Asia's manufacturing shows pockets of resilience amid trade turmoil—India surges, China slows

Mint

3 days ago

New Delhi: Manufacturing activity across Asia's export-driven economies showed a mixed picture in July, with early signs of resilience in some markets despite deepening global trade tensions and the US tariffs.
India and Vietnam posted gains, while China's factory momentum softened. Meanwhile, much of Southeast Asia continued to struggle, dragged down by weak external demand and persistent uncertainty around global supply chains.
The S&P Global ASEAN Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) edged into expansion territory in July, rising to 50.1 from 48.6 in June, just above the neutral 50 mark that separates growth from contraction.
The divergence in regional performance reflects broader shifts in global demand, China's ongoing economic challenges, and heightened geopolitical tensions that are beginning to reshape trade flows across Asia.
India, Vietnam report strong growth
India's manufacturing sector activity rose to a 16-month high in July on the back of expansion in output and new orders.
The HSBC India Manufacturing PMI, compiled by S&P Global, rose to 59.1 in July from 58.4 in June. It was 57.6 in May, 58.2 in April. and 58.1 in March. A reading above 50 indicates expansion.
The S&P Global Vietnam Manufacturing PMI was 52.4 in July, up from 48.9 in June and back above the 50 mark for the first time in four months.
Vietnam's manufacturing sector returned to growth in July, driven by a rebound in new orders and rising production, even as exports remained weak due to tariffs and employment neared stabilisation, the PMI survey said.
The Philippines and Thailand also recorded growth in manufacturing activity, though at a slower pace than India and Vietnam.
Rising for the second consecutive month, the S&P Global Philippines Manufacturing PMI edged up to 50.9 in July from 50.7 in June, signalling a modest but strengthening recovery, the sharpest improvement in operating conditions since April.
Despite reporting slower growth than India, Thailand's manufacturing sector expansion, like that of the Philippines, accelerated in July.
Thailand's Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.9 in July from 51.7 in June, staying above the 50 mark for a third consecutive month and recording the sharpest improvement in factory conditions in nearly a year.
China's momentum falters
In China, manufacturing momentum lost steam, underscoring persistent structural challenges in the world's second-largest economy.
The S&P Global China General Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.5 in July from 50.4 in June,
In contrast, the Global Manufacturing PMI, compiled by S&P Global and sponsored by J.P. Morgan, slipped from 50.4 in June to 49.7 in July, signalling a mild deterioration in business conditions, the third decline in four months.
Southeast Asia slows
In contrast, several Southeast Asian manufacturing hubs continued to face headwinds in July.
Indonesia's Manufacturing PMI edged up to 49.2 from 46.9 in June, marking a fourth consecutive month below the neutral 50 threshold, though the pace of contraction eased marginally.
Malaysia's PMI rose to 49.7 in July from 49.3 in June, signalling a slight improvement but still indicating a mild deterioration in manufacturing health. It was the softest decline recorded in five months.
Singapore's manufacturing momentum also softened, with the S&P Global PMI slipping to 51 in June from 51.5 in May. July data is expected on 5 August.
Outlook clouded by trade frictions
That said, the broader outlook remains clouded by escalating trade tensions, as Asian manufacturers grapple with a volatile global environment.
Last week, US President Donald Trump announced reciprocal tariffs on Indian exports, imposing a 25% duty starting this month, along with additional penalties for purchasing oil and military hardware from US-sanctioned Russia.
In comparison, tariffs on exports from Indonesia, the Philippines, and Cambodia are set at 19%, Vietnam at 20%, and Malaysia at 25%.
Meanwhile, most Chinese goods continue to face a 30% US tariff, though China has lowered its reciprocal duties on American products to 10%.
India, notably, is contending with higher reciprocal tariffs than many of its regional peers, raising fresh concerns for its export competitiveness.
To this extent, Goldman Sachs Economic Research, in its report last week, trimmed its real GDP growth forecasts for India by 10 basis points for 2025 and 20 basis points for 2026, citing the impact of Trump's reciprocal tariff on Indian imports.
The investment bank now projects India's economy to grow at 6.5% in 2025 and 6.4% in 2026.
'In our view, some of these tariffs are likely to be negotiated lower over time, and further downside risk to the growth trajectory mainly emanates from the uncertainty channel," Goldman Sachs said.