Ukraine reveals Russia's larger war strategy

Politico

05-06-2025

With help from Daniel Lippman
Subscribe here | Email Eric
A delegation of senior Ukrainian officials in Washington offered a stark message this week about the Kremlin's ambitions: Even as President DONALD TRUMP works to coax Moscow into peace talks, Russia has expansive plans to further occupy swathes of territory that could cut Ukraine off from the Black Sea.
Ukrainian military intelligence, shared with reporters Wednesday evening, indicates that Moscow is seeking to expand its footprint in eastern Ukraine. This includes seizing all of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions in the fall before creating a buffer zone along the northern border with Russia by the end of the year, said COLONEL PAVLO PALISA, deputy head of the office of the Ukrainian president VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY.
Moscow's plans for the following year are even more ambitious. Palisa told reporters gathered at the Ukrainian Embassy in Washington that Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN seeks to occupy the entirety of Ukraine east of the Dnipro River, which bisects the country.
Russia also hopes to seize the southern Ukrainian regions of Odessa and Mykolaiv, he said, which would cut Ukraine off from the Black Sea — a vital conduit for exports of Ukrainian grain.
'Unfortunately, they are not speaking about peace. They are preparing for war,' said Palisa, who briefed a bipartisan group of senators on Wednesday as part of a delegation led by Zelenskyy's chief of staff ANDRIY YERMAK.
It's unclear whether Russia can achieve these goals. Moscow is advancing slowly on the battlefield but has struggled to make the kind of large territorial gains seen early in the war.
Military analysts predict that Russia will increase the tempo of its operations in a summer offensive to increase pressure on Ukraine, but note that Moscow could struggle to keep up the pace into 2026. Russia shows no intention of wrapping up the war any time soon.
Western officials have repeatedly stated that they have seen nothing in their intelligence to suggest that Putin has climbed down from his two main goals in the conflict: to permanently anchor Ukraine to Russia and strike a grand bargain with the West that would renegotiate the post-Cold War security architecture in Europe.
This is what Russian officials mean when they talk about solving the 'root causes' of the conflict.
'The Russians want a deal. But they don't see the deal as primarily between them and the Ukrainians,' said GEORGE BEEBE, former director of the CIA's Russia analysis.
'They think this is a long-running geopolitical tug of war between Moscow and Washington,' he said at a briefing organized by the Center for the National Interest.
Russia laid out its lofty terms to end the war in a memo presented Monday during negotiations with Ukraine in Istanbul. It included demands for the international recognition of its annexation of the Crimean peninsula as well as four Ukrainian regions partially occupied by Moscow.
It called for Ukraine to permanently abandon its ambitions of joining NATO, and for a limit on the size of the country's armed forces — something that officials in Kyiv have indicated is a red line.
'I'm not sure Washington quite grasps the kind of deal that the Russians are looking for,' Beebe said.
The Inbox
MERZ MEETS TRUMP: German Chancellor FRIEDRICH MERZ made his way into the Oval Office today to meet with Trump and lived to tell the tale, our own Eli Stokols reports.
Despite some pre-meeting sniping from Trump allies such as RICHARD GRENELL, which seemed to presage potential tensions, Trump kept the meeting largely cordial. Barbs issued in the meeting were directed at former Chancellor ANGELA MERKEL, whom Merz also dislikes, and the Nord Stream 2 Pipeline, which Merz has opposed.
the meeting was soon overshadowed by Trump's comments about former adviser and tech mogul ELON MUSK. In the Oval Office, Trump said he 'had a great relationship' with Musk but now isn't sure where the two men stand. The two, hours later, launched a social media tirade against each other.
It wasn't entirely a surprise. Merz was invited to stay at Blair House, an honor not extended to other world leaders. But the close attention to the meeting, stemming from Merz's past tough comments towards the U.S., highlights how Trump has used Oval Office sprays with reporters as a cudgel against leaders with whom he has disputes.
Related: Trump 101: Inside world leaders' playbook for surviving the Oval Office meeting by Eli, and our own Robbie Gramer and Nick Taylor-Vaisey
XI AND TRUMP SPEAK: After not speaking for months, Trump finally got a phone call with Chinese leader XI JINPING, our colleague Megan Messerly and team reports.
The two hadn't spoken since Trump's inauguration and the president described it as a 'very good phone call.' Xi, according to Trump, invited the president to visit China. U.S. and Chinese leaders will also meet soon, with Washington represented by Treasury Secretary SCOTT BESSENT, Commerce Secretary HOWARD LUTNICK and Trade Representative JAMIESON GREER.
Trump made it seem like the call was exclusively about trade in his post on Truth Social. But the Chinese side was quick to note that Trump requested the call and said that Xi was the one to recommend a course correction in U.S.-China relations, noting that Taiwan was discussed.
Read: The 'Fundamental Mistake' in Trump's Trade War With China by our own Phelim Kine
MORGAN ORTAGUS OUT: MORGAN ORTAGUS, deputy special envoy to STEVE WITKOFF, will be leaving her role in his office and is expected to get a job elsewhere in the administration, according to three people familiar with the matter.
While in the office, she primarily focused on Lebanon and received praise from Republican senators for her work on the file. Her departure comes after she and Witkoff clashed as she sought to broaden her portfolio, the people said. While her next role is still being decided, one possibility is that she could be a deputy ambassador to the United Nations. Jewish Insider was first to report on the move.
Ortagus declined to comment. The State Department earlier this week declined to comment on personnel moves in Witkoff's office.
IT'S THURSDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at [e-mail], and follow Eric on X @ebazaileimil.
While you're at it, follow the rest of POLITICO's global security team on X and Bluesky at: @dave_brown24, @HeidiVogt, @jessicameyers, @RosiePerper, @nahaltoosi.bsky.social‬, @PhelimKine, @ak_mack, @felschwartz, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @reporterjoe, @JackDetsch, @samuelskove, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130 and @delizanickel
Keystrokes
A LOOMING SPECTRUM DEAL: A top GOP senator is insisting that lawmakers will smooth over final details hanging over a bill to open up access to spectrum for commercial usage.
Senate Commerce Chair TED CRUZ of Texas told our colleagues at Morning Tech (for Pros!) that he's 'confident' a deal will get done that opens up spectrum access without compromising important military and intelligence frequencies.
Some of the details of ongoing negotiations are already being shared publicly. Sen. MIKE ROUNDS (R-S.D.), a member of the Senate Armed Services and Intelligence Committees, told our colleagues Wednesday that a new agreement in the works would protect those key spectrum bands from auctions through 2034.
'It's looking better than it has in the past, and I think we're going to be able to get everything that we had concerns with,' he said, cautioning that the deal was still pending.
But the deal's fate has not yet been sealed. Cable and tech companies worry the GOP's spectrum plan could disrupt a key band of 3.5 GHz spectrum they operate some services in, and they may be ready to fight over the GOP plan.
The Complex
SCHIFF'S MILK MANEUVER: Sen. ADAM SCHIFF (D-Calif.) took to the Senate floor today to push a resolution urging the Defense Department to reverse course on its decision to rename ships commemorating civil rights advocates.
Schiff specifically called out Defense Secretary PETE HEGSETH's decision to rename a ship honoring gay rights advocate and veteran HARVEY MILK and to issue that decision during Pride Month. Schiff also connected the decision to other moves from Hegseth to downplay diversity and inclusion within the U.S. military.
'You can draw a straight line between the Department of Defense and this administration removing JACKIE ROBINSON from its official site and terminating the first woman to lead the military services and a well-respected African American chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, all without cause,' Schiff said. 'I don't understand how these removals promote the 'warrior ethos.''
Schiff pushed for unanimous consent on his resolution, which affirms support for the titles of the other John Lewis Class vessels named after American civil rights leaders. But Sen. TED BUDD (R-N.C.) objected, saying that the Biden administration betrayed Naval tradition by not consulting the 'plank owners' — the officers part of a vessel's original crew — about what they wanted to memorialize in naming the John Lewis Class of vessels.
On the Hill
FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — WITKOFF BRIEFS THE GOP: Trump's special envoy STEVE WITKOFF briefed a group of Republican senators focused on national security about the status of U.S. diplomacy with Iran on Thursday morning, according to three people familiar with the meeting.
The session, organized by Sen. JOHN BARRASSO (R-Wyo.), came after Trump on Wednesday said Tehran is 'slow-walking its decision' on whether to accept American proposals that would prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. 'We will need a definitive answer in a very short period of time!' Barasso's office confirmed the meeting and said it was off the record.
Last month, every GOP senator except for RAND PAUL (R-Ky.) sent Trump a letter urging him to make sure any deal ensures Iran permanently gives up any enrichment capacity. The U.S. has proposed allowing Tehran to enrich uranium for a limited period until the U.S. and allies can create a regional consortium for Iran and its neighbors that will provide civilian nuclear programs with needed fissile material.
FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — SUPPORTING SUDAN ACCOUNTABILITY: A coalition of advocacy groups is backing a bill from Sens. CHRIS MURPHY (D-Conn.) and CHRIS VAN HOLLEN (D-M.D.) to disapprove of arms sales to the United Arab Emirates over Abu Dhabi's support for the Rapid Support Forces in Sudan.
In an open letter to senators, organizations including Amnesty International, the Arms Control Association, Foreign Policy for America and the Center for Civilians in Conflict are urging lawmakers to back Murphy and Van Hollen's resolution. The groups argue that 'Civilians in Sudan have endured unimaginable suffering in a war marked by extensive abuses, which have been fueled by flows of weapons into the country.' They add that 'the United States should use its leverage to stem the flow of arms to the devastating conflict in Sudan.'
The bill faces an unclear future in the Senate, as Republicans are unlikely to vote to block arms sales to a U.S. ally the Trump administration has boosted cooperation with in recent months.
Broadsides
RWANDA RESPONDS TO M23 REPORTS: Rwanda is reiterating it has no ties to Congo-based M23, as human rights groups call attention to reports of the militant group's slaughter of civilians in eastern Congo.
A Rwandan official, granted anonymity because they were not authorized to speak on behalf of their government, acknowledged to Diya that 'we are sympathetic to their cause.' But the Rwandan official insisted that 'there's no direct communication Rwanda has with M23.' The official also blamed Kinshasa for the turmoil, arguing that 'people in eastern Congo are extremely detached from the capital' and called the region 'an empty non-governed area' that has created 'all sorts of havoc for the neighbors.'
The Rwandan rebuttal follows a Tuesday report from Human Rights Watch that M23 executed at least 21 Congolese citizens in February. The Trump administration is reportedly close to brokering a peace deal between Rwanda and Congo to end fighting in Congo's eastern provinces.
Transitions
— Trump's pick to be U.S. Europe Commander, Lt. Gen. ALEXUS GRYNKEWICH, will also be named Supreme Allied Commander of NATO, our own Paul McLeary reports.
— U.S. Ambassador to Georgia ROBIN DUNNIGAN, a career member of the Foreign Service, announced her retirement. Dunnigan was previously the deputy assistant secretary of State responsible for Central and Eastern Europe in the Bureau of European and Eurasian Affairs.
— ROBERT O'BRIEN, who served as Trump's national security adviser during the first Trump administration, is joining Booz Allen Hamilton's board of directors.
— KARI HEERMAN will join the Brookings Institution's economic studies program as a senior fellow and director of trade and economic statecraft on Aug. 11. Heerman, who was previously acting chief economist at the State Department, will lead a new effort to expand and coordinate cross-program work already being done at Brookings.
What to Read
— Nahal Toosi, POLITICO: Stop Asking How To Make Putin Walk Away From Ukraine. It's the Wrong Question.
— Eric Rosenbach and Researchers, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs: Critical and Emerging Technologies Index
— Gregory Ross, Americas Quarterly: U.S. and China Spar for Influence on the Paraguay-Paraná River System
Tomorrow Today
— National Institute for Deterrence Studies, 9 a.m: Deterring the New Pacing Threats of Opportunistic and Coordinated Aggression
— Center for Strategic and International Studies, 10:30 a.m.: 'Justice on the Ballot? The Impact of Mexico's Judicial Reform on the Rule of Law and Business Environment.'
— Hudson Institute, 3 p.m.: The Evolving Indo-Pacific Order
Thanks to our editors, Rosie Perper and Ester Wells, who should never be the namesakes of any Navy vessels.