‘I may do it, I may not': Why Trump's unpredictability on Iran could be his biggest asset

Telegraph

4 hours ago

Donald Trump made a dramatic exit from the G7 summit in Canada and then hunkered down with his National Security Council in the White House situation room to plot his next moves on Iran.
Then on Wednesday he was asked by reporters whether he was about to send his bombers into action.
'I may do it. I may not do it,' he said on the South Lawn after chatting with construction workers putting up a 27-metre flagpole.
'I mean, nobody knows what I'm going to do. I can tell you this, that Iran's got a lot of trouble.'
It is a familiar playbook.
In a recent analysis of Mr Trump's leadership style, Julius Kirimi Sindi, an expert in business strategy said the president was not so much governing as running a non-stop negotiation.
'This uncertainty forces people to constantly second-guess their positions, giving Trump the upper hand in any negotiation or political battle,' he wrote.
'The strategy keeps both allies and enemies in a perpetual state of anxiety, which in turn, solidifies his control.'
Not for the first time, the president has deployed intentional ambiguity as he keeps friends and foes guessing about his intentions.
And once again, he is seeking to gain the upper hand by deploying a trusted 'art of the deal' technique to a tricky geopolitical challenge.
His final decision could be the most consequential of his presidency. Join with Israel in attacking Iran with B2 warplanes armed with bunker busting bombs and it could prevent Tehran from ever building a nuclear weapon.
But it might also unleash attacks on American interests in the Middle East, and tear apart his Maga coalition at home.
urging him not to become entangled in another foreign war.
Mr Trump was keeping his options open for now, according to Robert Shapiro, professor of political science, in the hope that something would turn up.
'I think in the best of all worlds for him, he would be perfectly fine with a negotiated settlement, which would give him the prospects of winning the Nobel Peace Prize, which is something he's always talked about,' he said.
'On the other hand, he likes the idea of clean military victory by dropping a bomb and claiming credit for that.'
The strategy of unpredictability has been at the heart of this White House.
It was how he handled his trade war, for example.
A week after 'liberation day,' a day before his steep tariffs were due to go into effect and one hour before the stock market was due to close, journalists peppered the president with questions about his levies and the turmoil they had unleashed.
Were they a bargaining chip to secure better deals? Or were they here to stay as part of an attempt to reshape the entire global economy?
'It can both be true,' he said. 'There can be permanent tariffs, and there can also be negotiations.'
And he has repeatedly fended off questions about his Ukraine strategy, punting questions about Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, and his desire for peace into the future.
'I can't tell you that, but I'll let you know in about two weeks,' Trump told reporters in the Oval Office,' he said seven weeks ago.
The idea may be to keep adversaries on their toes, but it is just as awkward for allies.
The G7 summit came and went without a joint statement on Ukraine in part because no one is sure where Mr Trump stands.
On Wednesday evening, standing in front of reporters in the Oval Office, Mr Trump once again parried questions about whether he was about to launch strikes on Iran or allow more time to begin negotiations. Is he for real or is it all a monumental bluff?
'I have ideas as to what to do,' he said. 'I like to make a final decision one second before it's due.'