Canada's job crisis? Student unemployment skyrockets to 14.2% — is a recession here already?
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How Is the Youth Job Market Overall in Canada?
Is the US Trade War Making Things Worse?
Who's Being Hit Hardest by the Tariffs?
Is a Recession on the Horizon for Canada?
Is There Any Optimism for Students?
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For many Canadian students, this summer job hunt has been tougher than ever, with the unemployment rate for students looking for summer work soaring to 17.4%, the highest it's been in a non-pandemic year since the 2009 recession, a stark warning sign that some economists say could mean trouble ahead for the broader economy, as per a report.Economic researcher at Toronto Metropolitan University, Viet Vu, said that, 'That's really concerning to me,' adding, 'Oftentimes, youth unemployment is a leading indicator to what could be a recession,' as quoted in the CP24 report.The latest figures from Statistics Canada's Labour Force Survey reveal that 17.4% of full-time students aged 15 to 24, who planned to return to school this fall, were without a job this June, according to the report. That's a significant jump from 15.8% just a year earlier, as per the CP24 report.Vu explained that, 'The reason why this is bad is when you look at how an economy is doing, you look at how many people are getting fired and how many people are getting hired -- and oftentimes, when companies squeeze their budget ... the first positions to go tend to be the most junior,' as quoted in the report. Vu added that, 'Which tells you that these companies aren't doing well because they can't afford to hire a summer student," as quoted by CP24.ALSO READ: Elon Musk's Grok is now working for the US government — here's what that means However, Statistics Canada's unemployment rate for the broader 'youth' category, which includes all 15- to 24-year-olds, not just students, stood at 14.2% in June, which has increased by 0.7 percentage points from last year and is well above the pre-pandemic average of 10.8% between 2017 and 2019, as reported by CP24.Economists have pointed out that the US trade war has led to the growing student unemployment rate because many companies are choosing not to take on new hires due to the amount of uncertainty that comes with constantly changing US tariffs on Canadian exports to America, according to the report.The director and economist at the Centre for Future Work, Jim Stanford, pointed out that, 'This has been a brutal summer for students to look for a job... the openings are just not there,' as quoted by CP24. He explained that, 'I think the blame for the high student unemployment rate rests solely at Donald Trump's doorstep,' adding that, 'In the last few months, companies have had no idea where the economy is going. The last thing they're going to want to do is take on a few extra heads for the summer," as quoted in the report.ALSO READ: 15 million Americans just got bad news - Judge reverses rule that would've wiped medical debt from credit reports While the border city of Windsor, in Ontario, recorded the highest unemployment rate among all demographics in June with 11.2%, which shows that the tariffs have had a major impact on Canadian industries, as reported by CP24.Even though Stanford isn't ready to say a recession is guaranteed to happen just yet, he has warned that, 'We've all been watching for signs that the toll of the Trump tariffs could push Canada into a recession — and if he goes ahead with the 35 per cent tariffs, we could have a recession. Not yet, though," as quoted in the report.A senior economist at job search site Indeed, Brendon Bernard, said there is a "silver lining: the year-over-year increase in the student unemployment rate has narrowed compared to previous years," as quoted by CP24 report. The rate rose from 11.9% in 2023 to 15.8% in 2024, but climbed more modestly this year to 17.4%, reported CP24. Bernard said, 'There's been some caution that employers have undertaken because the situation could go in multiple directions,' as quoted in the report.Because many companies are cutting costs, and entry-level or short-term roles, like student jobs, are usually the first to go.Possibly. Economists say youth unemployment often signals broader economic downturns ahead, as per the report.
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Time of India
an hour ago
- Time of India
Trump tariff blitz unleashes delayed shock to global economy
Bloomberg Live Events Bloomberg Four months after Donald Trump shocked the world and roiled markets by unveiling a placard full of tariff rates at the White House Rose Garden, his revisions unveiled Thursday generated a more subdued response among at an average of 15%, the world is still facing some of the steepest US tariffs since the 1930s, roughly six times higher than they were a year ago. Trump's latest volley outlined minimum 10% baseline levies, with rates of 15% or more for countries with trade surpluses with the far, the global economy has held up better than many economists expected after Trump's initial tariff blitz . A rush to beat the elevated rates spurred a front-loading of exports, aiding many Asian economies and shielding US consumers from price spikes.'For the rest of the world, this is a serious demand shock,' Raghuram Rajan , former India central bank governor and chief economist of the International Monetary Fund , who is now a professor at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, told Bloomberg TV on Friday. 'You will see a lot of central banks contemplating cutting as the rest of the world slows somewhat in the face of these tariffs.'The months of negotiations, marked by Trump's social-media threats against US allies and foes alike, ended with new rates that were largely in line or lower than those on April 2, which were paused after stocks plummeted and bond yields surged. Still, there were some shocks, such as a punitive 39% rate for imports from Switzerland and an increase on some Canadian goods to 35%.Wall Street traders drove stocks to their worst session since May, fuelled by weak jobs and manufacturing data. The S&P 500 fell 1.5% as of 11:17 a.m. New York on US two-year debt — among the most sensitive to changes in monetary policy — slumped 21 basis points to a one-month low at 3.75% as money markets added aggressively to wagers on Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts. The Bloomberg Dollar Index tumbled as much as 1%, snapping a six-day Trump's new rates provide some certainty to manufacturers, plenty of tariff uncertainty remains. The US president is expected to unveil separate tariffs on imports of pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, critical minerals and other key industrial products in the coming weeks. And US courts are still assessing the legality of the 'reciprocal' past four months have also shown an increased willingness by Trump to use tariffs to settle geopolitical scores. While the 'Liberation Day' rates followed a crude formula linked broadly to a nation's trade deficit, the ensuing numbers appeared more arbitrary. Trump threatened Brazil over domestic politics, India over its ties with Russia and Canada over plans to recognise a Palestinian the new levies go ahead in seven days as planned and if deals on car tariffs with the European Union, Japan and South Korea stick, Bloomberg Economics estimates the average US tariff rate will rise to 15.2% from 13.3% — up significantly from just 2.3% before Trump took office.'It's a very high tariff wall,' said Deborah Elms, head of trade policy of the Hinrich Foundation. 'The cost is going to be significantly higher for American companies and American consumers who will respond surely by buying less.'Applying model results used by the Federal Reserve in the first trade war, Bloomberg Economics calculates the 12.8-percentage-point hike in the average tariff since Trump came back into office could cut US GDP by 1.8% and lift core prices by 1.1% over a period of two to three create downside risks for exporters that rely on US demand Economics reckon Canada and Mexico, which has an additional 90 days to negotiate, are 'well placed to weather the storm' thanks to carve outs for compliant goods compliant with the USMCA trade deal. The EU, Japan and South Korea — all with 15% rates — also come off better than by contrast, was hit hard with a tariff of 39% on its products. The franc was initially among the worst performing major currencies on Friday after the announcement, but it rebounded after weaker-than-expected US jobs Trade Representative Jamieson Greer cast the negotiations with Switzerland as complicated in a Bloomberg Television interview Friday, noting that the country has a large trade deficit with the US and pointing to its pharmaceutical industry exports.'They ship enormous amounts of pharmaceuticals to our country. We want to be making pharmaceuticals in our country. So this is a challenging situation,' Greer more broadly indicated that talks would continue with many economies eager to lower the rates Trump is setting.'I woke up this morning to a number of trade ministers texting me and emailing me,' he said. 'I'm always going to talk to these folks, and you know, if they have proposals, you know, I'll talk to them and I'll brief the president.'Thursday's tariff news didn't apply to China. Trump is set to make a call on whether to extend a tariff truce after talks wrapped in Stockholm this week. A Chinese official earlier said the two sides agreed to keep levies at their current levels for now, part of a trade truce after President Xi Jinping's government cut off the US from rare earth magnets in the wake of the April 2 did include a provision to impose a 40% additional tariff on goods deemed to be transshipped, a measure that appeared aimed at China, but it lacked clarity on how such a ruling will be made.'This provides a bit more clarity but there remains substantial uncertainty for manufacturers,' said Jonathan Kearns, Sydney-based chief economist at money manager Challenger Ltd. 'We've seen numerous changes in the US tariff regime to date and there could always be more. Companies will be wary of investing and setting plans while uncertainty remains.'Kearns, a former central bank official, said he expects greater pass through to the US consumer in the months on Friday downplayed concerns about the lack of clarity over transshipped goods.'Sometimes when companies say we want certainty, what they mean is we want a different outcome,' he said on Bloomberg Trump administration is hoping the new tariff regime will bring in revenue, shrink the trade deficit and spur companies to set up factories on US shores — all without driving up prices or cratering since Trump's Rose Garden rollout in April, he's faced criticism for over promising on trade deals after he and aides vowed to broker numerous agreements, with at least one pledging '90 deals in 90 days.' 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While the EU has placed tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles and others have mulled similar curbs on cheap Chinese goods, most have eschewed Trump's protectionist push.'While we haven't returned entirely to a 'law of the jungle' system, we have taken several huge strides back in that direction,' said Stephen Olson, a former US trade negotiator now with the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute.'Don't assume this is the end of the story,' he added. 'Trump regards this as an ongoing reality show. More 'deals' or further tariff increases are almost certain to follow.'
Time of India
an hour ago
- Time of India
US tariff more biased against Indian automotive, tyre industries as compared to Asian peers: ICRA
Live Events (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our Economic Times WhatsApp channel New Delhi: The 25 per cent US tariff on Indian exports places domestic auto component industry and tyre makers in an unfavourable position as compared with Asian peers like Japan, Vietnam, and Indonesia, which face lower duties, rating firm Icra said on US administration has announced imposition of the tariff on all goods coming from India from August 7."Imposition of a 25 per cent tariff by the US on Indian imports has raised concerns across India's automotive and tyre industries, both of which maintain substantial export exposure to the US market," it the US accounting for 27 per cent of India's auto component exports and 17 per cent of tyre exports, the tariff hike places Indian manufacturers at a disadvantage compared to Asian peers such as Japan, Vietnam, and Indonesia, which face lower or preferential duties, Icra increased tariffs could dent the competitiveness of Indian suppliers, especially in off-highway and replacement tyre segments, and across various automotive components, it Indian tyre exporters previously enjoyed a modest advantage over Chinese competitors, that edge may now be offset by the lower tariff rates granted to other Southeast Asian component exporters, particularly those heavily reliant on the US market, are expected to diversify their geographies and improve cost efficiencies to lessen the impact, it auto components industry reported a turnover of USD 80.2 billion (Rs 6.73 lakh crore) for FY2025, a growth of around 10 per cent as compared with of auto components grew by 8 per cent to USD 22.9 billion (Rs 1,92,346 crore) in FY25 from USD 21.2 billion (Rs 1,75,960 crore) in FY24.
Mint
2 hours ago
- Mint
Elon Musk's Tesla fined over ₹1,996 crore in Florida autopilot crash case; jury flags ‘responsibility' amid tech failure
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'This will open the floodgates,' said Miguel Custodio, a car crash lawyer not involved in the Tesla case. 'It will embolden a lot of people to come to court.' The case also included startling charges by lawyers for the family of the deceased, 22-year-old, Naibel Benavides Leon, and for her injured boyfriend, Dillon Angulo. They claimed Tesla either hid or lost key evidence, including data and video recorded seconds before the accident. Tesla said it made a mistake after being shown the evidence and honestly hadn't thought it was there. 'We finally learned what happened that night, that the car was actually defective,' said Benavides' sister, Neima Benavides. 'Justice was achieved.' Tesla has previously faced criticism that it is slow to cough up crucial data by relatives of other victims in Tesla crashes, accusations that the car company has denied. In this case, the plaintiffs showed Tesla had the evidence all along, despite its repeated denials, by hiring a forensic data expert who dug it up. 'Today's verdict is wrong," Tesla said in a statement, 'and only works to set back automotive safety and jeopardize Tesla's and the entire industry's efforts to develop and implement lifesaving technology,' They said the plaintiffs concocted a story 'blaming the car when the driver – from day one – admitted and accepted responsibility.' In addition to a punitive award of $200 million, the jury said Tesla must also pay $43 million of a total $129 million in compensatory damages for the crash, bringing the total borne by the company to $243 million. 'It's a big number that will send shock waves to others in the industry,' said financial analyst Dan Ives of Wedbush Securities. 'It's not a good day for Tesla.' Tesla said it will appeal. Even if that fails, the company says it will end up paying far less than what the jury decided because of a pre-trial agreement that limits punitive damages to three times Tesla's compensatory damages. Translation: $172 million, not $243 million. But the plaintiff says their deal was based on a multiple of all compensatory damages, not just Tesla's, and the figure the jury awarded is the one the company will have to pay. It's not clear how much of a hit to Tesla's reputation for safety the verdict in the Miami case will make. Tesla has vastly improved its technology since the crash on a dark, rural road in Key Largo, Florida, in 2019. But the issue of trust generally in the company came up several times in the case, including in closing arguments Thursday. The plaintiffs' lead lawyer, Brett Schreiber, said Tesla's decision to even use the term Autopilot showed it was willing to mislead people and take big risks with their lives because the system only helps drivers with lane changes, slowing a car and other tasks, falling far short of driving the car itself. Schreiber said other automakers use terms like 'driver assist' and 'copilot' to make sure drivers don't rely too much on the technology. 'Words matter,' Schreiber said. 'And if someone is playing fast and lose with words, they're playing fast and lose with information and facts.' Schreiber acknowledged that the driver, George McGee, was negligent when he blew through flashing lights, a stop sign and a T-intersection at 62 miles an hour before slamming into a Chevrolet Tahoe that the couple had parked to get a look at the stars. The Tahoe spun around so hard it was able to launch Benavides 75 feet through the air into nearby woods where her body was later found. It also left Angulo, who walked into the courtroom Friday with a limp and cushion to sit on, with broken bones and a traumatic brain injury. But Schreiber said Tesla was at fault nonetheless. He said Tesla allowed drivers to act recklessly by not disengaging the Autopilot as soon as they begin to show signs of distraction and by allowing them to use the system on smaller roads that it was not designed for, like the one McGee was driving on. 'I trusted the technology too much,' said McGee at one point in his testimony. 'I believed that if the car saw something in front of it, it would provide a warning and apply the brakes.' The lead defense lawyer in the Miami case, Joel Smith, countered that Tesla warns drivers that they must keep their eyes on the road and hands on the wheel yet McGee chose not to do that while he looked for a dropped cellphone, adding to the danger by speeding. Noting that McGee had gone through the same intersection 30 or 40 times previously and hadn't crashed during any of those trips, Smith said that isolated the cause to one thing alone: 'The cause is that he dropped his cellphone.'
