Macron compelled to recognise Palestine state

New Straits Times

5 days ago

PRESIDENT Emmanuel Macron's announcement that France would become the first Western member of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) to recognise a Palestinian state in September has caused diplomatic ructions from the Middle East through Europe to Washington.
But it did not come out of the blue.
When Macron visited the Egyptian town of Al-Arish on the border with Gaza in April, he was struck by the mounting humanitarian crisis and made clear on his return home that Paris would soon opt for recognition.
Working with Saudi Arabia, Macron came up with a plan to have France plus G7 allies Britain and Canada recognise Palestinian statehood, while pushing Arab states to adopt a softer stance towards Israel through a United Nations (UN) conference.
But despite weeks of talks he failed to get others on board. Three diplomats said London did not want to face the wrath of the United States, and Ottawa took a similar stance, leaving Macron to go it alone.
"It became increasingly apparent that we could not wait to get partners on board," said a French diplomat, adding that France would work to get more states on board ahead of a conference on a two-state solution in September.
Domestically Macron was under rising pressure to do something amid widespread anger at the harrowing images coming out of Gaza. Although with both Europe's biggest Muslim and Jewish communities and a polarised political landscape, there was no obvious course of action that would satisfy all sides.
Israel and its staunch supporter the US have blasted France's move, branding it a reward for Hamas whose attack on Israel on Oct 7, 2023 triggered the current war.
Macron had discussed the matter extensively with both President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in advance.
Trump said last Friday France's decision didn't "carry any weight" but added that Macron was "a good guy".
French officials previously considered an announcement at a conference scheduled for last month at the UN, co-hosted by France and Saudi Arabia, to sketch out a roadmap to a viable Palestinian state while also ensuring Israel's security.
But the conference was postponed amid intense US diplomatic pressure and after Israeli air strikes on Iran.
Macron's announcement last Thursday is linked to a rescheduled and rejigged version of the UN conference planned for yesterday and today.
Some analysts say Macron has used the carrot of recognition to extract concessions from Mahmoud Abbas, the president of the Palestinian Authority that is a moderate rival to Hamas, and other regional players.
"Macron here is acting as a catalyst to get the Palestinians to deliver on the needed reforms, to get the Arabs to deliver on a stabilisation force and the disarming of Hamas," said Rym Momtaz, editor-in-chief of the Strategic Europe blog run by the Carnegie Europe think tank.
Others say while recognition has symbolic value, there will still be no functioning Palestinian state whenever the war in Gaza comes to an end.
"What's the point of recognising a state if they're doing little to stop it from turning into ruins?" said Amjad Iraqi, senior analyst at International Crisis Group.
French officials point to months of intense Israeli lobbying to try to prevent Macron's move — and Netanyahu's fierce criticism of it — as evidence that it matters a lot to Israeli leaders.
Sources familiar with the matter say Israel's warnings to France had ranged from scaling back intelligence-sharing to complicating Paris' regional initiatives — even hinting at possible annexation of parts of the West Bank.
But French officials concluded that Netanyahu would do whatever he thought was in his interests in the West Bank anyway, regardless of what France did on recognition.
Israel's parliament voted last Wednesday in favour of a nonbinding declaration urging the government to apply Israeli law to the West Bank, widely seen as a de facto annexation of the territory.
That added to the urgency in Paris.
"If there is a moment in history to recognise a Palestinian state, even if it's just symbolic, then I would say that moment has probably come," said a senior French official.