative AI, is also on our customers' minds, especially as large language models (LLMs) are being deployed and trained at scale. Many of our customers across Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA) have net-zero targets, so they need to manage the accelerating adoption of AI carefully. They are approaching this with sustainability in mind, making it a core part of strategy development rather than an afterthought. It's about adopting AI while simultaneously managing its energy impact. Mary: Interestingly, perspectives can vary depending on who you're speaking with — whether it's customers, partners, or suppliers. A common theme emerging, particularly in light of global dynamics, is resiliency. There is a clear focus on proactive investments to secure the energy needed for the future. It's also about finding ways to move forward collaboratively and identifying opportunities for co-investment. The priorities are clear: we need growth, resilience, and a more sustainable approach. Chris: We're seeing several key themes across the customer landscape. Resiliency and reliability are top priorities, with customers focused on ensuring their applications run smoothly. Regulatory compliance is another major concern, especially in regions like the European Union (EU) with directives such as the EU Energy Efficiency Directive. Another request is for end-to-end solutions that optimize operations across the entire value chain as well as support sustainability reporting and regulatory requirements. As customers adopt hybrid multi-cloud environments, they are keen to optimize energy use across platforms and regions. Finally, partnerships are critical. Customers recognize the need to collaborate with suppliers, energy providers, and others to meet their goals and optimize energy use. For example, in the Cisco-Equinix partnership, 70% of devices connected to the Equinix fabric run on Cisco technology. Q: We know data centers are the foundation for supporting the AI boom and managing its related energy needs. What are some technological advancements that are happening in the data center? Mary: Designing products with energy efficiency in mind is a critical first step in delivering business outcomes and addressing sustainability. For example, Cisco's Silicon One chip is engineered to be both energy-efficient and optimized for AI workloads, enabling customers to reduce power consumption while meeting the growing demands of modern networks and data-intensive applications. In addition to that, a foundational innovation for customers, partners, and suppliers is our Sustainability Data Foundation (SDF). It provides a single source of truth, offering the data needed to manage carbon footprints and progress toward net-zero goals. This information empowers technology leaders with the tools to better manage energy and drive sustainability. Chris: Designing for efficiency is so important. Since 2021, we have required all new build sites to pursue LEED or an equivalent green building certification to demonstrate adherence to recognized sustainability best practices in design and construction. Data centers, built to last 20 to 30 years, require optimization in both design and operations. Innovation in cooling is especially important because cooling typically accounts for over half of energy consumption. Over 100 Equinix data centers are now enabled with access to liquid cooling technology, such as heat exchangers or direct-to-chip cooling. In the latter, a copper plate, fluid, and closed-loop system remove heat directly from the chip while using chemicals to prevent erosion and bio slimes. From a sustainability perspective, this concentrated heat becomes highly usable. For example, in Helsinki, Finland, heat from data centers warms over 10,000 homes, and during the last Summer Olympics, the aquatic center pools were heated by an Equinix data center. Additionally, AI-powered advanced software can create digital twins to optimize cooling parameters and reduce energy consumption for cooling. Adele: Cisco's new products now integrate both sustainability and security into the design process. Customers increasingly want to understand how we deploy, monitor, and optimize technology to address energy consumption, performance, and AI. According to a Gartner study, 'By 2030, more than 70% of data centers will monitor sustainability metrics, up from approximately 10% today.' (source: Gartner ®). Collaboration within the partner and customer ecosystem is key to modernization and efficient resource use. Coordinating diverse data — ranging from Cisco networking equipment to grid data, weather, location, and IT/OT systems — presents a complex but exciting challenge. With Splunk, we can streamline this process and generate the insights needed for effective information flow and optimization. Q: How well is the global electricity infrastructure equipped to handle growing electricity demand? Chris: Our primary challenge lies more in distribution than in supply, and the reasons for this vary by region. In the United States, aging infrastructure and complex policy and regulatory environments plays a role. In Europe, while there is rapid growth in renewable energy, integrating it effectively into the grid remains a challenge. In Asia, the situation is more diverse, with both rapid renewable energy expansion and a continued heavy reliance on fossil fuels. To tackle these issues effectively, it is crucial to address both distribution and supply simultaneously. Mary: Generative AI requires significant energy, prompting the question: how do we ensure reliable access to the grid? In New York City, I see both opportunity and challenge in the grid. The U.S. grid, built mostly in the '60s and '70s, lacks reliability and resilience, with 70% of transmission lines over 25 years old. We see the potential of AI to help address major challenges, but its success depends on modernizing the grid and data centers. Industrial IoT can play a key role in creating smart, more secure grids that maximize available energy, support diverse energy sources and enable predictive maintenance. Adele: We are partnering with customers eager for digital transformation, including energy companies supporting critical national infrastructure. Leveraging this shift, we are focusing on creating more sustainable solutions and we're building smart grids that prioritize efficiency. While AI is still in its early stages, ongoing collaboration and partnership with utilities is vital to ensure flexibility and adaptability for their evolving needs. Interested in learning more about the future of energy and the influence of AI? Join me in person as I lead a discussion about this topic at Cisco Live US in San Diego from June 8-12. The session will take place on Tuesday, June 10 from 2 to 2:30pm PT, and you can register here. Source: Gartner, [10 Performance Metrics to Improve Data Center Sustainability], [Henrique Cecci, Autumn Stanish], [14 February 2025] GARTNER is a registered trademark and service mark of Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates in the U.S. and internationally and is used herein with permission. All rights reserved. View original content here. Visit 3BL Media to see more multimedia and stories from Cisco Systems Inc.

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