Russia watches Israel-Iran crisis with few tools to intervene

Miami Herald

7 hours ago

Russia is watching Israel's bombardment of Iran with mounting concern for the survival of a key ally, though the Kremlin recognizes it has few levers to influence the escalating conflict in the Middle East.
Iran hasn't asked for Russian help and Moscow doesn't plan to offer any defense assistance, according to a person close to the Kremlin. No one can stop Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu from pursuing the bombing, and Russia won't be able to act as a mediator to stop the conflict if the goal is regime change, the person said, asking not to be identified discussing sensitive issues.
"At the moment, mediation does not seem likely," said Fyodor Lukyanov, head of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, a think tank that advises the Kremlin. "If it comes to some form of behind-the-scenes diplomacy, Russia is more likely to play a role between Iran and the United States - Israel's interest in negotiations is not apparent."
Russia has deepened its ties with Iran since President Vladimir Putin ordered the 2022 invasion of Ukraine and triggered Europe's biggest conflict since World War II. Iran has provided Russia with hundreds of combat drones used to attack targets in Ukraine, and the U.S. and Europe last year accused it of supplying ballistic missiles to Moscow, though Tehran denied the allegation.
Russia, which built Iran's atomic power plant at Bushehr, took part in international negotiations that led to a landmark 2015 accord restricting the Islamic Republic's nuclear program in return for an easing of sanctions. U.S. President Donald Trump pulled out of the deal in his first term.
Putin offered to help mediate a resolution to the Israel-Iran conflict during a nearly hour-long phone call with Trump on Saturday in which he warned of "unpredictable consequences" for the entire Middle East from the crisis.
"The situation is currently on a path of further galloping escalation," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters Tuesday.
The Russian leader, who also spoke to Netanyahu and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian on Friday, had proposed taking Tehran's enriched uranium stockpile before Israel's attack halted U.S.-Iran negotiations aimed at reaching a nuclear deal.
"A joint peace plan between Russia and the U.S. is possible, which would strengthen Russia's global standing and create a foundation for the U.S. to consider lifting anti-Russian sanctions," said Sergei Markov, a political consultant close to the Kremlin.
Any such deal would bolster Putin's relationship with Trump just as the U.S. is increasingly distancing itself from efforts to end Russia's war in Ukraine. Even short term, though, Moscow's war machine may benefit.
"For Russia, Israel's attack on Iran could be as much of a geopolitical jackpot as the election of Donald Trump," said Ruslan Pukhov, a Moscow-based defense expert. "The sheer aggressiveness of Israel's strikes will weaken the West's moral case against Russia, while a war with Iran will likely raise oil prices - dashing hopes of cutting Moscow's vital war revenues."
A new Middle East war would divert global attention from Russia's actions in Ukraine and likely trigger a shift in U.S. military support from Kyiv to aiding Israel, according to Pukhov.
Still, after the sudden overthrow of Russia's Syrian ally President Bashar Al-Assad by rebels in December, the Kremlin has a lot to lose from an extended U.S.-backed Israeli military campaign that wrecks Iran's infrastructure and may lead to the demise of the regime in Tehran.
Joint projects including a North-South transportation corridor that would help ease sanctions pressure on both countries would potentially be at risk from a prolonged conflict and political instability in Tehran, according to Nikita Smagin, an expert on Russia-Iran ties.
"Russia sees the situation as potentially mirroring its experience with Assad in Syria," he said. "Suddenly finding itself dealing with a new and uncertain leadership, pushing out a partner it had relied on."
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-With assistance from Thomas Hall.
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