2026 NCAA men's basketball championship odds: 5 way-too-early title predictions
2026 NCAA men's basketball championship odds: 5 way-too-early title predictions
Freshmen don't win championships. That was my stance before the 2025 NCAA tournament, and my position has only hardened since watching Duke flame out in the Final Four and the national championship be played between two veteran-laden teams.
With that in mind, my favorite way-too-early picks to win the 2026 title aren't the teams winning on the recruiting trail and grabbing the top one-and-done prospects -- though that doesn't hurt. Rather, I like the teams that project to have a decent amount of returning players from rosters that won this year.
Of course, this is almost impossible to gauge right now with players hopping in and out of the transfer portal and others trying to get a read on their NBA draft stock, but I gave it a good effort to come up with five teams I think have a good shot to win the 2026 national championship.
First, let's take a look at odds for the early favorites at FanDuel.
Now, for my favorite way-too-early picks:
Arizona gave Duke its toughest game of the tournament prior to the Final Four, and though the Wildcats are losing leading scorer Caleb Love, three starters could be back for a team with an incoming class of players that includes two top-40 prospects -- one being five-star Koa Peat -- and LeBron James' youngest son, Bryce.
4. Michigan State (+3500)
The Spartans are tied for the longest odds of any team on my list, but with Tom Izzo as coach, they might also have the highest floor; because if nothing else, we know they'll make the tournament. To help with that, they'll likely return a handful of players from this year's Elite Eight team, including Jaxon Kohler, who scored a team-high 17 points in their loss to Auburn.
3. Purdue (+1400)
Only one player from Purdue's Sweet 16 roster this year was a senior, so there's a world where nearly the entire team is back in 2025-26. That includes four starters and Cousy award winner Braden Smith.
How does BYU top its deepest tournament run in more than a decade? Bringing in the top recruit from the class of 2025, AJ Dybantsa, certainly helps. But the 6-9 forward is going to need some help, and he could have it with the potential return of leading scorer Richie Saunders and fellow starters Keba Keita and Mawot Mag, among others.
1. Houston (+1200)
If Houston can keep a few or all of Emanuel Sharp, Milos Uzan, Joseph Tugler and Terrance Arceneaux to carry the tradition of toughness and deep tournament runs Kelvin Sampson has built, the Cougars will continue to be a national title contender. Especially with one of the best incoming recruiting classes, which already includes two five-star prospects and a third top-20 player.
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