XOM vs. CVX vs. COP: Which Oil Stock Is Wall Street's Best Pick in this Volatile Market?

Business Insider

5 hours ago

Oil prices fell for the second straight day on Tuesday as a ceasefire between Israel and Iran eased supply concerns and reversed the rally in oil stocks that was triggered when the conflict between the two countries began earlier this month. Oil prices might continue to be volatile, given geopolitical tensions and macro uncertainties. Bearing this backdrop in mind, we used TipRanks' Stock Comparison Tool to place Exxon Mobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX), and ConocoPhillips (COP) against each other to find the best oil stock despite the ongoing volatility, according to Wall Street analysts.
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Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) Stock
Energy giant Exxon Mobil's first-quarter earnings surpassed analysts' expectations but declined compared to the prior-year quarter due to lower oil prices amid fears that macro uncertainty and tariffs under the Trump administration would hit global demand. Nonetheless, higher volumes in the Permian Basin and Guyana and Exxon's cost reduction measures helped mitigate the impact of weak prices on earnings. Notably, Exxon Mobil's acquisition of Pioneer Natural has bolstered its position in the Permian Basin.
Meanwhile, the company continues to reward shareholders with attractive returns. In Q1 2025, Exxon returned $9.1 billion to shareholders through $4.3 billion in dividends and $4.8 billion in share repurchases. XOM stock offers a dividend yield of 3.5%.
Is Exxon Stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?
Recently, TD Cowen analyst Jason Gabelman reiterated a Buy rating on Exxon Mobil stock and increased the price target to $128 from $120, citing higher near-term earnings. Following investor meetings with management, the analyst stated that the company reiterated its potential to achieve a 10% annual earnings growth from 2024 to 2030 from de-risked projects. Gabelman noted that Exxon is satisfied with its current portfolio after executing $24 billion divestments since 2019.
Gabelman said that XOM stock remains a top pick, given its clear earnings growth from differentiated projects that support stable and growing cash returns in a variety of price backdrops. He highlighted that Exxon continues to differentiate itself from peers by pursuing projects where it is the operator, in contrast to the past, when it would partner with other international oil companies to derisk its portfolio.
Overall, Wall Street has assigned Exxon Mobil stock a Moderate Buy consensus rating based on eight Buys and six Holds. The average XOM stock price target of $123.14 indicates 13.7% upside potential. XOM stock is almost flat year-to-date.
Chevron (NYSE:CVX) Stock
Oil and gas giant Chevron slightly exceeded the Street's earnings expectations in Q1 2025, though EPS declined year-over-year as the company's upstream business was hit by lower oil prices. The bottom line was also impacted by a decline in refining margins on a year-over-year basis.
Meanwhile, Chevron said that it plans to make repurchases in the range of $2.5 billion to $3 billion in Q2 2025, marking a slowdown from the $3.9 billion worth of stock bought back in the first quarter. That said, the company reaffirmed its full-year buybacks target of $10 billion to $20 billion. Coming to dividends, with a quarterly dividend of $1.71, CVX stock offers a dividend yield of 4.6%.
All eyes are now on the final decision on the arbitration case with Exxon Mobil regarding Chevron's proposed acquisition of Hess Corporation. The case is focused on the applicability of Exxon Mobil's right of first refusal (ROFR) on Hess's 30% stake in the lucrative Stabroek block, which is part of Chevron's $53 billion acquisition of Hess.
Is CVX a Buy, Hold, or Sell?
Recently, Barclays analyst Betty Jiang reiterated a Hold rating on Chevron stock with a price target of $152. Considering Chevron's organic growth since 2023, Jiang believes that the Hess Corporation is now modestly accretive to the energy giant's cash flow multiples and leverage, but still dilutive on free cash flow yield.
Jiang sees balanced risk/reward around the arbitration outcome related to the Hess acquisition.
Overall, Chevron stock earns a Moderate Buy consensus rating based on 10 Buys, six Holds, and two Sell recommendations. The average CVX stock price target of $159.50 indicates 11.1% upside potential. CVX stock is flat on a year-to-date basis.
ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) Stock
COP stock has declined about 10% so far this year due to market challenges and concerns about the impact on demand due to a potential slowdown. ConocoPhillips delivered market-beating first-quarter results, as the impact of lower oil prices was offset by higher production, supported by the Marathon Oil acquisition.
ConocoPhillips distributed $2.5 billion to shareholders in Q1 2025, including $1.5 billion via share repurchases and $1.0 billion through dividends. COP stock offers a dividend yield of 3.3%.
Given a volatile macro backdrop, ConocoPhillips reduced its full-year capital expenditure and operating cost guidance.
Is COP a Good Stock to Buy Now?
Earlier this month, Citi analyst Alastair Syme lowered the price target for ConocoPhillips stock to $115 from $140 but reiterated a Buy rating. The 4-star analyst highlighted two reasons for COP stock's underperformance: investor skepticism toward the Marathon Oil acquisition and the decision to increase unit capital intensity by 25% to fund growth. However, Syme views the Marathon deal as a strategic move that will extend the life and improve the efficiency of existing assets. He expects the consolidation in the maturing shale plays to reduce costs and optimize capital allocation and bolster COP's position in key basins. Syme also noted COP's portfolio strength, a disciplined capital strategy, and strong balance sheet, which support resilience in a lower-price backdrop.
Syme sees the pullback in the stock as a value opportunity due to ConocoPhillips' resilience, solid fundamentals, and long-term growth prospects. While the analyst slashed COP stock's price target to reflect a reduced terminal growth rate and higher cost of equity, he sees 'substantial upside' ahead. Syme finds COP stock's valuation compelling, noting that it trades at a 15% to 25% compared to the large-cap U.S. integrated oil companies such as Exxon Mobil and Chevron, while offering similar growth and defensiveness like the integrated energy majors.
On TipRanks, ConocoPhillips stock scores a Strong Buy consensus rating based on 16 Buys and two Hold recommendations. The average COP stock price target of $113.50 indicates about 27% upside potential.
Conclusion
Wall Street is highly bullish on ConocoPhillips stock and cautiously optimistic on Exxon Mobil and Chevron. Analysts see higher upside potential in COP stock compared to the other two oil stocks. Their bullish stance is backed by ConocoPhillips' solid balance sheet, diversified business model, and the ability to navigate a challenging environment.