5 key questions on Israel's strikes, Iran's response, and the risk of a wider war

Yahoo

20 hours ago

Israel targeted nuclear and military sites in Iran in airstrikes early Friday morning.
The strikes are a major escalation that threatens to expand into a wider regional conflict.
These are five key questions in the wake of Israel's air war.
Israel's widespread airstrikes on Iran effectively damaged the country's nuclear and ballistic missile programs, which officials said was a primary goal.
The strikes hit over 100 targets, including Iran's air defense systems, missile launchers, and senior military leadership.
Now, all eyes are on Tehran's response and the specter of a wider conflict. And there are questions over whether the US will get pulled into the fight.
Here are some main questions stemming from the attacks.
Iran initially responded to the attack by firing 100 drones at Israel on Friday, which the Israel Defense Forces said were mostly intercepted.
Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said Israel "should anticipate a severe punishment" in response to the strikes, and that Iran "won't let them go unpunished."
Hours later, the IDF said Iran had launched "dozens" of missiles at Israel in what appeared to be several waves. The military said its air defenses were actively intercepting threats, and video footage captured several impacts.
"The Iranian response might be delayed or split into multiple phases," said Matthew Savill, the director of military sciences at the UK-based Royal United Services Institute think tank.
"But their main weapon will be ballistic missiles," he added, "which have the best chance of inflicting damage on Israel, whereas drone and cruise missile attacks will face more extensive Israeli defences."
It is not unprecedented for Iran to launch powerful weapons at Israel; Tehran fired hundreds of missiles and drones at its foe in April and October last year. However, those strikes were mostly intercepted by Israel and its allies, including the US.
Beyond direct strikes, another way that Iran could retaliate is through the so-called "Axis of Resistance," a vast network of militias it is aligned with throughout the region, including Lebanon's Hezbollah and Yemen's Houthis.
Israel has been battling these forces, and Hamas in Gaza, since the October 7, 2023, attacks.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has long advocated for destroying Iran's nuclear program, which Tehran claims is for civilian purposes.
The US, however, has been trying to reach a new deal with Iran (and has threatened violence if a deal isn't done). The strikes could derail those efforts and even goad Iran into racing to build a nuclear arsenal.
Israel's strikes threaten to spark a wider regional conflict, analysts at London's Chatham House think tank warned Friday.
"Far from being a preventive action, this strike risks triggering a broader regional escalation and may inadvertently bolster the Islamic Republic's domestic and international legitimacy," Sanam Vakil, Chatham House's Middle East and North Africa program director, said.
Last year, Tehran reportedly threatened to target Gulf state oil facilities if they allowed Israel access to their airspace for strikes against Iran. It's unclear what routes Israeli aircraft used in the attacks, but there's been speculation Israel could exploit the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria to get its aircraft directly over Iraq for strikes.
Russia is also a close ally of Iran, and the two have increased their defense cooperation since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
However, Nikita Smagin, an analyst at the Carnegie Endowment, said in December that the Kremlin is unlikely to come to Iran's direct aid in order to avoid direct confrontations with Israel and the US.
The US has helped arm and defend Israel, notably in the wake of Hamas' October 7 attacks. The world will be watching to see how President Donald Trump responds.
Trump has sought to broker a new nuclear deal with Iran, and in the wake of the Israeli attacks overnight, warned of "even more brutal" strikes from Israel if Iran refuses a new agreement.
Last year, the US Navy helped shoot down Iranian missiles fired at Israel in two major attacks, and it has rotated multiple aircraft carriers and many warships into the region since 2023, in a show of support for Israel and to deter its enemies, including Iran.
The US and other NATO countries have also defended international shipping routes in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden from attacks by the Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen.
The US has a substantial military presence in the Middle East, including naval forces, ground troops, and strike aircraft.
A Navy spokesperson told BI that the Carl Vinson Carrier Strike Group — consisting of an aircraft carrier, a cruiser, and three destroyers — is in the Arabian Sea.
There are also three American destroyers in the Red Sea and another in the Eastern Mediterranean.
All of these warships, and the carrier's dozens of embarked aircraft, are capable of carrying out air defense missions to defeat incoming drones and missiles.
IDF spokesperson Brig. Gen. Effie Defrin said Israel's strikes "significantly harmed" Iran's main uranium enrichment site at Natanz.
"For many years, the people of the Iranian regime made an effort to obtain nuclear arms in this facility," he said, adding that the site "has the necessary infrastructure to enrich uranium to a military grade."
The International Atomic Energy Agency has confirmed the site was struck, but the extent of the damage remains unverified.
Satellite imagery appeared to show significant damage at the surface level.
There was also a report Friday that Israel had struck Fordow, a nuclear fuel enrichment site guarded deep under a mountain.
The IDF said that Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps chief Hossein Salami and other senior military commanders were also killed in targeted strikes.
Read the original article on Business Insider