Opinion: Quebec Liberal leadership race a clash of visions
Five candidates are competing to succeed Dominique Anglade. Among them, former federal minister Pablo Rodriguez is widely seen as the front-runner.
However, within Liberal circles, a growing number of members are joining what they call the 'ABP Movement' — 'Anyone But Pablo.'
These critics argue that while Rodriguez is certainly the most recognizable candidate among the general public, that doesn't necessarily make him the best positioned to defeat the CAQ'S François Legault and the PQ's Paul St-Pierre Plamondon in 2026. And they may have a point.
Because Rodriguez carries significant political baggage. While extensive political experience can sometimes be an asset, his close association with former prime minister Justin Trudeau may prove more of a liability these days, especially given his long tenure as Trudeau's Quebec lieutenant.
Whenever Rodriguez will criticize the Legault government's handling of public finances, he'll be reminded that he was part of a federal government that posted record deficits year after year for a decade. Under his leadership, the QLP could struggle to rebuild its reputation as the party of sound economic management and fiscal responsibility.
When it comes to immigration, Rodriguez's past might again work against him. He was part of the ultra-multiculturalist government that mishandled the Roxham Rd. situation. As leader, he could find it difficult to bring back nationalists and soft federalists who have shifted their support to the CAQ since 2018.
Rodriguez is also seen by many as being too closely tied to Montreal. For a party that desperately needs to expand its base beyond the metropolitan area, this would potentially be a serious obstacle.
So, this is more than just a typical leadership race — it's a battle between two ideological currents within the Liberal family.
On one side, the Trudeau-style Liberals, more inclined to the left and in favour of multiculturalism. They're usually backing Rodriguez.
On the other, the fiscally conservative, more nationalist Liberals. Those who want to see their party go back to the core values that brought the party success during the years of Robert Bourassa and Jean Charest. Their vote is currently split between two high-profile candidates: Karl Blackburn, former MNA and president of the Conseil du patronat du Québec; and Charles Milliard, former CEO of the Fédération des chambres de commerce du Québec.
This division in the centre-right vote should normally work to Rodriguez's advantage. But it's not that easy.
The QLP's voting system resembles a general election: It's not the total number of votes that matters, but how candidates perform in each riding, which all carry an equal amount of points, regardless of the number of party members. That means a vote in the West Island — where Liberal membership is dense — is worth less than in regions like Saguenay or Gaspésie.
Given that Rodriguez's support is mainly concentrated around the Montreal area, there's potential for surprises on June 14.
The stakes are high: This leadership race could drastically redefine what it means to be a Quebec Liberal.
Since Jean Lesage in the 1960s, Quebec Liberals have always taken pride on not being perceived as a mere provincial wing of their federal counterpart. Electing Rodriguez could blur that distinction in the eyes of many Quebecers — and further deepen the party's disconnect with francophone voters in the rest of the province.
The QLP now stands at a crossroads. Its 20,000 members are facing a defining choice that will determine whether the party will remain on the opposition benches for a long time, or if it will begin to reclaim its place as Quebec's traditional governing force — a role it has held for close to 150 years.
In less than two weeks, we'll know which path they've chosen.
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6 hours ago
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By signing up you consent to receive the above newsletter from Postmedia Network Inc. A welcome email is on its way. If you don't see it, please check your junk folder. The next issue of Sunrise will soon be in your inbox. Please try again Interested in more newsletters? Browse here. Despite his year from hell, Conservative party insiders — both Poilievre's friends and foes alike — say the path to victory may have its share of hurdles but that it's far from impossible. Anthony Koch, the managing principal at AK Strategies and former spokesman for Poilievre, said the party needs to recognize that change is necessary and carefully focus on 'winning' issues. 'We have to move on from the last election,' he said. First, Poilievre will need to convince his fellow Tories that he deserves a second shot and that he's their best bet to win the next general election. 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Many Conservatives point to the party's increased vote total to say they lost only because Trump handed Carney his ideal ballot-box question. The counter argument is that both major parties — not just the Tories — significantly increased their vote totals during the election because the tariff threat focused voters on choosing which of the two major parties and leaders was best able to deal with the threats from the south. Like most political leaders, some say that Poilievre is simply not the right person to be leader because too many Canadians don't like him and won't vote for him. One Conservative organizer said Poilievre is simply too arrogant to change or accept that he was only leading in the polls last year because the public wanted Trudeau out, not him in. One experienced Conservative campaign figure, not a Poilievre supporter, said there is no path to victory with Poilievre at the helm. 'We are just gearing up to lose another election,' he said. 'People aren't clamouring for change right now because they have it in Mark Carney.' Most Conservatives admit that Carney presents a whole new challenge for the party. Not only is he enjoying a luxurious public opinion honeymoon, voters also rate him highly on issues that historically favour the Tories, such as managing the economy. 'Conservatives can't win without winning on the economy and pocket-book issues,' said Dan Robertson, a former chief strategist for the Conservative party and the co-founder of ORB Advocacy, in an email. 'In the penultimate week of the campaign, a 2,800 sample poll by Focal Data (a U.K. research firm) showed that the Liberals led the Conservatives on three of the four most salient issues. More worryingly, it also revealed that the Conservatives failed to win convincingly on the economy, the price of housing and affordability in general.' Robertson said the Conservatives need to fight back on those issues, but also try to raise the salience of other issues, like crime and immigration. In a recent Abacus Data poll designed to measure the traits that Canadians want in a leader, Carney 'significantly outperforms' Poilievre on nearly every score. The gap, the poll from late July found, was particularly striking among 'accessible voters' who say they're open to voting for either party. The poll, based on surveys of 1,915 Canadian adults between July 10-15, found that Canadians see Carney as a calming force compared to Poilievre's combative public image. Sixty-nine per cent of respondents said Carney is 'calm and steady during uncertain times,' compared to 50 per cent for Poilievre, and 66 per cent said Carney 'avoids unnecessary conflict and doesn't pick fights for the sake of it,' compared to 44 per cent for Poilievre. David Coletto, chief executive of Abacus, concluded from his poll that Carney is more than just liked at this time by Canadians. 'He's seen as competent, principled, and measured, qualities that resonate strongly with the electorate right now.' For Poilievre, Coletto wrote, the picture is more complicated. Respondents gave him strong results on a number of questions, including a majority of Canadians (55 per cent) saying that the Tory leader 'understands ordinary Canadians.' The problem from the Conservatives' perspective — at least for now, months or years before the next election — is that Carney outscores Poilievre in nearly every way among the broad electorate. 'While his supporters see him in highly positive terms, and his ratings are strong within the Conservative voter universe, his alignment with broader public expectations is weaker,' Coletto wrote. 'Canadians are not vague or passive about what they want in a leader. They want someone who puts the country first, understands their challenges, and brings a clear, steady hand. Right now, Mark Carney is meeting those expectations better than Pierre Poilievre, not just with his own base, but with the people in the middle who will decide future elections. Poilievre faces other challenges too. There's a fine line between making changes so that you're the best possible candidate, but also not appearing to be so fungible that you're not authentic. And the advice coming to Poilievre is as contradictory as it is strident. One Conservative source said Poilievre needs to stop being the 'know-it-all nerd' because 'there's no charm in it.' Another Conservative source said Poilievre needs to go back to embracing his 'inner nerd' so that he comes across as more himself. Another area of possible change is in the team around him. After the election loss, it was assumed by many pundits and party faithful that dumping campaign manager, long-time ally and former girlfriend Jenni Byrne was a no-brainer. Byrne, like Poilievre, is seen as a sharp, seasoned political organizer but one who can alienate other Conservatives by being unnecessarily confrontational and insisting on an approach that sometimes comes across as 'my way or the highway.' Public fights with Conservative premiers Doug Ford of Ontario and Tim Houston of Nova Scotia, which many believe were largely triggered by Byrne's aggressive approach, were widely seen as own goals that were costly and avoidable. The two premiers, or at least those in their orbits, weren't the only Conservatives to endure Byrne's wrath over the years — and not want to come back for more. Byrne said earlier this month that she would not be the Conservatives' campaign manager for the next federal election, although she didn't rule out another role. One Conservative source said most other key members of Poilievre's circle, however, have remained. For Poilievre, a passionate policy wonk since his teen years, adjusting his platform in any significant way to make it more digestible or centrist might be for him the most contentious consideration. It may be a non-starter. For much of the post-election months, the party's strategy seems to have been conduct the post-mortem, keep the loyalists engaged, focus on the byelection and keep your head down until Carney's political honeymoon inevitably takes a step or two back. But Carney hasn't made it easy on the Tories. The new prime minister has moved his party swiftly to the centre-right on many issues: reducing personal income taxes, cancelling the consumer portion of the carbon tax and the digital services tax, reversing Trudeau's planned increase on capital gains tax, plans to reduce the size of the bureaucracy, investments in defence, support for pipelines and other infrastructure projects. That has left Poilievre and the Tories with less room to operate and mine for support. During one summer event, the contrast in styles between the popular prime minister and the embattled opposition leader couldn't have been much starker. As he shook hands, posed for photos and joked with Alberta Premier Danielle Smith about his hapless attempts to flip pancakes, Carney gave every indication that he was enjoying the Calgary Stampede, despite talk that these types of back-patting, hand-shaking events are far from his idea of a good time. According to a pool report, Poilievre, meanwhile, stayed in his car, apparently waiting for the United Brotherhood of Carpenters event to end. Or at least for the prime minister to leave. With a twisty, long journey in front of his desired path to Sussex Drive, Poilievre will need to show that same patience if he's to replace Carney any time soon on the much larger stage. National Post Our website is the place for the latest breaking news, exclusive scoops, longreads and provocative commentary. Please bookmark and sign up for our daily newsletter, Posted, here .
Winnipeg Free Press
6 hours ago
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