[Editorial] Avoid overoptimism

Korea Herald

2 days ago

NK begins to dismantle loudspeakers; Strong military is basis for detente
North Korea on Saturday began dismantling some of its loudspeakers installed along the border for noise campaigns against South Korea, according to the Joint Chiefs of Staff.
The move is encouraging in that the North seemingly took a corresponding measure after the South finished removing its anti-Pyongyang loudspeakers. But it is premature to conclude based on this response alone that inter-Korean tensions have begun to thaw.
The South Korean military suspended the propaganda broadcasts it had been sending to North Korea through its loudspeakers on June 11.
About eight hours later, the North turned off its loudspeakers that since last year had jarred the nerves of South Korean residents in border towns by blaring eerie noises.
However, Kim Yo-jong, a high-ranking official of the North Korean Workers' Party and sister of its leader Kim Jong-un, said on July 28 that the South's suspension of loudspeaker broadcasts was not worthy of evaluation. She also said that there is no way for the North to sit across from the South for talks.
Yet, Seoul took another step to appease Pyongyang. On Aug. 7, it postponed about half of some 40 field training drills in the annual South Korea-US combined Ulchi Freedom Shield military exercise set to take place later this month.
Then two days later, the North was spotted dismantling some of its loudspeakers.
North Korea's removal of loudspeakers could be seen as a sign of positive change in South-North relations. Pyongyang has ignored Seoul since it ended communication with the South unilaterally in April 2023. But overoptimism is dangerous.
Even though the government in Seoul seeks to ease inter-Korean tensions, it should not make one-sided concessions. It should not try to meet the North's unreasonable demands, either. However, the Lee administration's measures toward North Korea are worrisome. It may be going too far to appease the North.
The decision to push back some training of the Ulchi Freedom Shield came after Kim Yo-jong condemned the South Korea-US joint drills.
After her condemnation, South Korea's Unification Minister Chung Dong-young reportedly said he would suggest to the president that the military exercise be rescheduled, and part of it actually was rescheduled. It is hard to exclude the possibility that South Korea might have first asked to postpone parts of the exercise in an effort to curry favor with the North. But soldiers who train less or do not train at all would not be able to defend their country in a time of emergency.
South Korea's military strength reportedly decreased from 560,000 in 2019 to 450,000 in July this year. Two years ago, it fell below the 500,000 mark regarded as the minimum level needed in the state of armistice between South and North Korea. Now, it is 50,000 short of that very level. Due to the decrease in military strength, the number of division-level units is said to have gone down from 59 in 2006 to 42. Diminishing force and unit dissolutions could produce ill effects for national security in many ways.
South Korea must not forget that Kim Jong-un has defined South Korea as its unchangeable No. 1 enemy state. The North, while persistently upgrading its nuclear weapons and missiles, has even accumulated combat experience by sending its soldiers to Russia to fight against Ukraine. It is also expanding weapons and technology deals with Russia.
China and Russia conduct joint marine training, posing a great threat to East Asia. There are growing calls in Washington for South Korea to take on more leading roles in responding to the North's threats. It is part of a strategy for US forces, including in Korea, to be operated flexibly to focus on checking China.
It is hasty at this stage to view North Korea's dismantling of some of its loudspeakers favorably. Above all, a strong military must be the basis of steps to relax tensions with North Korea.